IL 2016: Kirk is in

[IceSpear]

Tons of House Dems were pro-life/anti-gay marriage. They got Blanched anyway. These districts only care if you're associated the black guy's party these days. Nothing else matters.

[Vega]

Kirk's going to get Blanched.

This, likely.

[King]

Gay marriage and pro choice aren't actual legislative issues. They're wedges used to win elections.

I'm talking actual bipartisanship. Real bills. Pat Toomney is more moderate in practice than Kirk.

[Nichlemn]

I doubt Kirk gets Blanched (except maybe against Madigan in a pro-D year). Illinois seems to be getting close to 55-45 now, so if Kirk just performs as Generic R he probably loses by about that. If he manages to overperform, as I suspect he will, it's probably a fairly close loss or a win. There isn't any "karma" in the electoral universe. Susan Collins might be as good a precedent as Mark Pryor.

[H. Ross Peron]

Any chance Mrs. Obama will pull a Hillary?

[KCDem]

Any chance Mrs. Obama will pull a Hillary?

No, she hates politics.

[Bigby]

Any chance Mrs. Obama will pull a Hillary?

No, she hates politics.

Even more than she loves health food?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This likely starts at Lean D, but with a great campaign and a non-Madigan democrat, Kirk might win.

[Nichlemn]

I'm going to make a bold, bold prediction: Charlie Cook's initial rating for this race will be "Toss Up".

Also, he won't change it in any direction until at least mid-2016 barring some kind of freak wave emerging before then. Good chance it stays at "Toss Up" all cycle, even if Kirk wins or loses by 10.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm going to make a bold, bold prediction: Charlie Cook's initial rating for this race will be "Toss Up".

Also, he won't change it in any direction until at least mid-2016 barring some kind of freak wave emerging before then. Good chance it stays at "Toss Up" all cycle, even if Kirk wins or loses by 10.

Cook needs to remodel his ratings. Either pull a Sabato and call every race by election day, or split up the toss-up category like Rothenberg does (Pure Toss-Up, Toss-Up/Tilt D, Toss-Up/Tilt R).

[Vega]

Out of curiosity, when does Sabato's first 2016 prediction map go up?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'm going to make a bold, bold prediction: Charlie Cook's initial rating for this race will be "Toss Up".

Also, he won't change it in any direction until at least mid-2016 barring some kind of freak wave emerging before then. Good chance it stays at "Toss Up" all cycle, even if Kirk wins or loses by 10.

Cook never seems like calling incumbent races an advantage for the other party. But this one obviously is.

[Nichlemn]

I'm going to make a bold, bold prediction: Charlie Cook's initial rating for this race will be "Toss Up".

Also, he won't change it in any direction until at least mid-2016 barring some kind of freak wave emerging before then. Good chance it stays at "Toss Up" all cycle, even if Kirk wins or loses by 10.

Cook needs to remodel his ratings. Either pull a Sabato and call every race by election day, or split up the toss-up category like Rothenberg does (Pure Toss-Up, Toss-Up/Tilt D, Toss-Up/Tilt R).

I just went and checked his last ratings for 2014, man they were bad. Pryor and Landrieu "toss ups"? Seven toss-ups total? Michigan "Lean D"? I'm sure he'll convince himself he did well because he didn't "miscall" any races and the ordinal rankings of competitiveness are basically right. But pretty much anyone could do that.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm going to make a bold, bold prediction: Charlie Cook's initial rating for this race will be "Toss Up".

Also, he won't change it in any direction until at least mid-2016 barring some kind of freak wave emerging before then. Good chance it stays at "Toss Up" all cycle, even if Kirk wins or loses by 10.

Cook needs to remodel his ratings. Either pull a Sabato and call every race by election day, or split up the toss-up category like Rothenberg does (Pure Toss-Up, Toss-Up/Tilt D, Toss-Up/Tilt R).

I just went and checked his last ratings for 2014, man they were bad. Pryor and Landrieu "toss ups"? Seven toss-ups total? Michigan "Lean D"? I'm sure he'll convince himself he did well because he didn't "miscall" any races and the ordinal rankings of competitiveness are basically right. But pretty much anyone could do that.

It's really best to look at Cook's Current Ratings like this:

Solid: Barring unforeseen circumstances, this race will go for one side or the other.
Likely: Barring foreseeable but unlikely circumstances, this race will go for one side or the other.
Lean = Sabato's Likely
Toss-Up = Sabato's Lean/Toss-Up combined.

[Nichlemn]

I'm going to make a bold, bold prediction: Charlie Cook's initial rating for this race will be "Toss Up".

Also, he won't change it in any direction until at least mid-2016 barring some kind of freak wave emerging before then. Good chance it stays at "Toss Up" all cycle, even if Kirk wins or loses by 10.

Cook needs to remodel his ratings. Either pull a Sabato and call every race by election day, or split up the toss-up category like Rothenberg does (Pure Toss-Up, Toss-Up/Tilt D, Toss-Up/Tilt R).

I just went and checked his last ratings for 2014, man they were bad. Pryor and Landrieu "toss ups"? Seven toss-ups total? Michigan "Lean D"? I'm sure he'll convince himself he did well because he didn't "miscall" any races and the ordinal rankings of competitiveness are basically right. But pretty much anyone could do that.

It's really best to look at Cook's Current Ratings like this:

Solid: Barring unforeseen circumstances, this race will go for one side or the other.
Likely: Barring foreseeable but unlikely circumstances, this race will go for one side or the other.
Lean = Sabato's Likely
Toss-Up = Sabato's Lean/Toss-Up combined.

I'm not complaining that it's "wrong". You could define those categories to mean whatever you want them to. It's just so gutless and simplistic that it doesn't showcase any skill in forecasting. Any muppet could tell you what the competitive races were, just stuffing them all under "toss up" doesn't tell us anything.

Although, in the age of FiveThirtyEight, I think even "Lean" and "Likely" aren't sufficiently granular.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Tons of House Dems were pro-life/anti-gay marriage. They got Blanched anyway. These districts only care if you're associated the black guy's party these days. Nothing else matters.

Maffei is the poster child for useless Blue Dog. He had a conservative voting record in a D+5 district and lost by like 20 points.

[BM]

Who the HELL is going to run for this seat? I know there will be no shortage of power hungry Democrats in Illinois, but any good candidates?

[MATTROSE94]

This likely starts at Lean D, but with a great campaign and a non-Madigan democrat, Kirk might win.

Would Mark Kirk win if Pat Quinn gets the Democratic nomination?

[Franzl]

Kirk will lose in any presidential year that isn't a high Republican win. May not be a huge margin, though.

[KCDem]

Who the HELL is going to run for this seat? I know there will be no shortage of power hungry Democrats in Illinois, but any good candidates?

Lisa Madigan will Blanche Kirk.

[The Vorlon]

Quite early, but I guess he is trying to remove all doubt before ILGOP starts thinking about recruiting.

It will be another interesting one in the Land of Lincoln, that's for sure. He's got a tough battle ahead.

http://abc7chicago.com/politics/us-sen-mark-kirk-to-run-for-re-election-in-2016-/382589/

Kirk is a nice guy, a legitimate moderate, and I think it is good for both parties to have a few (or more) SEnators who come from behind enemy lines.

That being said... He will need a weak opponent, a great campaign, and a lot of luck to get reelected.

[BM]

HOW IS HIS HEALTH?!

[King]

HOW IS HIS HEALTH?!

Just a minor stroke. Nothing serious like Hillary bumping her head that one time.

[sg0508]

He's going to have a very rough time, but there's a chance.  He has significant issues to overcome:

1) It will be a presidential year; turnout will be higher
2) The Democrat at the top of the ticket is likely to score at least 55% in IL to win the states EVs
3) Cook County vote will be way up; a GOP candidate breaking 1/3 of that vote in a presidential year is going to be rough
4) His health is in question
5) He's walked the GOP line (so I read) in the Senate rather than being more moderate, which he was in the House
6) The Democratic bench seems strong.

[Maistre]

May God bless you on your tough journey ahead Senator Kirk. I'm pulling for you.