Don't look now but the oil market is collapsing

[Simfan34]

Question, will this further hurt the coal industry?

Probably. Hopefully it will mean that gas will overtake coal in electricity generation sometime before 2035 (!!!) which is far too long.

I've often wondered whether it is feasible to simply export all our coal to China. I'd doubt it.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

So is the ND energy boom basically SOL then? Northern Alberta in Canada will be hit hard by these boom and bust cycles as well.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Could the US be bluffing its shale oil reserves?

Iran and Russia are flooding the market too in order to increase revenues... But if prices collapse and shale production really begins to fall off, it could be a sign that wells already drilled are decaying in production at faster than expected rates... So that the cost of keeping production up necessitates ever larger shares going to drilling new wells... So that a low oil price halts drilling as cost prohibitive while returns from existing wells falls faster than our reserve forecast algorithms would allow.

If that were true, itd be bad news for the US because it would screw our oil geopolitics... But it sounds very conspiracy-ee

[King]

Question, will this further hurt the coal industry?

Probably. Hopefully it will mean that gas will overtake coal in electricity generation sometime before 2035 (!!!) which is far too long.

I've often wondered whether it is feasible to simply export all our coal to China. I'd doubt it.

Coal should be left in the ground. We may need it one day, we may not (likely not), but I sure don't want China burning it. Especially when the profit margins on it are so low to sell it to them.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I've read that OPEC lowering oil prices has nothing to do with staying competitive -- it's just Saudi Arabia trying to drive US shale oil companies out of business. It's basically dumping.

In a vacuum, yes, but it's a desperation play by the Saudis. US shale has the upper hand. They're panicked about North America's energy outlook.

Isn't shale only profitable around $65 a barrel, though? If they pump enough to get it below that we'd be the ones in trouble, no?

Oil extraction is a business where start-up costs are a large part of the costs.  Lower prices may well see a decline in drilling, but existing wells are likely to continue to be pumped even if the spot price of crude went below $42/bbl.

[AggregateDemand]

If that were true, itd be bad news for the US because it would screw our oil geopolitics... But it sounds very conspiracy-ee

We've got 2 trillion barrels of kerogen reserves. We will never run out of outlandish geopolitical energy trumps.

[dead0man]

The peak oil chicken littles continue to look silly.

Do you think the supply of oil is infinite?

no

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Of course not, it's just that the doom predicted by the peak oil fan boys is and always has been, completely made up in their head.  Even in a worst case scenario, it would just hurt.  Maybe even hurt a lot, but civilization isn't going to shut down.  Other technologies/sources of energy will fill the gap.  There won't be millions starving to death in the streets and world war for the last oil well.  We (the first world) wouldn't even get close to as bad as Venezuela is today.

[King]

[The Free North]

If Brent drops another few points Russia, Iran, and Venezeula are going to be in a lot of hurt economically.


This is not getting the attention it deserves but we are witnessing a once in a generation shift in geopolitics as the power of OPEC wains in the light of new energy coming from the US and Canada. Of course the collapse in WTI will help consumers but at this point its hurting the autocrats more than anyone else.

Not sure where we find the bottom in oil but unless something changes $100/barrel is long gone.

[King]

Someone please post the "IT'S HAPPENING" gif

Jumped the gun bumping this thread. The more symbolic 5.00 just happened.



And in the time it took me to upload this screen shot, it fell -5.10.

Happy Thanksgiving!

[The Free North]

Perhaps more representative of whats actually going on than just 1 number

[Linus Van Pelt]

Someone please post the "IT'S HAPPENING" gif

Jumped the gun bumping this thread. The more symbolic 5.00 just happened.



And in the time it took me to upload this screen shot, it fell -5.10.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Oh no King is turning into the J.J. of oil prices

[Tender Branson]

Good news for filling up my car the next days, bad news for Putin and his oil-Russia.

I like.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Thanks Obama!

[Yelnoc]

If Brent drops another few points Russia, Iran, and Venezeula are going to be in a lot of hurt economically.


This is not getting the attention it deserves but we are witnessing a once in a generation shift in geopolitics as the power of OPEC wains in the light of new energy coming from the US and Canada. Of course the collapse in WTI will help consumers but at this point its hurting the autocrats more than anyone else.

Not sure where we find the bottom in oil but unless something changes $100/barrel is long gone.

I thought low oil prices hurt US production a lot more than Gulf production, as the new extraction methods prevalent in the US (e.g. fracking) are more expensive to maintain than the traditional infrastructure that Iraq, for instance, uses.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

If Brent drops another few points Russia, Iran, and Venezeula are going to be in a lot of hurt economically.


This is not getting the attention it deserves but we are witnessing a once in a generation shift in geopolitics as the power of OPEC wains in the light of new energy coming from the US and Canada. Of course the collapse in WTI will help consumers but at this point its hurting the autocrats more than anyone else.

Not sure where we find the bottom in oil but unless something changes $100/barrel is long gone.

I thought low oil prices hurt US production a lot more than Gulf production, as the new extraction methods prevalent in the US (e.g. fracking) are more expensive to maintain than the traditional infrastructure that Iraq, for instance, uses.

This is why the Saudis are fine with letting the price drop. They want to stifle North American development so they can regain the advantage when the price inevitably rises once again.

[Adam Griffin]

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[memphis]

Oh goody, the 2014 version of JJ's Gold thread has arrived.

[King]

Oh goody, the 2014 version of JJ's Gold thread has arrived.

Today was a huge price drop, equivalent to if the Dow dropped 1000 points. I won't update it further unless a monumental drop happens like this again.

That being said, JJ's fascination with gold was incomprehensible. Energy prices matter.

[Cory]

Loving this. North American energy independence will be the biggest geo-political boon to America since the fall of the Soviet Union.

I can't wait.

[memphis]

Loving this. North American energy independence will be the biggest geo-political boon to America since the fall of the Soviet Union.

I can't wait.

Not on the soccer mom's watch.
http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2014/11/03/nissan-honda-chrysler-report-us-sales-increases

[Mehmentum]

Excellent news!  Not only will we pay less for gas, but we're also sticking it to Russia!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Loving this. North American energy independence will be the biggest geo-political boon to America since the fall of the Soviet Union.

I can't wait.

Excellent news!  Not only will we pay less for gas, but we're also sticking it to Russia!

I'll believe it when I see a screen fade to a smoky red with the epilogue to Nicholas and Alexandra playing in the background.

[King]

Loving this. North American energy independence will be the biggest geo-political boon to America since the fall of the Soviet Union.

I can't wait.

Not on the soccer mom's watch.
http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2014/11/03/nissan-honda-chrysler-report-us-sales-increases

In another Thanks Obama™ moment, the fuel efficiency standards roadmap he fought for as part of the auto bailouts ease this. The 2015 Ford F-150 gets 22 MPG. The 2005 got 16 MPG. It gets better each and every year with goal of 30+ MPG.  The technology being embraced by the industry is actually ahead of the regulations in some cases.

Murricans won't be able to guzzle the gas this time around.

[Adam Griffin]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/11/28/stocks-friday/19608677/

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LOL