Why Hagan has lost in North Carolina?
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  Why Hagan has lost in North Carolina?
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Author Topic: Why Hagan has lost in North Carolina?  (Read 1019 times)
Senator Cris
Cris
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« on: November 05, 2014, 09:58:13 AM »

Why?
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2014, 10:04:48 AM »

Because North Carolina has a one-term limit on all of their Senators (except Richard Burr, because 2010).
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2014, 10:06:51 AM »

I'll have some more detailied analysis coming, but long story short:

- She ran behind her baslines in the rural areas, especially out east.
- In terms of percenatges, she held up well in urban areas, but didn't get the raw turnout numbers.
- I'm convinced Haugh took more from her.

I'm still kinda beside myself, to be perfectly hones.
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BM
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2014, 10:08:10 AM »

She rode the Obama wave in 2008 and was on borrowed time ever since. Of course she always had a chance to win again, but the climate was too devastating this year.

She seems like a mediocre politician at best, which is how I feel about most of NC's pols for some reason.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2014, 10:10:02 AM »

Low turnout.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2014, 10:11:28 AM »
« Edited: November 05, 2014, 10:14:53 AM by Clarko95 »

Southern state, low turnout, more whites and Republicans, they voted for the guy with an (R) next to their name. Even as Obama lost by just 54,000 votes in 2012, they elected a GOP Governor and heavily Republican legislature.


Democratic base felt let down by Obama and the Democratic Party. The recovery shifted from low gear into medium gear in 2012 just in time to save Obama and many Dems, so people became more optimistic about the future after they remembered what happened just 4 years earlier. But in 2014, Obama owned the "moving sideways" economy. Unemployment was falling, 10 million jobs created, everyone gets health insurance, yes all good things, but the jobs being created weren't good and wages were stuck. The economy is always Issue #1.

Add onto this the IRS scandal, NSA stuff, VA's horrific failures, media-hype about Ebola, ISIS threatening Iraq and Syria, a resurgent Russia, etc. and you really do wonder what Obama was doing. You can argue that some things are simply out of his control (the recession was too deep, Russia is doing Russia, Ebola started in Africa, etc.), but on things like the ACA rollout, ISIS, the economy 6 years later, all the "scandals" that may not have begun under Obama but definitely continued under him, and the people who support him aren't so sure anymore and the people who hate Obama are fired up to oppose him.


Who was associated with all of the above? Senator Kay Hagan.  She narrowly won in 2008 (an extraordinary year for Democrats), and had to use 2009 - 2014 to build a resilient personal brand and motivate her base and win over swing voters, and she didn't do so. She could fight Tillis and Obama all she wanted, but the ground shifting underneath her was simply too much (just like Arkansas, Kentucky, Georgia, Montana, maybe Louisiana).

I expected her to survive this wave, but map for the whole country completely underestimated the Dems. She lost by only 50,000 votes, so if the wave was smaller or she cranked up turnout she could've survived. In the end, it was just too much for her to overcome.
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Sol
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2014, 10:15:37 AM »

Hagan probably would have pulled it out if this was even a little bit more favorable for Democrats.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2014, 10:17:18 AM »

Hagan was far too anonymous to escape the wave. It was a miracle she got Tillis as her opponent, she at least got a chance to defend her job. If she had got a A-list opponent, she would've been at least 5 points done and no chance to have a real race.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2014, 10:32:02 AM »

The strange thing is that Tillis already had a 2-point lead when Mecklenburg County was only reporting at 25% or so, and from what they were showing on TV the rest of the GOP base seemed to be already counted. I was expecting his lead to narrow, but it stayed still. Does someone have the details of the counting process to clear that up?
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Sol
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2014, 10:33:02 AM »

Maybe he overperformed in Mecklenburg?
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Miles
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2014, 10:37:37 AM »

Maybe he overperformed in Mecklenburg?

I was actually expecting Mecklenburg to be a tad closer. Hagan won 59/38.

I thought eastern NC usually reports first, but that wasn't the case last night. Charlotte and Greensboro were slower to report too, so that's probably why Tillis was already up.
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Smash255
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2014, 11:17:28 AM »

The strange thing is that Tillis already had a 2-point lead when Mecklenburg County was only reporting at 25% or so, and from what they were showing on TV the rest of the GOP base seemed to be already counted. I was expecting his lead to narrow, but it stayed still. Does someone have the details of the counting process to clear that up?

About 40% of the vote in Mecklenberg was early voting.  That could have already been counted in the 25% of precincts reporting, so while it may have been 25% reporting, it may have been closer to 60% of the votes already counted.  I didn't look at the raw vote #'s at the time to really tell though.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2014, 12:16:14 PM »






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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2014, 03:47:57 PM »

I'll have some more detailied analysis coming, but long story short:

- She ran behind her baslines in the rural areas, especially out east.
- In terms of percenatges, she held up well in urban areas, but didn't get the raw turnout numbers.
- I'm convinced Haugh took more from her.

I'm still kinda beside myself, to be perfectly hones.

I'm still upset Hagan lost. I was already mentally preparing myself for Senators Cotton, Ernst, Gardner, and Sullivan, so it didn't effect me much. But SEN. TILLIS?! ARE YOU F'ING KIDDING ME NORTH CAROLINA?!?!?!?

It only could've been worse if I had to think of a Sen. Brown or Sen. Gillespie...
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socaldem
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2014, 12:16:29 AM »

Because North Carolina has a one-term limit on all of their Senators (except Richard Burr, because 2010).

ROFLMAO!!
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2014, 12:24:04 AM »

Low turn-out and pretty much giving up in the last weeks because of the that that's pretty much it, her campaign was solid under the circumstances.

This leads me to believe she could actually take out Richard Burr like Elizabeth Dole,...if Clinton's coattails and a greater turn out happen,which they probably will.
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