Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky

[Joe Biden 2020]

It's not too early to start looking at the 2015 Gubernatorial Races in these three states.  Have any candidates announced, yet, or who do you expect to run and win in these races?

[KCDem]

Republicans win all races by double digits. Not much to discuss.

[IceSpear]

Republicans win all races by double digits. Not much to discuss.

lol, gotta love your morph.

But yeah, probably true. Dems might be able to keep Kentucky within single digits.

[KingSweden]

Republicans win all races by double digits. Not much to discuss.

lol, gotta love your morph.

But yeah, probably true. Dems might be able to keep Kentucky within single digits.

Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I think Conway wins next year. The Kentucky GOP primary looks like a clown car, especially if Bevin gets in the mix.

Mississippi is (obviously) Safe R and I think we lose Hood finally. Louisiana will probably be an easy Vitter win, but based on what I've read (and heard from Miles) he'd probably be an upgrade over Jindal.

[KCDem]

Republicans win all races by double digits. Not much to discuss.

lol, gotta love your morph.

But yeah, probably true. Dems might be able to keep Kentucky within single digits.

Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I think Conway wins next year. The Kentucky GOP primary looks like a clown car, especially if Bevin gets in the mix.

Mississippi is (obviously) Safe R and I think we lose Hood finally. Louisiana will probably be an easy Vitter win, but based on what I've read (and heard from Miles) he'd probably be an upgrade over Jindal.

Unless the Democrat is up by 10+ in the polls (and over 50%) in Southern races from now on, he or she will lose.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kentucky is a toss-up to start. PPP had a poll this past summer showing Conway leading 4 possible opponents by margins of at least 3 points.

Louisiana is Safe R unless Mitch Landrieu (D) runs.

Mississippi is Safe R no matter what.

[Lief 🗽]

KCDem is right. Looks like there's a big silent majority of angry old whites in Southern states these days that reflexively vote against every Democrat.

[morgieb]

Kentucky might be winnable as we held our own in their House and most statewide officers are still Democrats, but it will depend on nationalisation.

The other two are write-offs.

[LeBron]

I think there's actually a good chance at holding Kentucky for Democrats. The GOP primary will be incredibly bloody with Heiner spending millions to try and beat Comer. Cathy Bailey already said she's "95% sure" she's going to run as well, and Bevin just might to which would turn this into a "Who can be the bigger clown/more conservative?" primary. AFAIK, all of them support right-to-work, and polls have shown Conway up against all of them. It will take a lot of work and fundraising, but as long as Conway runs on Beshear and the state exchange, I can see him actually winning this.

For Louisiana, as Wulfric said, I think only if Mitch Landrieu runs can that seat be won. Otherwise, Vitter is the obvious frontrunner and LA has the runoff that would ensure his victory.

As for MS, as much as I would love to see Bryant unseated, it's out of reach. MS's strongest possible Dem, Jim Hood, already declined and Childers obviously won't run either. The most interesting thing out of that race will be a possible Tea Party primary to Phil Bryant, but Bryant's too powerful to be defeated in a primary or the general.

[Bacon King]

Kentucky is a toss-up to start. PPP had a poll this past summer showing Conway leading 4 possible opponents by margins of at least 3 points.

You know who else was leading PPP polls this past summer by margins of at least three points?

Michelle Nunn, Charlie Crist, Kay Hagan, Paul Davis, Greg Orman

RIP ever trusting polls

[7,052,770]

All incumbents (including Hood) reelected in Mississippi with little fanfare.

Democrats have a shot to take over the Mississippi House, but will probably fall short. Senate will stay pretty close to 32-20 R.

Probably a very boring election.

[KCDem]

All incumbents (including Hood) reelected in Mississippi with little fanfare.

Democrats have a shot to take over the Mississippi House, but will probably fall short. Senate will stay pretty close to 32-20 R.

Probably a very boring election.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Hood losing. Southern Democrats are being hunted down like rabid dogs. RIP Hood.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Kentucky is too un-Southern and too urban to be a write-off. If the Democrat hits hard on the "right-to-work" business, it helps.

[7,052,770]

All incumbents (including Hood) reelected in Mississippi with little fanfare.

Democrats have a shot to take over the Mississippi House, but will probably fall short. Senate will stay pretty close to 32-20 R.

Probably a very boring election.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Hood losing. Southern Democrats are being hunted down like rabid dogs. RIP Hood.

Hood's won 60-40 in Republican landslide years before ('07, '11). It's certainly not impossible or implausible that Republicans could finally take him out this year, but I wouldn't bet on it. They never can find a good or even reasonably decent candidate.

[KCDem]

All incumbents (including Hood) reelected in Mississippi with little fanfare.

Democrats have a shot to take over the Mississippi House, but will probably fall short. Senate will stay pretty close to 32-20 R.

Probably a very boring election.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Hood losing. Southern Democrats are being hunted down like rabid dogs. RIP Hood.

Hood's won 60-40 in Republican landslide years before ('07, '11). It's certainly not impossible or implausible that Republicans could finally take him out this year, but I wouldn't bet on it. They never can find a good or even reasonably decent candidate.

I wouldn't necessarily disagree if it weren't for the fact that Southern White Democrats are being rounded up and taken to the woodshed. Hood=Obama now.

[Maxwell]

2015 does not equal 2014. That being said, Democrats have an uphill battle in Louisiana and Kentucky. Jack Conway is not a good nominee, if they could get John Yarmuth to run he'd probably do better, but Conway is nevertheless at least even with whoever the Republicans put up, especially since their primary is looking to be a slog. Lousiana also could end up being a slog of a Republican on Republican battle, while Democrats could recruit Mitch Landrieu (who, if he runs, would be in a decent position).

In Mississippi, I'm gonna take a leap and say Attorney General Jim Hood may be in trouble, if Governor Phil Bryant (like many a Republican as of late) gets big coat-tails.