Predict the Final Number of Republican Seats In the House
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  Predict the Final Number of Republican Seats In the House
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Poll
Question: How many seats will the Republicans end up with in the new Congress?
#1
246
 
#2
247
 
#3
248
 
#4
249
 
#5
250
 
#6
251
 
#7
252
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 38

Author Topic: Predict the Final Number of Republican Seats In the House  (Read 1638 times)
Recalcuate
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« on: November 06, 2014, 12:57:46 AM »

With 14 seats outstanding, the Republicans have 243 seats in the House.

Three other seats are practical Republican locks. (LA-5 and LA-6 in runoff and R vs. R in WA-4). Predict the number of total seats that the Republicans will end up with in the new Congress.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2014, 02:42:03 AM »

Looks like 250 to me, with the 2 LA seats going GOP as well.
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Ljube
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2014, 02:45:39 AM »

250 is such a beautiful, round number. Smiley
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jfern
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2014, 05:07:55 AM »

I think the Democrats win most of the uncalled races that have a D and an R. 247 or 248.

Of course people are free to think Costa is toast just like they did in 2010.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2014, 10:30:07 AM »

I think the Democrats win most of the uncalled races that have a D and an R. 247 or 248.

Of course people are free to think Costa is toast just like they did in 2010.

Is California like NY where they wait and then count the absentees/early vote?
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2014, 11:07:18 AM »

Looking carefully at what is out there, the two most likely choices are 248 or 249.

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jaichind
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2014, 11:15:42 AM »

Looks like 250 to me, with the 2 LA seats going GOP as well.

My thoughts exactly.  250 is a safe guess since it just assumes the candidate in the lead will eventually win.
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Torie
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2014, 12:03:17 PM »

247 or 248. CA-07 is lean Pub, CA-52 lean Dem, CA-16 and NY-25 likely Dem, and AZ-02 looks like a tossup to me at this point. But I will guess 248.
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2014, 12:04:10 PM »

I think the Democrats win most of the uncalled races that have a D and an R. 247 or 248.

Of course people are free to think Costa is toast just like they did in 2010.

Is California like NY where they wait and then count the absentees/early vote?

Yes, except a much higher percentage of the total ballots are counted late in CA than in NY.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2014, 06:48:11 PM »

250. Right now they have 243. They'll win...

LA-5
LA-6
WA-4

^Obviously, and probably...

AZ-2
CA-7
CA-16 (still in shock on this one)
CA-52
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2014, 07:06:50 PM »

250. Right now they have 243. They'll win...

LA-5
LA-6
WA-4

^Obviously, and probably...

AZ-2
CA-7
CA-16 (still in shock on this one)
CA-52

They probably won't get CA-16 or CA-52 since late ballots skew Dem. They might be able to hang on in CA-7 despite this though.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2014, 01:14:41 AM »
« Edited: November 08, 2014, 02:56:11 PM by Recalcuate »

Down to seven races undecided. It's 244-184 at this point.

The remaining races

Arizona 2 - Martha McSally (R) leads Ron Barber (D) by 509 votes, 105,687 to 105,178. Barber is the incumbent in this southeastern Arizona district, which includes part of Tucson. Pima County has approximately 18,171 possible ballots yet to count, while Cochise County has 1,161 provisional ballots. Pima trends Democrat while Cochise trends Republican.

California 7 - Doug Ose (R) leads incumbent Ami Berra (D) by 1.7% or roughly 2,200 votes. There are about 70,000 mail ballots yet to be processed as well as unknown number of provisional ballots. California's seventh Congressional District encompasses Elk Grove, Folsom, and Rancho Cordova in eastern Sacramento County.

California 16 - Johnny Tacherra (R) is up by roughly a point over incumbent Jim Costa (D) or 741 votes. There were 22,000 ballots left to be counted in Fresno County 4,000 in the district and 1,500 in Merced as of Friday in this Central Valley district.

California 26 - Incumbent Julia Brownley (D) leads challenger Jeff Gorell (R) by roughly a point. Gorell will have to make up roughly a 1,000 vote margin. About 38,000 mail ballots and 9,500 provisional ballots remain to be counted. The breakdown is as follows: 33,000 mail ballots and 9,500 provisionals from Ventura and 5,000 mail ballots from Los Angeles.

Louisiana 5 - Monroe mayor Jamie Mayo (D) faces Ralph Abraham (R) in the Dec. 6 runoff. Abraham, a doctor, defeated "Duck Dynasty" cousin Zach Dasher by one-percent for the second runoff spot. This northeast and central Louisiana district has a Cook PVI of R+14 and is expected to remain in Republican control.

Louisiana 6 - Garret Graves (R) faces off against former Louisiana Governor Edwin Edwards (D) in a Dec. 6 runoff in this southeast and central Louisiana district, which includes Baton Rouge. Edwards, 87, surprisingly emerged at the top of the 12-candidate field despite serving a 10-year prison sentence on federal racketeering charges. Graves is expected to cruise to easy victory in this R+19 district.

New York 25 - Long-term incumbent Louise Slaughter (D) holds a 651 vote margin over challenger Mark Assini (R) in this Rochester-area district. Approximately 2,100 absentee ballots were counted on Wednesday. Another 1,200-1,300 ballots remain outstanding as well as an unknown number of affidavit ballots.

Republican seat No. 250 is gone. Incumbent Scott Peters (D) cruised to a 51-49 victory over Carl DeMaio (R) in California 52. DeMaio lead on Election Day, but fell behind as the absentee ballots were counted.
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J. J.
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« Reply #12 on: November 09, 2014, 02:14:57 AM »

247-248.

The 2 LA seats and at least one of CA-7, CA-16, or AZ-2.  If I had to pick a number 247. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2014, 08:33:38 AM »

GOP has 244 now.  NY-25 has been called for Dem so there are only 6 seats left.  LA-5 and LA-6 will go to GOP so that is 246.  AZ-2 the current count is GOP 108,230 Dem 108,051.  CA-7 the current count is  GOP 76,133 Dem 75,603.  CA-16 the current count is GOP 42,199 Dem 41,458.  CA-26 the current count is Dem 68,903 GOP 67,873.

It seems to me that CA-26 is gone. Out of AZ-2 CA-7 and CA-16, most likely GOP will end up with 2 out of the three for 248.
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