The point is, however, consistently, statewide Republican candidates have polled in a fashion within the last 3 years to be competitive in Virginia, across all political stripes. Gillespie finished with 48%, Cucinelli 45% (to McAuliffe's 48%), and Romney (47.26%).
Re: the Arlington remark, there is some evidence in fact, that Republicans can make significant inroads into Loudon, Prince William, and Fairfax Counties (less so than the other counties, but still), while dominating Southwest Virginia, that could compose a electoral coalition enough to win the state's 13 electoral votes.
Losing the Presidential race by 4, governorship by 3, and a U.S. Senate seat by less than 1 suggests, when added up, that Republicans still are electorally viable. It does not mean that they will win, but that they do have, in fact, a route to victory.
Re: the latest post. I don't know about the government jobs situation and while that's a possibility, I dispute that demographic drift is going to accelerate enough from 2012 to 2016 to render Virginia unwinnable. In fact, exit polls in 2014 and 2012 show the same amount of demographics at play (70% white, 30% others).
If the share of the white vote was the same in 2012 and 2014, that's actually bad news for Republicans. The midterm electorate should be much more favorable to the Republicans than the presidential electorate. If they're essentially the same, that suggests there is a trend toward the Democrats.
That being said, I agree with most of what your post. I think Virginia is still moving leftward, just not at a pace that would place it out of play in 2016.
