Could NY-Gov have been competitive if the GOP spent money on it?

[tpfkaw]

Cuomo ended up winning by a much narrower than expected margin of 54-41, at the same time as Republicans did very well in the congressional races and took back the State Senate.  Since all the polls and conventional wisdom said that Cuomo was going to win in a huge landslide with a margin of nearly 2-1, Rob Astorino's campaign had pretty much zero resources, while Chris Christie announced that the RGA wouldn't spend anything on the race and refused to campaign with Astorino.

If Astorino's campaign, the RGA, and/or a Republican super-pac had been able to spend $10mil or so on an actual campaign with well-produced TV ads in heavy rotation and a ground game, and had pulled off one of those classic NY dirty tricks by financing a "Progressive Party" line for Zephyr Teachout, would Astorino have had a decent shot? I'm leaning towards yes.

[Maxwell]

Chris Gibson could've won, but otherwise Cuomo was still going to win.

[King]

A better candidate than Astorino probably. He seemed like another cartoonish NY Eyetalian Conservative. That's not a winner.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Why would they spend money to defeat their own governor?

[free my dawg]

Why would they spend money to defeat their own governor?

[Vega]

Why would they spend money to defeat their own governor?

[Maxwell]

Why would they spend money to defeat their own governor?

Probably why Gibson didn't run in the first place.

[morgieb]

Why would they spend money to defeat their own governor?

[IceSpear]

Why would they spend money to defeat their own governor?

[jaichind]

With a better candidate, maybe, but that candidate doesn't exist in New York right now.

Astorino and Hawkins did as well as they did because people who dislike Cuomo were more enthusiastic about voting against him than anyone was about voting for him. A more visible campaign probably would have brought more low-information Democrats to the polls, and almost all of them would vote for Cuomo.

My thoughts exactly.  In fact the main GOP goal was to win the NY State Senate which a higher Dem turnout would destroy any chance of that, especially in places outside of NYC.  So the GOP knowing that they could not win anyway, decided to keep it a low profile and ergo a low turnout election where their NY State Senate candidates could sneak through and capture some Dem seats.  It worked.

[Mister Mets]

It would have cost a lot of money, and it wouldn't be enough to swing an election Cuomo won by more than 14 points.

Astorino was also not the ideal opponent. To compete in such a large and liberal state, Republicans need someone whose background is significant enough to get the attention of the voters.

[KCDem]

Why would they spend money to defeat their own governor?

[jaichind]

http://nypost.com/2014/11/10/cuomo-had-a-secret-re-election-pact-with-republicans/

"The state’s most powerful Republican secretly worked for months to help Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo win re-election — in exchange for Cuomo’s promise not to aid Senate Democrats in their Long Island races, a top New York GOP leader has charged."

- Not sure about this one.  I think Cuomo not helping Dems in the NY State Senate race was more about getting back at de Blasio than a deal with the GOP to win.  For one thing he did not need the GOP support to win.  And if he did then he got a bad deal since Astorinio actually over-performed expectations. 




"But Lawler noted that ironically, Skelos would likely become leader of the new Republican-led Senate because Astorino’s presence at the top of the ticket helped three upstate GOP challengers defeat Democratic incumbents." 

- Which is what I contended.  That from the GOP point of view Astorino's campaign was mission accomplished.   

[Lief 🗽]

What has De Blasio done to Cuomo that he would want to get back at him for? They've been very close.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Possibly, but it's important to remember that dollars don't vote; people do.  When you consider the fact that a large number of Republicans supported Cuomo, and that voters didn't seem phased by his recent scandal, then I doubt it would have made much difference.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why would they spend money to defeat their own governor?