Which of these Democratic governors will win their reelection races if they run again?

[Frenchrepublican]

Whitmer- I'd say Tilt D at this point. She has some popularity as an incumbent, but this could also be a tossup/Lean R depending on the environment.

Sisolak- Tilt D as well. Nevada seems pretty inelastic and Democrats have a narrow structural advantage there.

Evers- Tilt R. If Walker were to run again, he'd be favored. After just narrowly winning in 2018 and 2020, both favorable Dem years, a Republican is favored in a Biden midterm. The covid situation in Wisconsin is pretty disastrous too.

Laura Kelly- Lean R. She's popular, and governors defy state partisanship often, but Kansas is Kansas and she won't be running against Kobach this time.

Tim Walz- Lean D. Republicans have no track record of winning in Minnesota in the recent past, and Dayton survived both 2010 and 2014 just fine, and I'd be surprised if the environment is that favorable to Republicans.

Abrams- Lean R. She lost in a Dem wave year in 2018. The national environment is gonna be 10 points to the right of that most likely and that'll be too much to overcome, even with Kemp's weakness and her strength. Georgia is very inelastic, so it'll be tight, but I'd expect Kemp +3/4.

Hard to see, GA is changing very fast.

Trump losing it to Biden in a upset is probably the beginning of the end for the Georgia GOP, Abrams could very well win despite a bad national climate for her party.

GA is not changing so fast. It will probably be 2 points to the right of the nation in 2022. My baseline for 2022 is a national environment with a slight tilt to the GOP. If Georgia PVI is R+2 and national is +2, then one would expect +4. Now, Abrams might have the wind at her back given Biden's win, but an incumbent Republican governor in a state that has still has an R lean in what will be a neutral/slight Republican year is lean R to me.

I think people often forget how the national environment can shape the competitiveness of specific races. What Democrats did better in 2010 than 2008? What Republicans did better in 2018 than 2016?

Simply put, if Abrams lost in 2018 during a D+8 year she's probably not going to win in an R+2 year, even if Georgia is changing quickly. I'm calling it Lean R, not likely/safe.

GA is immune to national waves, most democratic voters are blacks or white liberals, the political climate has no impact on them, they are going to vote democrat no matter what.

[kwabbit]

Whitmer- I'd say Tilt D at this point. She has some popularity as an incumbent, but this could also be a tossup/Lean R depending on the environment.

Sisolak- Tilt D as well. Nevada seems pretty inelastic and Democrats have a narrow structural advantage there.

Evers- Tilt R. If Walker were to run again, he'd be favored. After just narrowly winning in 2018 and 2020, both favorable Dem years, a Republican is favored in a Biden midterm. The covid situation in Wisconsin is pretty disastrous too.

Laura Kelly- Lean R. She's popular, and governors defy state partisanship often, but Kansas is Kansas and she won't be running against Kobach this time.

Tim Walz- Lean D. Republicans have no track record of winning in Minnesota in the recent past, and Dayton survived both 2010 and 2014 just fine, and I'd be surprised if the environment is that favorable to Republicans.

Abrams- Lean R. She lost in a Dem wave year in 2018. The national environment is gonna be 10 points to the right of that most likely and that'll be too much to overcome, even with Kemp's weakness and her strength. Georgia is very inelastic, so it'll be tight, but I'd expect Kemp +3/4.

Hard to see, GA is changing very fast.

Trump losing it to Biden in a upset is probably the beginning of the end for the Georgia GOP, Abrams could very well win despite a bad national climate for her party.

GA is not changing so fast. It will probably be 2 points to the right of the nation in 2022. My baseline for 2022 is a national environment with a slight tilt to the GOP. If Georgia PVI is R+2 and national is +2, then one would expect +4. Now, Abrams might have the wind at her back given Biden's win, but an incumbent Republican governor in a state that has still has an R lean in what will be a neutral/slight Republican year is lean R to me.

I think people often forget how the national environment can shape the competitiveness of specific races. What Democrats did better in 2010 than 2008? What Republicans did better in 2018 than 2016?

Simply put, if Abrams lost in 2018 during a D+8 year she's probably not going to win in an R+2 year, even if Georgia is changing quickly. I'm calling it Lean R, not likely/safe.

GA is immune to national waves, most democratic voters are blacks or white liberals, the political climate has no impact on them, they are going to vote democrat no matter what.

GA is not perfectly inelastic. It doesn't move much compared to the nation, put it still tracks somewhat. Dems did better in 2008, terribly in 2010, better in 2012, poorly in 2014 (considering they were running a Carter and a Nunn against uninspiring candidates), ok in 2016, well in 2018, and well in 2020. It's not as if it's the same regardless of a 10 point swing in the national environment. Plus, the type of voters that pushed Biden over the line, College-educated Whites in the suburbs, are the elastic type. That group will give Georgia more swing as they become a larger portion of the population.