Is Maine trending GOP?
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  Is Maine trending GOP?
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #25 on: November 09, 2014, 11:22:08 PM »

Michaud is also French-Canadian though. Why would that have made a difference in the governor's race?
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #26 on: November 09, 2014, 11:26:55 PM »

To partially answer the question in the OP, ME-2 definitely swung very hard to the right, seeing as Poliquin and an independent who ran to his right combined for 58.18% of the vote. Even in a wave year and a swingy state, that's a pretty remarkable result in a D+2 district.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #27 on: November 09, 2014, 11:40:46 PM »

Michaud is also French-Canadian though. Why would that have made a difference in the governor's race?

He's a gay French-Canadian who is a "career politician": not exactly an attractive candidate to French-Canadian working class voters who had the option of voting for another French-Canadian who supports bear hunting.

Lewiston, Maine results:
Paul LePage 6486 49.3%
Mike Michaud 5541 42%
Elliott Cutler 1117 8.4%

Lewiston, Maine Presidential
Barack Obama 60.6%
Mitt Romney 36.5%

Lewiston, Maine Gay Marriage
Yes 47%
No 53%
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #28 on: November 09, 2014, 11:49:21 PM »

As an aside, I think it's pretty likely that Bruce Poliquin has significant levels of indigenous ancestry. This is really common among Acadians from New Brunswick.

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shua
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« Reply #29 on: November 09, 2014, 11:52:34 PM »

Here are partisan swing and trend maps for Maine 2012 Presidential to 2014 Gubernatorial.  (Cutler obtained between 7 and 10% in every county, so that introduces a minor variation).


The smallest swings toward the GOP in Maine were in the North/East parts of Michaud's district (and also in in Portland), but the greatest swings toward the GOP were also in Michaud's district - in the West.

On the one hand, Androscoggin County swung hard to LePage compared to the Presidential result. On the other hand, Aroostook County was the smallest swing of any county.  So I'd question whether French-Canadian identity and/or social conservatism is very explanatory of this result.
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Sol
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« Reply #30 on: November 09, 2014, 11:54:25 PM »

Androscoggin is very heavily French-Canadian also though.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #31 on: November 10, 2014, 12:03:52 AM »

I think the more relevant swing-trend maps would be 2014-gov (LePage vs. combined Michaud-Cutler) and 2010-gov (combined LePage-Moody vs. combined Cutler-Mitchell).
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shua
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« Reply #32 on: November 10, 2014, 12:06:12 AM »

Androscoggin is very heavily French-Canadian also though.

That's what I meant - you have a county with lots of French-Canadians that swung to LePage, and you have one that swung comparatively little and voted for Michaud more than some of the more Anglo, more socially liberal places on the coast.  There's not a clear pattern in that sense.
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shua
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« Reply #33 on: November 10, 2014, 01:31:24 PM »

I think the more relevant swing-trend maps would be 2014-gov (LePage vs. combined Michaud-Cutler) and 2010-gov (combined LePage-Moody vs. combined Cutler-Mitchell).

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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #34 on: November 13, 2014, 11:02:48 PM »

The leftie war on white America is hurting them
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Brittain33
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« Reply #35 on: November 14, 2014, 12:49:01 PM »

The leftie war on white America is hurting them

stop it stop it stop it
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #36 on: November 14, 2014, 08:22:44 PM »

Michaud is also French-Canadian though. Why would that have made a difference in the governor's race?

So is LePage. That is a wash.
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Miles
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« Reply #37 on: November 14, 2014, 08:23:51 PM »

The leftie war on white America is hurting them

Hmm, forget KCDem, this guy sounds more like krazen sock.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #38 on: November 14, 2014, 08:26:42 PM »

The leftie war on white America is hurting them

In most places, anyway. They did gerrymander Massachusetts quite well, but even there Baker won non Cambridge whites.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #39 on: November 14, 2014, 08:48:22 PM »

The leftie war on white America is hurting them

What Leftie war?

The old New Left has at most fossil relevance to contemporary politics. The Old Right, other than overt racists of the type of the White Citizens Councils, of the time  is much more relevant to today's politics.

When the wage cuts and tax shifts that the Hard Right wants occur to the detriment of working people of all kinds, then poor whites are going to turn against the economic elites. Whiteness may make one more sympathetic to the Right side of the culture wars, but it cannot insulate one from justice against all poor people.
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #40 on: November 16, 2014, 07:48:11 PM »
« Edited: November 16, 2014, 07:49:43 PM by CountryClassSF »

ME-02 race is striking.  The 3rd party candidate I think was a conservative.  He got something around 10-11%, but Polinquin (sp?) still won.

I think this is the first time a Republican has held this seat since Olympia Snowe before she ran for Senate.  

What's more impressive is that LePage improved his 2010 standing, and exit polls showed he would have won by 3 points without Cutler in the race.  Remarkable.  This was very pleasant, and he is a kind-hearted governor and one of my favorite executives.  He won everywhere but Portland, which has more in common with San Francisco than it does Maine.

In response to your commentary, who on the Right is advocating or has advocated wage cuts?
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #41 on: November 16, 2014, 07:50:57 PM »

The leftie war on white America is hurting them

In most places, anyway. They did gerrymander Massachusetts quite well, but even there Baker won non Cambridge whites.

Yeah. It's interesting.  It seems like a lot of Middlesex County  just doesn't like Martha Coakley.  In the 2010 special and now in 2014 Gov race, that was her biggest underperformance.

Mass is just simply never going to send a Republican to Congress again because of the gerrymandering.  Dems were smart to dump Tierney. 
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jfern
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« Reply #42 on: November 16, 2014, 09:19:01 PM »

The leftie war on white America is hurting them

In most places, anyway. They did gerrymander Massachusetts quite well, but even there Baker won non Cambridge whites.

Yeah. It's interesting.  It seems like a lot of Middlesex County  just doesn't like Martha Coakley.  In the 2010 special and now in 2014 Gov race, that was her biggest underperformance.

Mass is just simply never going to send a Republican to Congress again because of the gerrymandering.  Dems were smart to dump Tierney. 

The irony of someone with SF in their username claiming that Democrats only win white areas because of gerrymandering. Yeah, that's why the >70% white Castro votes like 90% Democratic. Obviously.
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New_Conservative
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« Reply #43 on: November 16, 2014, 11:28:42 PM »

The leftie war on white America is hurting them

In most places, anyway. They did gerrymander Massachusetts quite well, but even there Baker won non Cambridge whites.

Yeah. It's interesting.  It seems like a lot of Middlesex County  just doesn't like Martha Coakley.  In the 2010 special and now in 2014 Gov race, that was her biggest underperformance.

Mass is just simply never going to send a Republican to Congress again because of the gerrymandering.  Dems were smart to dump Tierney. 

The irony of someone with SF in their username claiming that Democrats only win white areas because of gerrymandering. Yeah, that's why the >70% white Castro votes like 90% Democratic. Obviously.

He is right, the Democrats did a good job gerrymandering Massachusetts. My district (MA-4) is probably the most gerrymandered in the state.
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Sol
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« Reply #44 on: November 16, 2014, 11:35:13 PM »

The leftie war on white America is hurting them

In most places, anyway. They did gerrymander Massachusetts quite well, but even there Baker won non Cambridge whites.

Yeah. It's interesting.  It seems like a lot of Middlesex County  just doesn't like Martha Coakley.  In the 2010 special and now in 2014 Gov race, that was her biggest underperformance.

Mass is just simply never going to send a Republican to Congress again because of the gerrymandering.  Dems were smart to dump Tierney. 

The irony of someone with SF in their username claiming that Democrats only win white areas because of gerrymandering. Yeah, that's why the >70% white Castro votes like 90% Democratic. Obviously.

He is right, the Democrats did a good job gerrymandering Massachusetts. My district (MA-4) is probably the most gerrymandered in the state.

Most fair maps of MA would have 0 GOP seats, or just one D-leaning tossup with the rest as safe D. It's more about incumbent protection and avoiding changing lines.
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shua
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« Reply #45 on: November 16, 2014, 11:58:18 PM »

The leftie war on white America is hurting them

In most places, anyway. They did gerrymander Massachusetts quite well, but even there Baker won non Cambridge whites.

Yeah. It's interesting.  It seems like a lot of Middlesex County  just doesn't like Martha Coakley.  In the 2010 special and now in 2014 Gov race, that was her biggest underperformance.

Mass is just simply never going to send a Republican to Congress again because of the gerrymandering.  Dems were smart to dump Tierney. 

The irony of someone with SF in their username claiming that Democrats only win white areas because of gerrymandering. Yeah, that's why the >70% white Castro votes like 90% Democratic. Obviously.

He is right, the Democrats did a good job gerrymandering Massachusetts. My district (MA-4) is probably the most gerrymandered in the state.

I would guess that would be the 7th (which slightly overlaps at its northern edge with the original "Gerrymander")
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« Reply #46 on: November 17, 2014, 01:22:55 AM »

Maine is certainly a state to follow in the next decade.
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #47 on: November 17, 2014, 04:08:47 AM »

The leftie war on white America is hurting them

In most places, anyway. They did gerrymander Massachusetts quite well, but even there Baker won non Cambridge whites.

Yeah. It's interesting.  It seems like a lot of Middlesex County  just doesn't like Martha Coakley.  In the 2010 special and now in 2014 Gov race, that was her biggest underperformance.

Mass is just simply never going to send a Republican to Congress again because of the gerrymandering.  Dems were smart to dump Tierney. 

The irony of someone with SF in their username claiming that Democrats only win white areas because of gerrymandering. Yeah, that's why the >70% white Castro votes like 90% Democratic. Obviously.

That is because the Castro is the homosexual vote. I said that Massachusetts congressional districts were gerrymandered, not sure where you got anything about whites from... But white folks as a whole are solidly Republicans per the exit polls - you can't take one radical activist neighborhood of San Francisco and compare it to the nationwide white community
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jfern
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« Reply #48 on: November 17, 2014, 05:37:44 AM »

The leftie war on white America is hurting them

In most places, anyway. They did gerrymander Massachusetts quite well, but even there Baker won non Cambridge whites.

Yeah. It's interesting.  It seems like a lot of Middlesex County  just doesn't like Martha Coakley.  In the 2010 special and now in 2014 Gov race, that was her biggest underperformance.

Mass is just simply never going to send a Republican to Congress again because of the gerrymandering.  Dems were smart to dump Tierney.  

The irony of someone with SF in their username claiming that Democrats only win white areas because of gerrymandering. Yeah, that's why the >70% white Castro votes like 90% Democratic. Obviously.

That is because the Castro is the homosexual vote. I said that Massachusetts congressional districts were gerrymandered, not sure where you got anything about whites from... But white folks as a whole are solidly Republicans per the exit polls - you can't take one radical activist neighborhood of San Francisco and compare it to the nationwide white community

Well, as someone with SF in your username, I'm sure you are aware that the Castro isn't the only overwhelmingly white neighborhood in or around SF that is heavily Democratic. The cities of Mill Valley and Piedmont are both very white and very Democratic.
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #49 on: November 17, 2014, 08:26:40 AM »

Of course, but nothing to the tune of 90% outside of the Castro or Haight. This area is full of granola eaters and latte drinkers- that embraced the counterculturist lifestyle and were unable to reside in a traditional American community.
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