Virginia will be a swing state. And given the near misses of the Republicans in 2013 and 2014, there is probably a majority there for a Republican candidate. Romney did not lose that badly in Virginia; he carried 47.26%.
Assuming that as your baseline, a strong Republican campaign can take 49.5% of the state. Which is pretty much what they need to do to win, assuming 1.5% goes to other candidates (as it did in 2012). It's not that far of a leap from 47.26% to 49.5%. In other words, Republicans need just 85,000 more votes to get there, from the Romney total of 1,822,522.
Republicans can compete in Virginia, and Gillespie has demonstrated how a Republican can actually win the state. Particularly the point about outreach in North Virginia. I can't forecast if Virginia will go Republican in 2016, but it is plausible, reasonably so, that it can be Republican.
