"Tea Party" saves Obama/Dems from a 61/39 Senate
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 19, 2024, 08:01:32 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  "Tea Party" saves Obama/Dems from a 61/39 Senate
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: "Tea Party" saves Obama/Dems from a 61/39 Senate  (Read 2648 times)
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,660


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 05, 2014, 12:42:20 PM »
« edited: November 05, 2014, 01:12:56 PM by The Vorlon »

Obama Says "thanks"

2010 Senates that GOP "should" have won

O'Donnell - (Connecticut Delaware - If Castle isn't primaried by a witch, he wins easy, was up 10 in all polls)
Mourdock (Indiana)
Akin (#legitimate Rape) Missouri
Berg - (North Dakota)
Angle (Nevada)
Raese (West Virginia)
Buck (Colorado)

You can argue a couple of these (maybe WV and Col) But you have to believe in 2010 (which had a higher GOP vote than 2014) that mainstream GOP candidates could have picked off a few more senate seats....
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,882


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2014, 12:47:42 PM »

The GOP has a structural advantage in the Senate due to the large number of small, heavily GOP states in the Plains and West.
Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,660


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2014, 12:57:53 PM »

The GOP has a structural advantage in the Senate due to the large number of small, heavily GOP states in the Plains and West.

Blame Jefferson & Madison for "The Great Compromise"
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2014, 12:58:17 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Thanks for the 2016 target for GOP president, 60/40 majorities in Senate and House. All in reach in 2016.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,685
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2014, 12:59:16 PM »

O'Donnell was Delaware, though it's possible that Connecticut would have gone down in 2010 as well if the candidate had been somebody besides McMahon. I also think Montana would have gone down in 2012 if MO, IN, ND had gone republican also, due to a lack of rape comments to damage the whole republican brand.

So that ramps up the alternate universe GOP majority to 63-37.
Logged
Mopsus
MOPolitico
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,973
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.71, S: -1.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2014, 01:32:36 PM »

Eh, Sarah Steelman was more the TEA Party candidate than Todd Akin was.
Logged
Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,803
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.45, S: -3.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2014, 02:21:45 PM »

Eh, Sarah Steelman was more the TEA Party candidate than Todd Akin was.
Logged
Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,803
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.45, S: -3.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2014, 02:23:03 PM »

I don't think we can extrapolate across 3 elections like this. If the Pubs had taken the Senate 2 (or 4) years ago thinks could be a lot different. Then maybe last night wouldn't have been a wave, and might have been more like 98.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,708


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2014, 03:03:48 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Thanks for the 2016 target for GOP president, 60/40 majorities in Senate and House. All in reach in 2016.

Some of those races are 2012/2018 seats. There's no way the Republicans could have 60 Senators after 2016. Maybe 2018 if the Democrats continue down their same idiotic course.
Logged
Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,734


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2014, 03:15:46 PM »

Raese wasn't a Tea Party favorite. He was a WV perennial candidate in a year without much competition for the nomination.

I'm also not sure Chicken-lady or Casino Dude would have been able to knock off Reid. That was a race full of lightweights.
Logged
GaussLaw
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,279
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2014, 08:31:18 PM »

If the GOP already had the majority going into this election, they wouldn't have done nearly as well.  Their determination not to **** it up again is what caused them to do so well.
Logged
Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,169
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2014, 09:46:46 PM »

If the GOP already had the majority going into this election, they wouldn't have done nearly as well.  Their determination not to **** it up again is what caused them to do so well.

     Besides, it's normal to lose a race or two that you shouldn't due to poor recruitment and likewise. This 61-39 figure supposes almost perfect play on the part of the GOP. Even without the Tea Party, this is very far from likely.
Logged
Nichlemn
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,920


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2014, 09:50:00 PM »

I don't think Berg or Akin were "Tea Party" favourites.

It's interesting that the GOP appears not to have given away a single race to extremism this year.
Logged
Bigby
Mod_Libertarian_GOPer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,164
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: 3.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2014, 09:59:25 PM »

I don't think Berg or Akin were "Tea Party" favourites.

It's interesting that the GOP appears not to have given away a single race to extremism this year.

We learned not to submit to the crazies.
Logged
Panda Express
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,578


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2014, 10:47:11 PM »

The GOP has a structural advantage in the Senate due to the large number of small, heavily GOP states in the Plains and West.

Barack Obama needs to forcefully merge all these big useless states together. Merge SD and ND  into Dakota. Merge ID and UT into Mormonia. Merge AL and MS into Hillbillyland. Merge KY and WV into Appalachia. Wyoming doesn't deserve the same representation as California.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2014, 10:52:21 PM »

Akin was from the Huckabee wing, so he was definitely not touted as a Tea Partier, and Berg was just an idiot.
Logged
Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,803
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.45, S: -3.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2014, 11:19:02 PM »

The GOP has a structural advantage in the Senate due to the large number of small, heavily GOP states in the Plains and West.

Barack Obama needs to forcefully merge all these big useless states together. Merge SD and ND  into Dakota. Merge ID and UT into Mormonia. Merge AL and MS into Hillbillyland. Merge KY and WV into Appalachia. Wyoming doesn't deserve the same representation as California.

It be easier just to partition California.
Logged
Panda Express
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,578


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2014, 11:20:01 PM »

The GOP has a structural advantage in the Senate due to the large number of small, heavily GOP states in the Plains and West.

Barack Obama needs to forcefully merge all these big useless states together. Merge SD and ND  into Dakota. Merge ID and UT into Mormonia. Merge AL and MS into Hillbillyland. Merge KY and WV into Appalachia. Wyoming doesn't deserve the same representation as California.

It be easier just to partition California.

Sure, cut California in half down the middle. I'd be ok with that too.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,708


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2014, 11:20:37 PM »

I don't think Berg or Akin were "Tea Party" favourites.

It's interesting that the GOP appears not to have given away a single race to extremism this year.

We learned not to submit to the crazies.

No, it was just a year that even complete lunatics like Ernst won.
Logged
Knives
solopop
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,460
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2014, 11:27:31 PM »

If Republicans had of won those, don't you think 2014 Climate would have been different?
Logged
solarstorm
solarstorm2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,637
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2014, 12:31:18 AM »

I don't think Berg or Akin were "Tea Party" favourites.

It's interesting that the GOP appears not to have given away a single race to extremism this year.

Maybe not in the Senate, but Sam Brownback still holds the Governor's Mansion ...
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2014, 01:40:28 AM »

Obama Says "thanks"

2010 Senates that GOP "should" have won

O'Donnell - (Connecticut Delaware - If Castle isn't primaried by a witch, he wins easy, was up 10 in all polls)
Mourdock (Indiana)
Akin (#legitimate Rape) Missouri
Berg - (North Dakota)
Angle (Nevada)
Raese (West Virginia)
Buck (Colorado)

You can argue a couple of these (maybe WV and Col) But you have to believe in 2010 (which had a higher GOP vote than 2014) that mainstream GOP candidates could have picked off a few more senate seats....

The three seats where Republicans screwed up royally with gaffe-prone candidates were DE, IN and MO.

Manchin was a popular governor in WV and possibly the only D that could have maintained the seat.

I don't think it was as much as Angle was a terrible candidate (for NV) than Harry Reid is a master at ground game there. The result would have likely been the same no matter who he ran against. He's basically Houdini.

Berg wasn't the best candidate in ND. But she wasn't really a tea partier.

Colorado was just what it was at the end of the day.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2014, 02:53:00 AM »

Berg was as established as they come. Highly conservtive but an establishment type none the less.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2014, 02:54:20 AM »

Ann Coulter of all people pondered how nice it would have been to have Lugar, Steelman/Brunner, Castle and Simmons in the Senate right now.
Logged
Slander and/or Libel
Figs
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,338


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2014, 07:50:07 AM »

I don't think Berg or Akin were "Tea Party" favourites.

It's interesting that the GOP appears not to have given away a single race to extremism this year.

We learned not to submit to the crazies.

The crazies learned to be better at hiding/lying about their crazy.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.046 seconds with 12 queries.