What happened in Vermont?

[IceSpear]

Most people expected Shumlin to win by an underwhelming margin considering it's Vermont, but I don't think anyone expected him to win by a point (and fall below 50%). What caused this? I can't imagine it was because he was "too liberal", considering they elected a literal socialist with >70%.

[Free Bird]

Its old blood showed it isn't totally gone

[ElectionsGuy]

New England Republicans still exist. I think it had more to do with their long statewide and local affection for Republicans for so many years rather than against Shumlin, but I did hear his popularity was slipping or something.

[Rockefeller GOP]

You're damn right we still exist!  For example, Brian Sandoval would likely win several NE states vs., say, Joe Manchin.

[Lief 🗽]

You're damn right we still exist!  For example, Brian Sandoval would likely win several NE states vs., say, Joe Manchin.

I would vote for Brian Sandoval over Joe Manchin.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

You're damn right we still exist!  For example, Brian Sandoval would likely win several NE states vs., say, Joe Manchin.

I would vote for Brian Sandoval over Joe Manchin.

Why?  Manchin is a FF

[Holmes]

I don't think Shumlin has ever really been that popular. He's never had the most impressive margins of victory in the past.

[tpfkaw]

They like the idea of being "too liberal" more than the reality of it.

[New_Conservative]

Shumlin was advocating for a single payer healthcare system, I don't think people thought too kindly of the idea during the campaign.

[tpfkaw]

Shumlin was advocating for a single payer healthcare system, I don't think people thought too kindly of the idea during the campaign.

I thought they'd already passed that?

[DrScholl]

Flukes occur and this is one of them.

[New_Conservative]

Shumlin was advocating for a single payer healthcare system, I don't think people thought too kindly of the idea during the campaign.

I thought they'd already passed that?

You're right, but it was still an issue that was brought up in the campaign.

[ElectionsGuy]

Shumlin was advocating for a single payer healthcare system, I don't think people thought too kindly of the idea during the campaign.

I thought they'd already passed that?

You're right, but it was still an issue that was brought up in the campaign.

As IceSpear said, they elected Sanders to the senate with >70% of the vote, and he enthusiastically supports a single-payer healthcare system, so I don't that's the answer. Unless they want someone much more liberal to represent them federally than statewide, IDK.

[KCDem]

Same as what happened in Virginia. Low turnout, people thinking the incumbent had the election in the bag, etc.

[Ebowed]

Shumlin has never had Sanders levels of popularity, and indeed won his first election in 2010 by a similar margin, and although he won re-election by 20 points in 2012, he lost the Northeastern portion of the state.  He hails from Windham county (the most left-leaning county in the state) and is known for having a more confrontational and/or arrogant style.  Because the Democrats have legislative supermajorities, this has never been a problem for Shumlin in enacting his agenda.

[IceSpear]

I just noticed that Romney actually got 5,000 more votes than Milne did. Wow.

[windjammer]

Simply, this is Vermont.

See Matt From Vermont in Atlasia: despite being basically a trot left-libertarian, he has contantly voted for the most conservative candidates in the senate elections (Deus over Bore) and in the presidential elections (Lumine over Marokai).

[homelycooking]

When Peter Shumlin was a State Senator, he represented one of the most liberal/leftist regions of New England, let alone Vermont. 83% of voters in his hometown of Putney chose to reelect Obama. Shumlin has never developed much of an ability to govern with respect to the interests of moderate and conservative voters because he has never needed to do so in order to win elections. Recall that in the 2010 primary election for Governor, Shumlin didn't even win a quarter of the vote - five candidates split the vote almost evenly, with Shumlin barely coming out on top due to a huge friends-and-neighbors vote from Windham County.

The fact that Vermont is so electorally favorable to Democrats in a national environment has encouraged him to govern Vermont as if he were representing his Brattleboro-area constituency, by decriminalizing marijuana, presiding over same-sex unions, approving physician-assisted suicide, championing single-payer healthcare, etc. While the national Republican Party may be out-of-sync with the values of Vermont voters, Shumlin's rather far-left program opened up a huge space in the center for a moderate Republican, campaigning on economic issues and taxation, to compete for independent and even center-left voters.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Didn't Vermont screw up its healthcare website pretty badly? I think that's partly why Brown lost in Maryland as well...

[Sol]

Also, the Progressives ran a candidate.

[Hash]

Also, the Progressives ran a candidate.

No, they didn't. The strongest third-party candidate was a Libertarian, the others were Emily Peyton (a  woman obsessed with hemp), Pete Diamondstone (a far-left perennial candidate from the socialist Liberty Union), crazy hat lady Cris Ericson (your True Leftist conspiracy theorist whackjob type) and redneck dude Bernard Peters (see his picture). They did run a candidate for LG, where the Republican incumbent had no Dem opponent, and got 36%.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

New England Republicans still exist. I think it had more to do with their long statewide and local affection for Republicans for so many years rather than against Shumlin, but I did hear his popularity was slipping or something.

That affection is pretty much gone, unless it's for a moderate Republican like Jim Douglas or Phil Scott.

[Mister Mets]

I doubt it helped that Shumlin was head of the DGA. It nationalized a gubernatorial election in a state where Republicans sometimes win those races. Republican Jim Douglas was elected to four two-year terms as Governor between Howard Dean and Shumlin.

[RINO Tom]

JMO, but I think the nationalization of politics over the last two decades has really "hidden" just how many moderates that are still out there (think people in VT who voted for Obama and against Sumlin, people in AR who voted for McCain and Romney but also for Beebe, etc.).  When a race truly becomes localized, a moderate can absolutely still win in these kinds of states.  There are really only a few states in the country that are SO partisan that they simply just don't really elect members of the other party hardly ever.  Utah and Wyoming come to mind for the GOP, and Rhode Island and Delaware come to mind for the Democrats.  IMO, states like VT, AR, ME, WV - states that used to vote loyally for the opposite party they tend to support now - really don't fall into that category, no matter how lopsided their Presidential vote can be.

[Anonymouse]

I doubt it helped that Shumlin was head of the DGA. It nationalized a gubernatorial election in a state where Republicans sometimes win those races. Republican Jim Douglas was elected to four two-year terms as Governor between Howard Dean and Shumlin.

You win.