IL: Oberweis won the collar counties (minus Lake)?!

[Mr. Illini]

How the hell did this happen? Durbin wins Gallatin and Pulaski Counties downstate but he loses Will County and every other collar as well except Lake?

Oberweis ran a near nonexistent campaign statewide. Was this a result of the Rauner hangover or did Oberweis actually run a good ground game in the burbs?

http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map/senate/illinois/#.VFqWqvldWnQ

[King]

This is what America looks like when only 50+ year old white people vote.

[IceSpear]

This is what America looks like when only 50+ year old white people vote.

LOL

To the simple truths mine.

[Vosem]

Durbin is from downstate back when it was more D than it is now; John Shimkus is his successor. (With 100% of precincts reporting, Shimkus was reelected, over a D opponent, 75%-25%, which shows how much the area has shifted). He might still have some residual support in places.

[RINO Tom]

Just because Obama did well in suburbs doesn't make them "blue regions."  They're clearly swing regions and have been for a very long time...  Why is this surprising?  The collar counties were very Republican for years, and they've turned into swing regions since the early and mid-2000s.  It should shock no one if they vote for Republicans...

[muon2]

Durbin is from downstate back when it was more D than it is now; John Shimkus is his successor. (With 100% of precincts reporting, Shimkus was reelected, over a D opponent, 75%-25%, which shows how much the area has shifted). He might still have some residual support in places.

Durbin does still get credit for his downstate roots. A downstater will get a few percent just for not being from Chicago.

How the hell did this happen? Durbin wins Gallatin and Pulaski Counties downstate but he loses Will County and every other collar as well except Lake?

Oberweis ran a near nonexistent campaign statewide. Was this a result of the Rauner hangover or did Oberweis actually run a good ground game in the burbs?

http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map/senate/illinois/#.VFqWqvldWnQ

Just because Obama did well in suburbs doesn't make them "blue regions."  They're clearly swing regions and have been for a very long time...  Why is this surprising?  The collar counties were very Republican for years, and they've turned into swing regions since the early and mid-2000s.  It should shock no one if they vote for Republicans...

Oberweis ran a substantial media campaign in Chicagoland beginning with radio ads aimed at Durbin during the primary. He continued with radio throughout the fall and added TV as well. As Vosem notes, the collar counties are still Pub-leaning and overperformed for Dems with Obama leading the ticket.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Low turnout election + Quinn's unpopularity + maybe some Obama unpopularity all conspired to drag Durbin down a bit. Same narrative as the country, only adjusted to Illinois.

The collar counties are swing counties. Will voted for Clinton in 1992, Lake + Will for him in 1996, Bush won all of them twice, Obama won all twice (minus McHenry in 2012, DuPage and Kane were pluralities).

They voted for Edgar twice in the 1990s, then Ryan in 2002, Like + Will split for Blago in 2006, then they all voted for Brady and Rauner.

In 1996 only Lake supported Durbin, all supported Fitzgerald in 1998, Lake + Will supported Durbin in 2002, all supported Obama in 2004 and Durbin in 2008, and all supported Kirk in 2010.

The 3 western/northwestern counties all returned to their Republican roots (not surprising), and Quinn/Rauner dragged Durbin down even more (just surprising by how much).

[freepcrusher]

(With 100% of precincts reporting, Shimkus was reelected, over a D opponent, 75%-25%, which shows how much the area has shifted).

Still, Shimkus's district is much different from his late 90s/early 00s seat. The more dem areas of the old IL-20 is in the 13th and the more republican areas of it are attached to the more republican parts of the old 19th and 15th to form a vote sink.

[KCDem]

Lots of straight-ticket anti-Dem voting in Illinois because Quinn and the legislative Dems suck.

[Mr. Illini]

Just because Obama did well in suburbs doesn't make them "blue regions."  They're clearly swing regions and have been for a very long time...  Why is this surprising?  The collar counties were very Republican for years, and they've turned into swing regions since the early and mid-2000s.  It should shock no one if they vote for Republicans...

Which is why I expected them to go for Rauner...

I didn't expect them to go red in an election where the Republican didn't have a chance.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given the margin of the election that's exactly what you'd expect. I'm sorry to be rude, but what did you imagine your state to be like?

[Mr. Illini]

Given the margin of the election that's exactly what you'd expect. I'm sorry to be rude, but what did you imagine your state to be like?

I would expect Durbin victories in Lake, Will, and at least DeKalb or Kane, and fewer Durbin victories downstate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given the margin of the election that's exactly what you'd expect. I'm sorry to be rude, but what did you imagine your state to be like?

I would expect Durbin victories in Lake, Will, and at least DeKalb or Kane, and fewer Durbin victories downstate.

...why?

[Dixie Reborn]

Durbin won by a smaller margin than McConnell.

[KCDem]

Durbin won by a smaller margin than McConnell.

Republican tsunami hits Illinois. News at 11.

[Mr. Illini]

Given the margin of the election that's exactly what you'd expect. I'm sorry to be rude, but what did you imagine your state to be like?

I would expect Durbin victories in Lake, Will, and at least DeKalb or Kane, and fewer Durbin victories downstate.

...why?

Because downstate has generally shifted red while the burbs have dramatically shifted blue. Rauner's numbers downstate were higher than in the burbs.