2018 Governors- the Democrats silver lining?
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  2018 Governors- the Democrats silver lining?
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #25 on: November 06, 2014, 02:43:13 PM »

I don't see the 2018 FL Governor's race going any better for Democrats. The state party has no strong bench at this point.
[Graham]
[Murphy]
[Buckhorn]
Or Buddy Dyer, Dan Gelber, Kathy Castor, DWS, or Charlie Crist again.

Kidding? Crist is DONE. He lost as a Republican, lost as an independent, and now lost to a criminal as a Democrat in a race he was supposed to win easily. His political career is over.

I seem to recall folks here talking about - some even supporting - a Sink candidacy in 2014. Given the FL Dem bench, any candidate with a modicum of political skill has to be considered part of the potential bench. Let's say Murphy/Graham/Castor stay in their House seats (like Castor has done for the past several cycles), DWS runs and loses Senate in 2016, and Buckhorn declines to run. Who do you run then?
Recruit some dude in the state house to run.  A third run for Crist would be horrible.
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Donerail
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« Reply #26 on: November 06, 2014, 02:49:26 PM »

I don't see the 2018 FL Governor's race going any better for Democrats. The state party has no strong bench at this point.
[Graham]
[Murphy]
[Buckhorn]
Or Buddy Dyer, Dan Gelber, Kathy Castor, DWS, or Charlie Crist again.

Kidding? Crist is DONE. He lost as a Republican, lost as an independent, and now lost to a criminal as a Democrat in a race he was supposed to win easily. His political career is over.

I seem to recall folks here talking about - some even supporting - a Sink candidacy in 2014. Given the FL Dem bench, any candidate with a modicum of political skill has to be considered part of the potential bench. Let's say Murphy/Graham/Castor stay in their House seats (like Castor has done for the past several cycles), DWS runs and loses Senate in 2016, and Buckhorn declines to run. Who do you run then?
Recruit some dude in the state house to run.  A third run for Crist would be horrible.

The State House now has a GOP supermajority - difficult enough to find one of them willing to go from a part-time job to a full-time statewide campaign with a dozen times the level of media scrutiny.
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henster
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« Reply #27 on: November 07, 2014, 01:06:49 AM »

Miller probably runs for Governor in 2018 regardless. Look out for Morgan Carroll in CO and Gretchen Whitmer in MI also Chris Abele in WI.
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Vega
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« Reply #28 on: November 07, 2014, 05:49:10 PM »

How many Democratic mayors are there in Florida? Maybe we can get one of them to run?
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Donerail
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« Reply #29 on: November 07, 2014, 06:09:57 PM »

How many Democratic mayors are there in Florida? Maybe we can get one of them to run?

You've got Bob Buckhorn (Tampa), Buddy Dyer (Orlando), and maybe Alvin Brown (Jacksonville).
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Vega
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« Reply #30 on: November 07, 2014, 06:20:04 PM »

How many Democratic mayors are there in Florida? Maybe we can get one of them to run?

You've got Bob Buckhorn (Tampa), Buddy Dyer (Orlando), and maybe Alvin Brown (Jacksonville).

From what Google can turn up, Buckhorn and Brown look like the best potential candidates for Governor.

Is there any sign that they might run?
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Free Bird
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« Reply #31 on: November 07, 2014, 07:46:00 PM »

Watch Hogan become the most popular governor in the country
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Donerail
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« Reply #32 on: November 09, 2014, 10:20:08 AM »

How many Democratic mayors are there in Florida? Maybe we can get one of them to run?

You've got Bob Buckhorn (Tampa), Buddy Dyer (Orlando), and maybe Alvin Brown (Jacksonville).

From what Google can turn up, Buckhorn and Brown look like the best potential candidates for Governor.

Is there any sign that they might run?

Buckhorn yes, Brown probably not (he'll likely lose his 2015 re-election bid, and is far more conservative than Charlie Crist besides).
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Person Man
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« Reply #33 on: November 10, 2014, 08:19:25 PM »

Bob Buckhorn is definitely someone worth looking at.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #34 on: November 22, 2014, 02:18:18 PM »

Incumbents are hard to beat. I think open seat races are a great possibility.

I'll break down my (very early and in all likelihood super wrong) thoughts on the 2018 governors races as I see them now, from Totally Safe D to Totally Safe R:

HI - this is the only seat I can't see a Republican winning. Aiona blew two chances and Ige seems like a competent, run-of-the-mill Asian machine Dem.

CA - I wasn't impressed with Kashkari and I don't know who else CA GOP has that could be competitive here. They couldn't take an open seat in 2010 of all years, and DiFi (or maybe her replacement) will top the ticket. I foresee Newsom being the Dem nominee here, though the Cali Dem bench is pretty dang deep. Harris I think goes for Senate either in '16 or '18.

OR - I think Richardson got within striking distance of Kitzhaber because of the wife allegations. I don't know who the OR GOP runs here, and losing leg seats last night can't be encouraging to their prospects. Dems probably run some row officer like AG or whatever.

MN - I can't picture who the GOP has that can match up against Lori Swanson, especially with Dayton and Franken doing well this year. This will probably still be closer than it should be.

ME - No LePage and no Cutler (hopefully). This race could really go anywhere, of course, but I think the Maine Dems will try to rebuild their bench after last night's debacle. King being on the ballot (if he runs) probably doesn't hurt either. I could see Pingree or predecessor Tom Allen taking the dive here, or maybe Michaud wants a do-over. I figure he's done, though.

RI - I imagine Raimondo has a tougher time in the primary than the general.

CT - Without Malloy, this might actually be a tougher hold for CT Dems than otherwise. I could see some U.S. Rep jumping down here at the tail of their career.

MD - Hogan probably doesn't last more than one term, at least I'd be surprised if he did. MD Dems will want to lock in another gerrymander in 2020 and need him out of the way to avoid a veto. Sarbanes or Van Hollen would be US Reps who I doubt run, but maybe Delaney?

PA - This depends on how Wolf does. Phil thinks the Leg will torture him like in a Saw movie, but I think he'll do okay. Lots of small-ball stuff. DGA will want to keep him around for redistricting, this will be a marquee race. Meehan or Dent could run here, especially if they survive a hypothetical Clinton wave and show crossover support.

WI - I actually think this is a likelier get for D's than Michigan. I think the D's will be desperate to come back after 8 years of Walker/Kleefisch and make this their #1 pickup priority. Kleefisch, for a variety of reasons, I doubt inspires the same kind of excitement for Wisconsin's conservatives that Walker does.

CO - After 12 years of D control here, who knows. Hick got an open seat in 2010 and survived what was clearly an R backlash this year (it helps that he didn't run a single-issue sh*t campaign). R's have some good downballot options (AG, SOS, etc) who have statewide victory experience. Not sure who the D's have that's a credible statewide candidate. With CO likely gaining a CD after 2020, redistricting here could be huge.

MI - Having Stabenow on top of the ballot, if she runs again (I assume she does) has to help whoever the Dems recruit. Probably not Schauer again, though he did acquit himself admirably. I suspect Schuette is the GOP nominee. I imagine he starts as the favorite, though it'll be close. Closer than this year.

IL - This all depends on how Rauner interacts with the leg. IL has a history of electing GOP Governors and voters may see him as a good check on the D state leg, though he'll have to cut a pretty moderate profile. I imagine this state continues to be a mess either way.

MA - I think Baker has good odds here, for no reason other than this state has a history of electing and reelecting moderate R's. I do think Joe Kennedy III or Seth Moulton run statewide eventually, but that'd probably be for Markey's seat in 2020 or in 2022. Though with Warren atop the ballot, you never know who might try to create a coattail effect here.

OH - I doubt the D bench here will be recovered for quite a while. Maybe Tim Ryan runs, who knows. Kasich and co. did a number last night. Husted seems like a solid frontrunner, if kind of a scummy vote suppressor.

NM - I really have no clear who the bench for the D's here is, other than maybe Hector Balderas. Someone with more knowledge of this state could have input.

IA - I actually think the R bench here is very solid with Reynolds, Northey and others. I don't think either Tom Miller the AG or the other long-interred Treasurer run here, so I'm not sure who the D's put up. Vilsack, perhaps? If it's Braley, I'd probably have a stroke.

NV - This would have been further up the D end of the list had Sandoval and company not wiped out all of the D's rising stars. Miller would have been an early favorite here.

AZ - Assuming Ducey is a disaster, this might be competitive. Probably not, though. AZ is probably a few cycles away without presidential-level turnout. I'm more curious what happens to Flake this year though.

GA - Reed might be a viable statewide candidate, or a redux by Carter or Nunn statewide this year. Question is if GA is ready for a black Democrat as governor, even one who is fairly conservative. Kemp or Cagle could be top recruits, or maybe Tom Graves.

AR - Doubt the Arkansas Dems can recover this quickly. Hutchinson seems like a likely re-elect.

TN - Rumor is Corker wants this slot and Haslam would run for Senate instead. I can't think of any TN Dems who can compete with Corker at this level.

TX - Abbott is likely a shoo-in, even with a hypothetical Julian Castro candidacy.

SC, AL, ID, NE, KS, WY - These should (and likely will be) uncompetitive.

If I made any mistakes or made any poor conclusions, feel free to correct me/add your thoughts! Smiley

What about New York? As there is no term limit in this state, I wouldn't rule another Cuomo candidacy out. His father and George Pataki both served three terms in the Executive Mansion.
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Person Man
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« Reply #35 on: November 22, 2014, 04:45:20 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2014, 04:48:13 PM by Deliverance »

Incumbents are hard to beat. I think open seat races are a great possibility.

I'll break down my (very early and in all likelihood super wrong) thoughts on the 2018 governors races as I see them now, from Totally Safe D to Totally Safe R:

HI - this is the only seat I can't see a Republican winning. Aiona blew two chances and Ige seems like a competent, run-of-the-mill Asian machine Dem.

CA - I wasn't impressed with Kashkari and I don't know who else CA GOP has that could be competitive here. They couldn't take an open seat in 2010 of all years, and DiFi (or maybe her replacement) will top the ticket. I foresee Newsom being the Dem nominee here, though the Cali Dem bench is pretty dang deep. Harris I think goes for Senate either in '16 or '18.

OR - I think Richardson got within striking distance of Kitzhaber because of the wife allegations. I don't know who the OR GOP runs here, and losing leg seats last night can't be encouraging to their prospects. Dems probably run some row officer like AG or whatever.

MN - I can't picture who the GOP has that can match up against Lori Swanson, especially with Dayton and Franken doing well this year. This will probably still be closer than it should be.

ME - No LePage and no Cutler (hopefully). This race could really go anywhere, of course, but I think the Maine Dems will try to rebuild their bench after last night's debacle. King being on the ballot (if he runs) probably doesn't hurt either. I could see Pingree or predecessor Tom Allen taking the dive here, or maybe Michaud wants a do-over. I figure he's done, though.

RI - I imagine Raimondo has a tougher time in the primary than the general.

CT - Without Malloy, this might actually be a tougher hold for CT Dems than otherwise. I could see some U.S. Rep jumping down here at the tail of their career.

MD - Hogan probably doesn't last more than one term, at least I'd be surprised if he did. MD Dems will want to lock in another gerrymander in 2020 and need him out of the way to avoid a veto. Sarbanes or Van Hollen would be US Reps who I doubt run, but maybe Delaney?

PA - This depends on how Wolf does. Phil thinks the Leg will torture him like in a Saw movie, but I think he'll do okay. Lots of small-ball stuff. DGA will want to keep him around for redistricting, this will be a marquee race. Meehan or Dent could run here, especially if they survive a hypothetical Clinton wave and show crossover support.

WI - I actually think this is a likelier get for D's than Michigan. I think the D's will be desperate to come back after 8 years of Walker/Kleefisch and make this their #1 pickup priority. Kleefisch, for a variety of reasons, I doubt inspires the same kind of excitement for Wisconsin's conservatives that Walker does.

CO - After 12 years of D control here, who knows. Hick got an open seat in 2010 and survived what was clearly an R backlash this year (it helps that he didn't run a single-issue sh*t campaign). R's have some good downballot options (AG, SOS, etc) who have statewide victory experience. Not sure who the D's have that's a credible statewide candidate. With CO likely gaining a CD after 2020, redistricting here could be huge.

MI - Having Stabenow on top of the ballot, if she runs again (I assume she does) has to help whoever the Dems recruit. Probably not Schauer again, though he did acquit himself admirably. I suspect Schuette is the GOP nominee. I imagine he starts as the favorite, though it'll be close. Closer than this year.

IL - This all depends on how Rauner interacts with the leg. IL has a history of electing GOP Governors and voters may see him as a good check on the D state leg, though he'll have to cut a pretty moderate profile. I imagine this state continues to be a mess either way.

MA - I think Baker has good odds here, for no reason other than this state has a history of electing and reelecting moderate R's. I do think Joe Kennedy III or Seth Moulton run statewide eventually, but that'd probably be for Markey's seat in 2020 or in 2022. Though with Warren atop the ballot, you never know who might try to create a coattail effect here.

OH - I doubt the D bench here will be recovered for quite a while. Maybe Tim Ryan runs, who knows. Kasich and co. did a number last night. Husted seems like a solid frontrunner, if kind of a scummy vote suppressor.

NM - I really have no clear who the bench for the D's here is, other than maybe Hector Balderas. Someone with more knowledge of this state could have input.

IA - I actually think the R bench here is very solid with Reynolds, Northey and others. I don't think either Tom Miller the AG or the other long-interred Treasurer run here, so I'm not sure who the D's put up. Vilsack, perhaps? If it's Braley, I'd probably have a stroke.

NV - This would have been further up the D end of the list had Sandoval and company not wiped out all of the D's rising stars. Miller would have been an early favorite here.

AZ - Assuming Ducey is a disaster, this might be competitive. Probably not, though. AZ is probably a few cycles away without presidential-level turnout. I'm more curious what happens to Flake this year though.

GA - Reed might be a viable statewide candidate, or a redux by Carter or Nunn statewide this year. Question is if GA is ready for a black Democrat as governor, even one who is fairly conservative. Kemp or Cagle could be top recruits, or maybe Tom Graves.

AR - Doubt the Arkansas Dems can recover this quickly. Hutchinson seems like a likely re-elect.

TN - Rumor is Corker wants this slot and Haslam would run for Senate instead. I can't think of any TN Dems who can compete with Corker at this level.

TX - Abbott is likely a shoo-in, even with a hypothetical Julian Castro candidacy.

SC, AL, ID, NE, KS, WY - These should (and likely will be) uncompetitive.

If I made any mistakes or made any poor conclusions, feel free to correct me/add your thoughts! Smiley

What about New York? As there is no term limit in this state, I wouldn't rule another Cuomo candidacy out. His father and George Pataki both served three terms in the Executive Mansion.

I'd definitely see Democrats looking for "outsider" candidates for 2016 and beyond. They will probably be recruiting from business, industry(the likes of Warner and Kaine), the military (Duckworth, Hackett) and even from entertainers/athletes (Schuler).  I remember from 2006 that Democrats recruited quite a bit from the military.

With a lack of candidates coming out of the grassroots, it could be a very good year for Democrats to campaign "from the outside" in 2018, especially if Democrats don't do too well. They can be the concerned successful work citizens and patriots trying upset career politicians, lawyers and lobbyists.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #36 on: November 23, 2014, 01:34:36 PM »

Bob Buckhorn is definitely someone worth looking at.

He's still recovering from losing to Joni Ernst
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #37 on: November 23, 2014, 02:16:06 PM »

Bob Buckhorn is definitely someone worth looking at.

He's still recovering from losing to Joni Ernst
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #38 on: November 23, 2014, 07:27:12 PM »

Watch Hogan become the most popular governor in the country
A 70% approval rating didn't let Scott Brown get re-elected in MA.
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henster
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« Reply #39 on: November 23, 2014, 10:07:18 PM »

Watch Hogan become the most popular governor in the country
A 70% approval rating didn't let Scott Brown get re-elected in MA.

Elhirich was defeated despite having a decent approval rating I see Hogan having the same fate as him. Delaney was making noise earlier about running for Governor this year but ultimately didn't so I expect him to take a serious look at 2018.
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Vosem
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« Reply #40 on: November 23, 2014, 10:47:36 PM »

I think Ehrlich was more defeated by the 2006 wave itself than by the fact of Maryland being a Democratic state.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #41 on: November 24, 2014, 04:30:06 AM »

It'll help Democrats running for statewide office if Republicans are in the White House, so that's one key factor.

I wonder if the losses of Quinn and Corbett have convinced parties to support primary challenges against unpopular incumbents. Sandoval may have had the most impressive reelection, and he was first elected Governor defeating an unpopular incumbent from his own party.

If challengers lose close elections in Colorado, Florida or Ohio, they might have the name recognition to be top choices for gubernatorial candidates. This is obviously ridiculously tough to predict in advance of the Senate elections.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #42 on: November 24, 2014, 07:53:35 AM »

It's very possible that Michigan lays claim to having the hottest Governor in the country after the 2018 midterms:



If you think she hasn't been running for Governor for the past six years, you aren't paying attention.
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sg0508
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« Reply #43 on: November 24, 2014, 09:26:29 AM »

Maryland has a very strong Catholic vote (I believe) and thus, the gay marriage pass barely made it in '12.  That being said, the GOP's ceiling is one of the lowest in the country in MD.  The best they can do there is right around 52%, partially due to the African American vote, who will vote 90% Democratic no matter who the GOP nominee is. 

Ehrlich wasn't bad from what I understand, but his tough stance against gay marriage (and again, MD is very split on that issue) didn't help matters.  The '06 wave didn't help
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Person Man
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« Reply #44 on: November 24, 2014, 09:41:49 AM »

It's very possible that Michigan lays claim to having the hottest Governor in the country after the 2018 midterms:



If you think she hasn't been running for Governor for the past six years, you aren't paying attention.

It would be awesome to have our own Palin...as long as ours doesn't become a 6 year long joke.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #45 on: November 24, 2014, 10:40:41 AM »

It's very possible that Michigan lays claim to having the hottest Governor in the country after the 2018 midterms:



If you think she hasn't been running for Governor for the past six years, you aren't paying attention.

It would be awesome to have our own Palin...as long as ours doesn't become a 6 year long joke.

Yeah--Whitmer is a firebrand, but she's not stupid.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #46 on: November 24, 2014, 04:17:22 PM »

The problem with Murphy and Graham is I think Murphy's being recruited in a bigger sense to run against Rubio for Senate in 2016 while Graham national Dems need in that House seat too make sure it doesn't go anywhere. DWS is considered a Democratic hack and unfortunately wouldn't be able to get elected statewide in FL, Sink is a perennial loser, Crist is a perennial loser, and yeah. Maybe Castor could run for FL-Gov in 2018, but as it stands, the FL-GOP has a stronger standing bench.
^^
The only rising star the Democrats have is Pat Murphy, and I wouldn't waste him if I were you guys. He won't beat Rubio, but he could hold Bill Nelson's seat when he retires in 2018. Castor has no future outside of the House. Too bland and unknown.

Everybody hates DWS anyway.

Nelson's quitting in 2018? And you think a gay Democrat could win a statewide election in Florida?
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Flake
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« Reply #47 on: November 27, 2014, 04:39:15 AM »

The problem with Murphy and Graham is I think Murphy's being recruited in a bigger sense to run against Rubio for Senate in 2016 while Graham national Dems need in that House seat too make sure it doesn't go anywhere. DWS is considered a Democratic hack and unfortunately wouldn't be able to get elected statewide in FL, Sink is a perennial loser, Crist is a perennial loser, and yeah. Maybe Castor could run for FL-Gov in 2018, but as it stands, the FL-GOP has a stronger standing bench.
^^
The only rising star the Democrats have is Pat Murphy, and I wouldn't waste him if I were you guys. He won't beat Rubio, but he could hold Bill Nelson's seat when he retires in 2018. Castor has no future outside of the House. Too bland and unknown.

Everybody hates DWS anyway.

Nelson's quitting in 2018? And you think a gay Democrat could win a statewide election in Florida?

1. I personally think so
2. I didn't know Murphy was a homosex?
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #48 on: November 27, 2014, 05:59:42 PM »

The problem with Murphy and Graham is I think Murphy's being recruited in a bigger sense to run against Rubio for Senate in 2016 while Graham national Dems need in that House seat too make sure it doesn't go anywhere. DWS is considered a Democratic hack and unfortunately wouldn't be able to get elected statewide in FL, Sink is a perennial loser, Crist is a perennial loser, and yeah. Maybe Castor could run for FL-Gov in 2018, but as it stands, the FL-GOP has a stronger standing bench.
^^
The only rising star the Democrats have is Pat Murphy, and I wouldn't waste him if I were you guys. He won't beat Rubio, but he could hold Bill Nelson's seat when he retires in 2018. Castor has no future outside of the House. Too bland and unknown.

Everybody hates DWS anyway.

Nelson's quitting in 2018? And you think a gay Democrat could win a statewide election in Florida?

1. I personally think so
2. I didn't know Murphy was a homosex?
I'd be amazed if Nelson ran again. And no, Pat Murphy is not gay. Being a young Congressman who is not married does not make you gay. Being caught at a gay bar in Tampa (Aaron Schock) might warrant that, but not Murphy.
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Cape Verde
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« Reply #49 on: November 28, 2014, 08:07:39 AM »

1988 Senate Race
2000 Presidential Election
2004 Senate Race
2010 Gubernatorial Election
2014 Gubernatorial Election

Always, the Florida Democratic party fell short by less than 1.2%. 
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