Democrats left in Romney States/Congressional Districts

[Talleyrand]

Senators

Jon Tester (MT)
Heidi Heitkamp (ND)
Claire McCaskill (MO)
Joe Donnelly (IN)
Joe Manchin (WV)
Mary Landrieu (LA)
Mark Begich (AK)
Kay Hagan (NC)
Mary Pryor (AR)
John Walsh (MT)
Tim Johnson (SD)
Jay Rockefeller (WV)

Congressmen

Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01)
Patrick Murphy (FL-18)
Collin Peterson (MN-7)
Gwen Graham (FL-02)
Brad Ashford (NE-02)
Ron Barber (AZ-02)
Mike McIntyre (NC-07)
Nick Rahall (WV-03)
Jim Matheson (UT-04)
John Barrow (GA-12)
Pete Gallego (TX-23)

Bold- Democratic Gain
Slashed- Republican Pickup
Italics- Undecided, Republican Pickups likely

So we've gone from 12 Democratic Senators and 9 Democratic Congressmen to what will very likely be 5 Democratic Senators (all elected in 2012) and 5 Democratic Congressmen in Romney Districts. Wow.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

What about Senate Republicans in Obama states? This is why Republicans have a majority currently, since we most of the red state Dems this year.

Cory Gardner (CO)
Marco Rubio (FL)
Kelly Ayotte (NH)
Chuck Grassley (IA)
Joni Ernst (IA)
Mark Kirk (IL)
Susan Collins (ME)
Dean Heller (NV)
Rob Portman (OH)
Pat Toomey (PA)
Ron Johnson (WI)

[Lief 🗽]

God damn. What a nightmare. Not a single red state senator in class 2 or 3. We're increasingly becoming a regional party.

[Nichlemn]

Not only that, a bunch of those Democrats won in close races and/or had their opponent implode. (All the 2012-elected Senators except Manchin were considered underdogs earlier in the year).

Susan Collins and Manchin are probably the only Senators left who are safe in states that favour the opposite party by more than a couple of points.

[KCDem]

Not only that, a bunch of those Democrats won in close races and/or had their opponent implode. (All the 2012-elected Senators except Manchin were considered underdogs earlier in the year).

Susan Collins and Manchin are probably the only Senators left who are safe in states that favour the opposite party by more than a couple of points.

Even Manchin isn't safe and he's likely going to run for governor in 2016.

[Vosem]

What about Senate Republicans in Obama states? This is why Republicans have a majority currently, since we most of the red state Dems this year.

Cory Gardner (CO)
Marco Rubio (FL)
Kelly Ayotte (NH)
Chuck Grassley (IA)
Joni Ernst (IA)
Mark Kirk (IL)
Susan Collins (ME)
Dean Heller (NV)
Rob Portman (OH)
Pat Toomey (PA)
Ron Johnson (WI)

What about House Republicans in Obama districts?

[Lief 🗽]

Interesting that the Republican senate majority is more or less just the Republican/Obama seats minus the Democrat/Romney seats. The good news there is that Democrats don't necessarily need to win any Romney seats to regain the majority, just to consolidate the Obama seats which should be a lot easier.

[Mehmentum]

Between 2006 and 2014, the net Senate seat change is D+1.

The only difference is that where these seats are has become much more polarized.

[Maxwell]

Of the Dems in Romney states, I think only Manchin will be in a good position once his election comes around. Tester possibly but doubtful.

[Talleyrand]

Of the Dems in Romney states, I think only Manchin will be in a good position once his election comes around. Tester possibly but doubtful.

Considering his approval numbers are basically even and how horrible WV is going for the Democrats, he'll probably pull a Rockefeller on us.

[Panda Express]

The Dems can win in red states.... but only in presidential years.

Last year, we won in IN, ND, MT and WV and nearly won AZ.

Of course, since we suck in midterms, those seats are probably gone in 2018

[IceSpear]

Interesting that the Republican senate majority is more or less just the Republican/Obama seats minus the Democrat/Romney seats. The good news there is that Democrats don't necessarily need to win any Romney seats to regain the majority, just to consolidate the Obama seats which should be a lot easier.

Unfortunately not, since Democrats are a lot more open minded and prone to ticket splitting than Republicans are.

See: MD-Gov and KS-Gov

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The irony is that all 5 of those Democratic Senators in Romney states won at the same time that Romney won the state.

[Person Man]

God damn. What a nightmare. Not a single red state senator in class 2 or 3. We're increasingly becoming a regional party.

It makes things easier to defend, but we need to do something to start picking them off. I think Tester and Donnely'll be OK and maybe even Mc Caskell. Even Heitkamp will be probably be ok barring an R wave. Manchin, though...right?

[Maxwell]

God damn. What a nightmare. Not a single red state senator in class 2 or 3. We're increasingly becoming a regional party.

It makes things easier to defend, but we need to do something to start picking them off. I think Tester and Donnely'll be OK and maybe even Mc Caskell. Even Heitkamp will be probably be ok barring an R wave. Manchin, though...right?

Really? I think Donnelly is dead in the water, especially if a Democrat is President in 2018. Heitkamp is probably better off than he is - she beat a real opponent, but she's still in trouble. Tester and Manchin are probably okay though.

[Rockefeller GOP]

IMO, Manchin is near-Collins status.  He's a moderate member of a party who's no longer popular nationally in the state, but locals still largely identify with the party and have an affection for retaining moderate members of it - when he retires, the GOP will go all in on it (just as Dems will try for Maine), but until then, they'll happily send him back.

[SWE]

What about Senate Republicans in Obama states? This is why Republicans have a majority currently, since we most of the red state Dems this year.

Cory Gardner (CO)
Marco Rubio (FL)
Kelly Ayotte (NH)
Chuck Grassley (IA)
Joni Ernst (IA)
Mark Kirk (IL)
Susan Collins (ME)
Dean Heller (NV)
Rob Portman (OH)
Pat Toomey (PA)
Ron Johnson (WI)

What about House Republicans in Obama districts?

Jeff Denham (CA-10)
David Valdao (CA-21)
Mike Coffman (CO-06)
David Jolly (FL-13)
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27)
Bob Dold (IL-10)
Mike Bost (IL-12)
Rodney Davis (IL-13)
Rod Blum (IA-01)
David Young (IA-03)
John Kline (MN-02)
Erik Paulsen (MN-03)
Joe Heck (NV-03)
Cresent Hardy (NV-04)
Frank Guinta (NH-01)
Frank LoBiondo (NJ-02)
Lee Zeldin (NY-01)
Peter King (NY-02)
Michael Grimm (NY-11)
Chris Gibson (NY-19)
Elise Stefanik (NY-21)
John Katko (NY-24)
Bruce Poliquin (ME-02)
Scott Rigell (VA-10)
Dave Reichert (WA-04)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Heitkamp may start out with the advantage, but there are a dozen Republicans who are itching to move up and over half a dozen are better candidates than Rick Berg was. She will never be safe like Dorgan and Conrad were.

The same goes for Donnelly. The only thing that makes me think that Tester is somewhat better of, is the lack of legitimate candidates to go after him. The nature of Missouri will ensure that McCaskil is stiffly challenged. As for Manchin, I think he is better off then the other four, but keep in mind the WV GOP is on the ascent and we have seen rather popular incumbents lose in hostile states before.

[SPC]

Heitkamp may start out with the advantage, but there are a dozen Republicans who are itching to move up and over half a dozen are better candidates than Rick Berg was. She will never be safe like Dorgan and Conrad were.

The same goes for Donnelly. The only thing that makes me think that Tester is somewhat better of, is the lack of legitimate candidates to go after him. The nature of Missouri will ensure that McCaskil is stiffly challenged. As for Manchin, I think he is better off then the other four, but keep in mind the WV GOP is on the ascent and we have seen rather popular incumbents lose in hostile states before.

Can Zinke be a viable candidate by 2018, or is he too right-wing?

[Maxwell]

I'm of the belief that Donnelly is going to get Blanched no matter what kind of year it is.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Interesting that the Republican senate majority is more or less just the Republican/Obama seats minus the Democrat/Romney seats. The good news there is that Democrats don't necessarily need to win any Romney seats to regain the majority, just to consolidate the Obama seats which should be a lot easier.

Unfortunately not, since Democrats are a lot more open minded and prone to ticket splitting than Republicans are.

See: MD-Gov and KS-Gov

This. Democrats and liberals seem to care about other things too than just the letter next to the name of a candidate. 

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Interesting that the Republican senate majority is more or less just the Republican/Obama seats minus the Democrat/Romney seats. The good news there is that Democrats don't necessarily need to win any Romney seats to regain the majority, just to consolidate the Obama seats which should be a lot easier.

Unfortunately not, since Democrats are a lot more open minded and prone to ticket splitting than Republicans are.

See: MD-Gov and KS-Gov

This. Democrats and liberals seem to care about other things too than just the letter next to the name of a candidate. 

I think it has more to do with which party is in the White House. A number of longtime moderate Republicans lost in 2006 and 2008 (ex. Jim Leach, Chris Shays).

[Nichlemn]

Interesting that the Republican senate majority is more or less just the Republican/Obama seats minus the Democrat/Romney seats. The good news there is that Democrats don't necessarily need to win any Romney seats to regain the majority, just to consolidate the Obama seats which should be a lot easier.

Unfortunately not, since Democrats are a lot more open minded and prone to ticket splitting than Republicans are.

See: MD-Gov and KS-Gov

No way. Like, maybe this year it appears to be the case, but that's partially a result of just being such a bad Democratic year. In pretty much every other election cycle for decades, Democrats have done better at winning R-Presidential places than Republicans have done well at winning D-Presidential places. Even in 2010, Republicans won almost zero races at any level above D+5, while a decent number of Blue Dogs still survived in tougher terrain.

[Nichlemn]

What about Senate Republicans in Obama states? This is why Republicans have a majority currently, since we most of the red state Dems this year.

Cory Gardner (CO)
Marco Rubio (FL)
Kelly Ayotte (NH)
Chuck Grassley (IA)
Joni Ernst (IA)
Mark Kirk (IL)
Susan Collins (ME)
Dean Heller (NV)
Rob Portman (OH)
Pat Toomey (PA)
Ron Johnson (WI)

Kerry states are probably a better analogue, as Kerry lost by a similar margin to Romney, so it's about equivalent so far as PVI goes.

That takes us to:

Kelly Ayotte (NH)
Mark Kirk (IL)
Susan Collins (ME)
Pat Toomey (PA)
Ron Johnson (WI)

Only ME and IL are more than a couple of points Democratic-leaning.

[KCDem]

Glorious news! Blue-district Republicans are on the run across the country!