Don't look now but the oil market is collapsing

[Nhoj]

So Scotland cle.arly made the right choice. Wonder what percentage "No" would get today

Yes is currently polling better than it did before the referendum.

[Flake]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Yelnoc]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I wouldn't celebrate too much, these low prices are causing a crimp in supply, which will shoot gas prices way up in the near future. USA Today outlines the problem.

In the meantime, falling oil prices are testing Iran's support for Syria, creating fear in Algeria of civil unrest, causing hardship for Venezuela.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Well it happened. I just topped off my tank at $1.96/gallon.

[King]

It fell below $50/gal briefly today.

[The Free North]

Still no bottom in Oil yet


Whoever had puts on USO back in July is a very happy person right now

[King]

48.23. Great stuff. I'd say the conservative estimate for the bottom is now $35, could be as low as $20.

Wall Street continuing to prove it's full of HP, however, as DJIA continues to spiral down with this news.

[Simfan34]

I had a semi-serious conversation with a few friends who work for investment banks saying that if oil were to go below $30 the US would take to funding Shia rebels in Saudi Arabia to get them to stop pumping so much. Silly, but they show no signs of blinking even now.

[Simfan34]

I had a semi-serious conversation with a few friends who work for investment banks saying that if oil were to go below $30 the US would take to funding Shia rebels in Saudi Arabia to get them to stop pumping so much. Silly, but they show no signs of blinking even now.

Well, nearly a year on, and it looks like we're headed towards exactly that. So...

[DINGO Joe]

Question, will this further hurt the coal industry?

Probably. Hopefully it will mean that gas will overtake coal in electricity generation sometime before 2035 (!!!) which is far too long.

I've often wondered whether it is feasible to simply export all our coal to China. I'd doubt it.

 

Our peak year of coal exports to China was 2012 when we sent 3 mil tons of thermal coal (for electric generation) and 7 mil tons of met coal (for steel making).  For a frame of reference the US produced a little over 1 billion tons that year (with over 900 million tons of that thermal coal) and China consumed over 4 Billion tons.  Since that point in time our exports to China have dwindled to almost nothing, we literally export more coal to Croatia now than to China.

Coal export data from EIA

I point this out for two reasons.  First, because I always do, and secondly, noted village idiot Donald Trump has be going around saying similar stupid things about coal.

Really, the advantage China provided for US coal exporters was that they absorbed so much coal (thermal and met) that they kept global prices high enough that higher cost producers (US) could get a price high enough to grow exports in many places other than China.  Now that China no longer absorbs so much coal prices have dropped to the point that Us producers are losing export market share everywhere, not just to China.  Exports have already fallen by a third and will ultimately go back to 2006 levels (before the China frenzy got rolling).  Numerous US producers also took on tons of debt in 2010-11 trying to expand met coal production to meet Chinese demand.  They did this at the top of the market and now they're all bankrupt or waiting for bankruptcy.

As for US domestic electric generation, coal and gas have been pretty much near parity since April, thanks to big US NG production creating low (and now ultra-low) prices.  Ultimately, the prices will go back up to something a little more sustainable and coal will edge ahead for a little while.  Probably around 2020 NG will take the lead for good.