Is Maine trending GOP?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Here are partisan swing and trend maps for Maine 2012 Presidential to 2014 Gubernatorial.  (Cutler obtained between 7 and 10% in every county, so that introduces a minor variation).


The smallest swings toward the GOP in Maine were in the North/East parts of Michaud's district (and also in in Portland), but the greatest swings toward the GOP were also in Michaud's district - in the West.

On the one hand, Androscoggin County swung hard to LePage compared to the Presidential result. On the other hand, Aroostook County was the smallest swing of any county.  So I'd question whether French-Canadian identity and/or social conservatism is very explanatory of this result.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Androscoggin is very heavily French-Canadian also though.

That's what I meant - you have a county with lots of French-Canadians that swung to LePage, and you have one that swung comparatively little and voted for Michaud more than some of the more Anglo, more socially liberal places on the coast.  There's not a clear pattern in that sense.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I think the more relevant swing-trend maps would be 2014-gov (LePage vs. combined Michaud-Cutler) and 2010-gov (combined LePage-Moody vs. combined Cutler-Mitchell).

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

The leftie war on white America is hurting them

In most places, anyway. They did gerrymander Massachusetts quite well, but even there Baker won non Cambridge whites.

Yeah. It's interesting.  It seems like a lot of Middlesex County  just doesn't like Martha Coakley.  In the 2010 special and now in 2014 Gov race, that was her biggest underperformance.

Mass is just simply never going to send a Republican to Congress again because of the gerrymandering.  Dems were smart to dump Tierney. 

The irony of someone with SF in their username claiming that Democrats only win white areas because of gerrymandering. Yeah, that's why the >70% white Castro votes like 90% Democratic. Obviously.

He is right, the Democrats did a good job gerrymandering Massachusetts. My district (MA-4) is probably the most gerrymandered in the state.

I would guess that would be the 7th (which slightly overlaps at its northern edge with the original "Gerrymander")