2018 Governors- the Democrats silver lining?

[Devils30]

Okay, it was a horrible evening for Democrats at the state level no questions asked. That said, the elections all involved facing well- funded incumbent governors with an unpopular Democratic president on the ballot. 2018 is really the important year for Governors races as it comes right before redistricting a couple years after. Democrats in Florida in the long run may be better with Graham or Murphy running that year instead of an unpopular Crist. WI, MI, OH and VA in 2021 are also crucial states. The first three should be good opportunities for Dems as these Midwestern states seem to give each side 8 years more often than not.

[Vega]

I don't see the 2018 FL Governor's race going any better for Democrats. The state party has no strong bench at this point.

[Lief 🗽]

I don't see the 2018 FL Governor's race going any better for Democrats. The state party has no strong bench at this point.

[IceSpear]

I don't see the 2018 FL Governor's race going any better for Democrats. The state party has no strong bench at this point.

[Mr. Smith]

Unless the GOP implodes, some kind of new terrorist crisis puts most people behind the Dems, or some kind of social program ends up being real effective....No

I can see the blue states switching at best, but at the end of the day, 2018 is midterm season and low turnout will just give it to the GOP as usual

[Lief 🗽]

I don't see the 2018 FL Governor's race going any better for Democrats. The state party has no strong bench at this point.

Yup, I don't care who runs for what, but one of them needs to be governor and the other needs to be senator.

[Donerail]

I don't see the 2018 FL Governor's race going any better for Democrats. The state party has no strong bench at this point.

Or Buddy Dyer, Dan Gelber, Kathy Castor, DWS, or Charlie Crist again.

[Thomas D]

I think these are the states where the current Governors can't run again in 2018

[IceSpear]

I don't see the 2018 FL Governor's race going any better for Democrats. The state party has no strong bench at this point.

Or Buddy Dyer, Dan Gelber, Kathy Castor, DWS, or Charlie Crist again.

Kidding? Crist is DONE. He lost as a Republican, lost as an independent, and now lost to a criminal as a Democrat in a race he was supposed to win easily. His political career is over.

[Devils30]

Dems could have won an open seat in Michigan and Wisconsin yesterday. As for Florida you really can't rule out anything in 4 years. All depends on various factors and if Crist had run like Graham did in FL-2, he probably would have won statewide.

[LeBron]

The problem with Murphy and Graham is I think Murphy's being recruited in a bigger sense to run against Rubio for Senate in 2016 while Graham national Dems need in that House seat too make sure it doesn't go anywhere. DWS is considered a Democratic hack and unfortunately wouldn't be able to get elected statewide in FL, Sink is a perennial loser, Crist is a perennial loser, and yeah. Maybe Castor could run for FL-Gov in 2018, but as it stands, the FL-GOP has a stronger standing bench.

Same goes for Ohio admittedly, but I think we have a notably strong rising Democratic bench. The problem is, a lot of rising stars in the ODP like P.G. Sittenfeld, Nan Whaley and Kathleen Clyde aren't experienced enough to be running for Governor in 2018, and we would need someone like Richard Cordray (most preferably), or maybe Tim Ryan to get the ball rolling again. On the GOP side of things, aside from Jon Husted who's likely to be the GOP nominee for Governor in 2018, there's other choices in Lt. Governor Mary Taylor, Attorney General Mike DeWine, incoming Speaker Cliff Rosenberger, very well-liked, moderate two-term State Senator Frank LaRose, and a big list of others.

Most Governorships we probably can win back in 2018, and man do we need them if Democrats have any hope of doing well statewide again going into the next decade. Undoubtedly, with Kasich, Scott, Snyder, Brownback etc. with comfortable legislatures on their side and none of them worrying about running for re-election ever again, they can pass what they couldn't in their first term that would have otherwise gotten a lot of uproar from the voters at the polls. Kasich, Scott and others don't have to worry about that now.

Plus after two terms of Governors, voters grow tired of that party being in the Governor's Mansion in some states. The re-elections of all of these anti-labor, anti-poor, anti-gay governors last night hurt in the short term, but in the long term, this could help us win big in the Governor's Mansions if Dems get the right candidates in these open seats.

[IceSpear]

Adam, I think it may be time for a sig change.

[Panda Express]

Yeah, it is more important that we win the governships in 2018 because of redistrcting. If there is any chance of taking back the house in the forseeable future, it will be busting the gerrymanders in the bigger states. So losing in 2014 isn't the end of the world as it is 2018 that really counts.

[Vega]

Adam, I think it may be time for a sig change.

Why? He's prepping for FitzGerald 2018.

[KingSweden]

Incumbents are hard to beat. I think open seat races are a great possibility.

I'll break down my (very early and in all likelihood super wrong) thoughts on the 2018 governors races as I see them now, from Totally Safe D to Totally Safe R:

HI - this is the only seat I can't see a Republican winning. Aiona blew two chances and Ige seems like a competent, run-of-the-mill Asian machine Dem.

CA - I wasn't impressed with Kashkari and I don't know who else CA GOP has that could be competitive here. They couldn't take an open seat in 2010 of all years, and DiFi (or maybe her replacement) will top the ticket. I foresee Newsom being the Dem nominee here, though the Cali Dem bench is pretty dang deep. Harris I think goes for Senate either in '16 or '18.

OR - I think Richardson got within striking distance of Kitzhaber because of the wife allegations. I don't know who the OR GOP runs here, and losing leg seats last night can't be encouraging to their prospects. Dems probably run some row officer like AG or whatever.

MN - I can't picture who the GOP has that can match up against Lori Swanson, especially with Dayton and Franken doing well this year. This will probably still be closer than it should be.

ME - No LePage and no Cutler (hopefully). This race could really go anywhere, of course, but I think the Maine Dems will try to rebuild their bench after last night's debacle. King being on the ballot (if he runs) probably doesn't hurt either. I could see Pingree or predecessor Tom Allen taking the dive here, or maybe Michaud wants a do-over. I figure he's done, though.

RI - I imagine Raimondo has a tougher time in the primary than the general.

CT - Without Malloy, this might actually be a tougher hold for CT Dems than otherwise. I could see some U.S. Rep jumping down here at the tail of their career.

MD - Hogan probably doesn't last more than one term, at least I'd be surprised if he did. MD Dems will want to lock in another gerrymander in 2020 and need him out of the way to avoid a veto. Sarbanes or Van Hollen would be US Reps who I doubt run, but maybe Delaney?

PA - This depends on how Wolf does. Phil thinks the Leg will torture him like in a Saw movie, but I think he'll do okay. Lots of small-ball stuff. DGA will want to keep him around for redistricting, this will be a marquee race. Meehan or Dent could run here, especially if they survive a hypothetical Clinton wave and show crossover support.

WI - I actually think this is a likelier get for D's than Michigan. I think the D's will be desperate to come back after 8 years of Walker/Kleefisch and make this their #1 pickup priority. Kleefisch, for a variety of reasons, I doubt inspires the same kind of excitement for Wisconsin's conservatives that Walker does.

CO - After 12 years of D control here, who knows. Hick got an open seat in 2010 and survived what was clearly an R backlash this year (it helps that he didn't run a single-issue sh*t campaign). R's have some good downballot options (AG, SOS, etc) who have statewide victory experience. Not sure who the D's have that's a credible statewide candidate. With CO likely gaining a CD after 2020, redistricting here could be huge.

MI - Having Stabenow on top of the ballot, if she runs again (I assume she does) has to help whoever the Dems recruit. Probably not Schauer again, though he did acquit himself admirably. I suspect Schuette is the GOP nominee. I imagine he starts as the favorite, though it'll be close. Closer than this year.

IL - This all depends on how Rauner interacts with the leg. IL has a history of electing GOP Governors and voters may see him as a good check on the D state leg, though he'll have to cut a pretty moderate profile. I imagine this state continues to be a mess either way.

MA - I think Baker has good odds here, for no reason other than this state has a history of electing and reelecting moderate R's. I do think Joe Kennedy III or Seth Moulton run statewide eventually, but that'd probably be for Markey's seat in 2020 or in 2022. Though with Warren atop the ballot, you never know who might try to create a coattail effect here.

OH - I doubt the D bench here will be recovered for quite a while. Maybe Tim Ryan runs, who knows. Kasich and co. did a number last night. Husted seems like a solid frontrunner, if kind of a scummy vote suppressor.

NM - I really have no clear who the bench for the D's here is, other than maybe Hector Balderas. Someone with more knowledge of this state could have input.

IA - I actually think the R bench here is very solid with Reynolds, Northey and others. I don't think either Tom Miller the AG or the other long-interred Treasurer run here, so I'm not sure who the D's put up. Vilsack, perhaps? If it's Braley, I'd probably have a stroke.

NV - This would have been further up the D end of the list had Sandoval and company not wiped out all of the D's rising stars. Miller would have been an early favorite here.

AZ - Assuming Ducey is a disaster, this might be competitive. Probably not, though. AZ is probably a few cycles away without presidential-level turnout. I'm more curious what happens to Flake this year though.

GA - Reed might be a viable statewide candidate, or a redux by Carter or Nunn statewide this year. Question is if GA is ready for a black Democrat as governor, even one who is fairly conservative. Kemp or Cagle could be top recruits, or maybe Tom Graves.

AR - Doubt the Arkansas Dems can recover this quickly. Hutchinson seems like a likely re-elect.

TN - Rumor is Corker wants this slot and Haslam would run for Senate instead. I can't think of any TN Dems who can compete with Corker at this level.

TX - Abbott is likely a shoo-in, even with a hypothetical Julian Castro candidacy.

SC, AL, ID, NE, KS, WY - These should (and likely will be) uncompetitive.

If I made any mistakes or made any poor conclusions, feel free to correct me/add your thoughts!

[Vega]

I honestly don't know who the Republicans could run for Hawaii Gov.

Djou has lost 3 times for Congress... so maybe him. Aiona is done. Richard Fale I guess could be an option.

[Flake]

Or Buddy Dyer, Dan Gelber, Kathy Castor, DWS, or Charlie Crist again.

Kidding? Crist is DONE. He lost as a Republican, lost as an independent, and now lost to a criminal as a Democrat in a race he was supposed to win easily. His political career is over.

Buddy Dyer is pretty boring, as well as Gelber. Castor seems that she cannot break the Florida Republican Party machine, DWS and Crist are absolutely terrible options that should not be considered.

[Vega]

Bill Nelson could run. I doubt he will, though.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

The problem with Murphy and Graham is I think Murphy's being recruited in a bigger sense to run against Rubio for Senate in 2016 while Graham national Dems need in that House seat too make sure it doesn't go anywhere. DWS is considered a Democratic hack and unfortunately wouldn't be able to get elected statewide in FL, Sink is a perennial loser, Crist is a perennial loser, and yeah. Maybe Castor could run for FL-Gov in 2018, but as it stands, the FL-GOP has a stronger standing bench.

^^
The only rising star the Democrats have is Pat Murphy, and I wouldn't waste him if I were you guys. He won't beat Rubio, but he could hold Bill Nelson's seat when he retires in 2018. Castor has no future outside of the House. Too bland and unknown.

Everybody hates DWS anyway.

[KingSweden]

The problem with Murphy and Graham is I think Murphy's being recruited in a bigger sense to run against Rubio for Senate in 2016 while Graham national Dems need in that House seat too make sure it doesn't go anywhere. DWS is considered a Democratic hack and unfortunately wouldn't be able to get elected statewide in FL, Sink is a perennial loser, Crist is a perennial loser, and yeah. Maybe Castor could run for FL-Gov in 2018, but as it stands, the FL-GOP has a stronger standing bench.

^^
The only rising star the Democrats have is Pat Murphy, and I wouldn't waste him if I were you guys. He won't beat Rubio, but he could hold Bill Nelson's seat when he retires in 2018. Castor has no future outside of the House. Too bland and unknown.

Everybody hates DWS anyway.

I'd rather have Murphy try to hang on to Nelson's seat than try to take out Rubio. Knowing FL Dems, they'll try to cajole him into sacrificing himself in 2016. What about Ted Deutch or Alvin Brown? I'll admit I know very little about either of them.

[Devils30]

Not sure Murphy should decline to challenge Rubio. His approvals are pretty mediocre and Hillary might help at the top. The higher turnout wouldn't hurt either and he can fundraise quite well.

[Devils30]

Gut feeling is that PA isn't in play next time. Rarely see two one term governors in a row from different parties. Wolf might be able to get popular support from taking on the legislature.

Don't rule out the GOP winning MA MD IL. Those are all moderate republicans who are businessmen and who don't seem to care at all about social issues.

Still think synder isn't really that popular and dems would be favored in MI and WI. The GOP will try to take out Gwen Graham in 2016 before she can run for governor but I doubt she'll have trouble winning in  a presidential year. Scott might drag Putnam down in 2018 and be more of a pain for the GOP than Crist would have been a boon for Hillary. Ohio is the least likely of the bunch.

[socaldem]

The problem with Murphy and Graham is I think Murphy's being recruited in a bigger sense to run against Rubio for Senate in 2016 while Graham national Dems need in that House seat too make sure it doesn't go anywhere. DWS is considered a Democratic hack and unfortunately wouldn't be able to get elected statewide in FL, Sink is a perennial loser, Crist is a perennial loser, and yeah. Maybe Castor could run for FL-Gov in 2018, but as it stands, the FL-GOP has a stronger standing bench.

^^
The only rising star the Democrats have is Pat Murphy, and I wouldn't waste him if I were you guys. He won't beat Rubio, but he could hold Bill Nelson's seat when he retires in 2018. Castor has no future outside of the House. Too bland and unknown.

Everybody hates DWS anyway.

I'd rather have Murphy try to hang on to Nelson's seat than try to take out Rubio. Knowing FL Dems, they'll try to cajole him into sacrificing himself in 2016. What about Ted Deutch or Alvin Brown? I'll admit I know very little about either of them.

Both Murphy and Graham have star potential and will not be staying in the House--and it would be foolish, ultimately, for them to even try to stay in the House long term.

Dems may have a couple good cycles, but in this era of highly polarized politics, the seats will inevitably flip whereas as statewide politicians, I imagine that both of them could become more-or-less, entrenched. Ideally one of them will succeed Nelson or run if there is an open Rubio seat. The other, would run for Governor and, after serving two terms (or 1.5 terms) would challenge Rubio.

[BM]

I don't see the 2018 FL Governor's race going any better for Democrats. The state party has no strong bench at this point.

Yup, I don't care who runs for what, but one of them needs to be governor and the other needs to be senator.

YES!

I barely know anything about them and I already know they're better than the likes of Sink and Crist.

[Donerail]

I don't see the 2018 FL Governor's race going any better for Democrats. The state party has no strong bench at this point.

[Graham]

[Murphy]

[Buckhorn]
Or Buddy Dyer, Dan Gelber, Kathy Castor, DWS, or Charlie Crist again.

Kidding? Crist is DONE. He lost as a Republican, lost as an independent, and now lost to a criminal as a Democrat in a race he was supposed to win easily. His political career is over.

I seem to recall folks here talking about - some even supporting - a Sink candidacy in 2014. Given the FL Dem bench, any candidate with a modicum of political skill has to be considered part of the potential bench. Let's say Murphy/Graham/Castor stay in their House seats (like Castor has done for the past several cycles), DWS runs and loses Senate in 2016, and Buckhorn declines to run. Who do you run then?