Is Maine trending GOP?

[Free Bird]

Most of us expected LePage to lose. But he ended up winning the highest % since Angus King in 1998. On top of that, Bruce Poliquin won the second district, which the GOP couldn't even pick up in its Maine sweep in 2010. So I am asking if Maine is trending at all to the GOP. Could the second CD possibly be won by a Republican in a coming presidential election?

[Boston Bread]

Maine is swingy and thus gets picked off in waves because they are willing to vote for republicans. I don't understand the surge for LePage, that's true. But it trended towards Obama in 2012 so there is no pattern to it really. We should know by now a trend can't be extrapolated from one election, as each successive environment has been wildly different from the previous since 2006.

[tpfkaw]

Unclear and yes. It is funny that with a swing of only 5.14, the GOP would have swept the New England gubernatorial races.

[Joe Republic]

It was a low turnout election, mainly for Democrats.  Presidential elections are not.

[Free Bird]

So combine with elasticity and national environment, a Republican could win at least part of it? I think we can come to an agreement here that Maine isn't really a blue state. It is an Independent state. If another Perot-caliber figure came around, I think they might actually win this state in general. Can we agree to that sentiment?

[RedSLC]

No, and neither is Wisconsin, Michigan, etc. As seen with 2010 vs. 2012, midterm turnout is not indicative of presidential voting.

[bedstuy]

It's not a swing state for Presidential elections.  Presidential elections divide out much more neatly on cultural and social issues like abortion.  There are very few cultural Christian conservatives in Maine, so the GOP won't stand a chance of winning Maine, except in an giant landslide.

[tpfkaw]

There are very few cultural Christian conservatives in Maine

LOL

[DS0816]

Most of us expected LePage to lose. But he ended up winning the highest % since Angus King in 1998. On top of that, Bruce Poliquin won the second district, which the GOP couldn't even pick up in its Maine sweep in 2010. So I am asking if Maine is trending at all to the GOP. Could the second CD possibly be won by a Republican in a coming presidential election?

You're mentioning midterm congressional elections.

Perhaps a part of what you sense with Maine is the same as what I consider Michigan: a sh**tty state Democratic Party.

I could be wrong.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Maine, like New Hampshire, have a large numer of independents frequently switching sides. The two are still Democratic-leaning, although not as solid Blue as other New England states.

It was a low turnout election, mainly for Democrats.  Presidential elections are not.

That's quite true for New Hampshire as well. Recently midterms are good for Republicans while presidential election years for Democrats.

[TDAS04]

Maybe slightly, but not enough for it to be a swing state in presidential elections any time soon.

[DrScholl]

No, midterm elections do not represent trends.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Did we ever REALLY trend away on non-Presidential elections?  We haven't had a Democratic Senator since the 1980s, and the number of registered Republicans and Democrats is more or less equal (with Independents outnumbering both).  Until the national GOP drops the folksy rural crap (I know, ironic, as Maine is quite rural, but I'm referring more or less to Republicans targeting people with culturally conservative tenancies to the point that it alienates ... well, everyone else), Maine won't vote Republican in a Presidential election anytime soon.  But a socially moderate GOP (long way to go on that hope) would likely pick up Maine (just as it had for decades before the Culture War fiasco).

But make no mistake: this is a moderate state, period.

[Holmes]

It's more Democratic leaning than anything else, but with an electorate that is comprised of a high number of Independents, obviously Republicans can still win. Especially in years like 2010 or 2014. It's not like New Hampshire where it swings to one extreme to the other, but strange results will happen.

[solarstorm]

Maybe Michaud's loss has to do with his homosexuality.
Of course, one could say, he had been reelected to the more conservative of Maine's two congressional district several times, but the truth is, that was before his coming out. Plus he hasn't won any of the counties in that district.

[tpfkaw]

Maybe Michaud's loss has to do with his homosexuality.
Of course, one could say, he had been reelected to the more conservative of Maine's two congressional district several times, but the truth is, that was before his coming out. Plus he hasn't won any of the counties in that district.

It had quite a bit to do with his homosexuality. See: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=23&year=2005&f=0&off=50&elect=0

Also why I find laughable the idea that there are "very few cultural Christian conservatives in Maine."

This was something of a banner year for homophobic campaigns, unfortunately. DeMaio-Peters and, to a lesser extent, Gibson-Eldridge saw some extremely nasty dog-whistling, and there were also some slightly dog-whistleish ads aired on behalf of Seth Moulton over here. ("Seth Moulton served our country during four tours in Iraq..." blue-tinted photo of Moulton in combat gear "...career politician Richard Tisei..." pink-tinted unflattering photo of Tisei).

[bgwah]

It's also one of the whitest states in the country. If whites are swinging hard to the Republicans, it will be reflected even in places like New England.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Nope.
New Hampshire on the hand. ..

[Ebowed]

Nope.
New Hampshire on the hand. ..

New Hampshire is supposed to be "trending Republican" every two years or so, but 2014 does not look like an especially good year to make that case.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No. It was considered a swing state in 2000.

[New_Conservative]

Nope.
New Hampshire on the hand. ..

I disagree, I don't think there is much trend in favor of the Republicans in New Hampshire in comparison to recent elections. I still think Shaheen would have lost if she faced a candidate stronger than Brown (I think it's a miracle he received 48% of the vote after all of the negative press he received), but I don't think that necessarily means the state is trending towards the Republicans. It is a state with a lot of unenrolled voters that can swing towards either party based on national mood.

[Mr. Illini]

Minnesota is also trending Republican. That doesn't mean it is going anywhere.

[Skill and Chance]

It's also one of the whitest states in the country. If whites are swinging hard to the Republicans, it will be reflected even in places like New England.

White voting patterns have now been statistically indistinguishable for 6 years, hovering around 58-60%R/37-39%D.  The white vote swung 6% right in 2010 and has basically stayed there.

[Lief 🗽]

Yes, the white working class backlash seems to be very strong there. If the Republicans are smart enough to focus resources there in 2016, they can swing it.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Bruce Poliquin and Paul LePage are French-Canadian. French-Canadian working class voters are willing to vote for Republican candidates that are part of their tribe but not for Generic R candidates at the presidential level. In Maine, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, white working class support for the Democratic Party has proven to be durable at the federal level: these voters are not staunch social conservatives and don't care for southern-soaked, mouth-breathing rhetoric about "family values".  Paul LePage understands this: his campaign focused on bashing elites and immigrants, a great strategy at the state-level that would yield disastrous results for the GOP in crucial swing states.

1996 Presidential Race


2012 Presidential Race