Are you surprised that CO-SEN ended up way closer than IA-SEN?

[Eraserhead]

In other news, NY may have the most swing voters of all (particularly upstate). It just isn't that ideological a state. It is just all masked by its overall heavy Dem leaning. The Dems were just trashed in upstate NY, losing everything that was not totally nailed down, up and down the ballot, and almost losing NY-25, which was supposed to be nailed down tight. Big swings on Long Island as well.

Huh? Dems only lost two seats in upstate NY, one of which was practically handed to the GOP (NY-21). The other one was Maffei, who is a horrendous candidate and has been since 2006. Maloney who you were insisting would lose also won.

Mahoney's win was very impressive (I suspect he is a very talented politician), and the GOP swing was more muted in the northern NYC burbs. I think the Dems lost 5 state senate seats upstate, and nearly lost my local assembly district, which is quite heavily Dem in a Dem gerrymander. The only upstate Congress Dems left are the Buffalo and Albany seats, and, barely, the Rochester seat.

Hope those new Republicans don't get too comfortable in those seats. It's going to be very ugly for them in 2016 with Hillary on top of the ticket.

[Skill and Chance]

I'd honestly be a bit nervous about what's been going down in WV paying a visit to Iowa over the next several cycles.  Not sold on it, but a bit nervous...

[Gass3268]

I'd honestly be a bit nervous about what's been going down in WV paying a visit to Iowa over the next several cycles.  Not sold on it, but a bit nervous...

It's possible, the return back to normal after the 80's farming crisis, but in reality Iowa is more like Minnesota or Wisconsin. Also there is no coal industry, so no war on coal, and having the first caucus every 4 years will mean that both parties will always have a big infrastructure there.

[rbt48]

Had Harkin run for reelection, he would have outperformed Udall.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It is an apples to oranges comparison because one was open and the other was not. Also, it was not picked up on just how Republican Indies were going to vote and knowing that result would have made IA more likely but IA indies are more elastic I suspect then Colorado's where more of them are "too leftwing for the Democrats" Indies in Boulder.

CO and IA used to always vote together. 32 (FDR), 36 (FDR) 40 (Wilkie) 44 (Dewey) 48 (Truman), 52 (Ike) 56 (Ike) 60 (Nixon), 64 (LBJ) 68 (Nixon) 72 (Nixon), 76 (Ford), 80 (Reagan) 84 (Reagan). Only 1988 does IA diverge and start vote for Dukakis because of the previously mentioned farming crisis.

It is always one of the most undiverse states in the union, whereas CO has a strong minority voting bloc. The Republicans therefore between the more friendly indies and fewer minorities have a higher ceiling then Republicans in Colorado.

[Skill and Chance]

I'd honestly be a bit nervous about what's been going down in WV paying a visit to Iowa over the next several cycles.  Not sold on it, but a bit nervous...

It's possible, the return back to normal after the 80's farming crisis, but in reality Iowa is more like Minnesota or Wisconsin. Also there is no coal industry, so no war on coal, and having the first caucus every 4 years will mean that both parties will always have a big infrastructure there.

But it does stick out like a sore thumb with way too much rural D support and few logical reasons for it.  Also, there is something of a new farming crisis developing, which also fits with unusually weak R support in their solid Plains states (Ashford, Heitkamp, KS being close).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

All three of those are the result of Republicans running crappy candidates and/or taking it for granted.

Also whilst rural in comparison to NY, NE-02 is dominated by Douglas county and Omaha.

Also must be noted that Rounds did overperform the polls, Sasse didn't have any problems (won NE-02 by 20% or close to it) and of course Ernst. Fischer did well despite not being a solid choice campaign wise and so forth. You can select a few races to prove a point, but weakness on the part of three candidates does not compare to the generalized weakness that the Republicans experienced from 1986 to 1996 (lost ND Class III, SD Class II and III, NE class I, and various house seats over that period and didn't start to regain most of it until almost two decades later (with the exeption of SD-AL in 1996 and SD class III in 2004 both because of Thune I would point out). 

[Sbane]

It is an apples to oranges comparison because one was open and the other was not. Also, it was not picked up on just how Republican Indies were going to vote and knowing that result would have made IA more likely but IA indies are more elastic I suspect then Colorado's where more of them are "too leftwing for the Democrats" Indies in Boulder.

CO and IA used to always vote together. 32 (FDR), 36 (FDR) 40 (Wilkie) 44 (Dewey) 48 (Truman), 52 (Ike) 56 (Ike) 60 (Nixon), 64 (LBJ) 68 (Nixon) 72 (Nixon), 76 (Ford), 80 (Reagan) 84 (Reagan). Only 1988 does IA diverge and start vote for Dukakis because of the previously mentioned farming crisis.

It is always one of the most undiverse states in the union, whereas CO has a strong minority voting bloc. The Republicans therefore between the more friendly indies and fewer minorities have a higher ceiling then Republicans in Colorado.

Having more minorities, especially Hispanics and Asians, in a midterm election is not advantageous for the Democrats. Look at the results from Adams, Pueblo and even Arapahoe to an extent. The Democrats didn't have that much trouble from the suburban white independent vote in Colorado, it was the Hispanics and rural/exurban independents who swung it for Gardner. Looking at the results from Broomfield and Jefferson, one would think there was a recount going on right now in Colorado.

[Senator Cris]

No. Colorado is a blue state. Iowa is a purple state.

Colorado is a blue state hahahahaha

Senate: 1 D 1 R
US House: 4 R 3 D
Governor: D
State Senate: R (18 R 16 D 1 Undecided)
State House: D (33 D 32 R)
SoS: R
AG: R

Not exactly a blue state...

the laughter indicated i didn't think that colorado is a blue state.

Yes, I know.

[dmmidmi]

If you had told me a year ago that Braley would lose by eight, and Udall would lose by four, I would've called you nuts.

Given that Braley made every effort to piss away his chances of winning the Iowa Senate seat, I'm not too surprised.

[Stranger in a strange land]

No, not really, simply because Iowa has more persuadable voters.