Incumbents are hard to beat. I think open seat races are a great possibility.
I'll break down my (very early and in all likelihood super wrong) thoughts on the 2018 governors races as I see them now, from Totally Safe D to Totally Safe R:
HI - this is the only seat I can't see a Republican winning. Aiona blew two chances and Ige seems like a competent, run-of-the-mill Asian machine Dem.
CA - I wasn't impressed with Kashkari and I don't know who else CA GOP has that could be competitive here. They couldn't take an open seat in 2010 of all years, and DiFi (or maybe her replacement) will top the ticket. I foresee Newsom being the Dem nominee here, though the Cali Dem bench is pretty dang deep. Harris I think goes for Senate either in '16 or '18.
OR - I think Richardson got within striking distance of Kitzhaber because of the wife allegations. I don't know who the OR GOP runs here, and losing leg seats last night can't be encouraging to their prospects. Dems probably run some row officer like AG or whatever.
MN - I can't picture who the GOP has that can match up against Lori Swanson, especially with Dayton and Franken doing well this year. This will probably still be closer than it should be.
ME - No LePage and no Cutler (hopefully). This race could really go anywhere, of course, but I think the Maine Dems will try to rebuild their bench after last night's debacle. King being on the ballot (if he runs) probably doesn't hurt either. I could see Pingree or predecessor Tom Allen taking the dive here, or maybe Michaud wants a do-over. I figure he's done, though.
RI - I imagine Raimondo has a tougher time in the primary than the general.
CT - Without Malloy, this might actually be a tougher hold for CT Dems than otherwise. I could see some U.S. Rep jumping down here at the tail of their career.
MD - Hogan probably doesn't last more than one term, at least I'd be surprised if he did. MD Dems will want to lock in another gerrymander in 2020 and need him out of the way to avoid a veto. Sarbanes or Van Hollen would be US Reps who I doubt run, but maybe Delaney?
PA - This depends on how Wolf does. Phil thinks the Leg will torture him like in a Saw movie, but I think he'll do okay. Lots of small-ball stuff. DGA will want to keep him around for redistricting, this will be a marquee race. Meehan or Dent could run here, especially if they survive a hypothetical Clinton wave and show crossover support.
WI - I actually think this is a likelier get for D's than Michigan. I think the D's will be desperate to come back after 8 years of Walker/Kleefisch and make this their #1 pickup priority. Kleefisch, for a variety of reasons, I doubt inspires the same kind of excitement for Wisconsin's conservatives that Walker does.
CO - After 12 years of D control here, who knows. Hick got an open seat in 2010 and survived what was clearly an R backlash this year (it helps that he didn't run a single-issue sh*t campaign). R's have some good downballot options (AG, SOS, etc) who have statewide victory experience. Not sure who the D's have that's a credible statewide candidate. With CO likely gaining a CD after 2020, redistricting here could be huge.
MI - Having Stabenow on top of the ballot, if she runs again (I assume she does) has to help whoever the Dems recruit. Probably not Schauer again, though he did acquit himself admirably. I suspect Schuette is the GOP nominee. I imagine he starts as the favorite, though it'll be close. Closer than this year.
IL - This all depends on how Rauner interacts with the leg. IL has a history of electing GOP Governors and voters may see him as a good check on the D state leg, though he'll have to cut a pretty moderate profile. I imagine this state continues to be a mess either way.
MA - I think Baker has good odds here, for no reason other than this state has a history of electing and reelecting moderate R's. I do think Joe Kennedy III or Seth Moulton run statewide eventually, but that'd probably be for Markey's seat in 2020 or in 2022. Though with Warren atop the ballot, you never know who might try to create a coattail effect here.
OH - I doubt the D bench here will be recovered for quite a while. Maybe Tim Ryan runs, who knows. Kasich and co. did a number last night. Husted seems like a solid frontrunner, if kind of a scummy vote suppressor.
NM - I really have no clear who the bench for the D's here is, other than maybe Hector Balderas. Someone with more knowledge of this state could have input.
IA - I actually think the R bench here is very solid with Reynolds, Northey and others. I don't think either Tom Miller the AG or the other long-interred Treasurer run here, so I'm not sure who the D's put up. Vilsack, perhaps? If it's Braley, I'd probably have a stroke.
NV - This would have been further up the D end of the list had Sandoval and company not wiped out all of the D's rising stars. Miller would have been an early favorite here.
AZ - Assuming Ducey is a disaster, this might be competitive. Probably not, though. AZ is probably a few cycles away without presidential-level turnout. I'm more curious what happens to Flake this year though.
GA - Reed might be a viable statewide candidate, or a redux by Carter or Nunn statewide this year. Question is if GA is ready for a black Democrat as governor, even one who is fairly conservative. Kemp or Cagle could be top recruits, or maybe Tom Graves.
AR - Doubt the Arkansas Dems can recover this quickly. Hutchinson seems like a likely re-elect.
TN - Rumor is Corker wants this slot and Haslam would run for Senate instead. I can't think of any TN Dems who can compete with Corker at this level.
TX - Abbott is likely a shoo-in, even with a hypothetical Julian Castro candidacy.
SC, AL, ID, NE, KS, WY - These should (and likely will be) uncompetitive.
If I made any mistakes or made any poor conclusions, feel free to correct me/add your thoughts!
