Virginia

[Devils30]

As poorly as Warner did, does anyone else agree that Tuesday was a pretty bleak sign for them in 2016? Warner pretty much lost all his white southern support, got the same 37% Obama did and yet still pulled off a win. Also had pathetic turnout in Prince William and Loudoun. Tough to see the 2016 math working for the GOP here, tougher than Wisconsin and Iowa.

[Devils30]

If the NRSC had done that then the Dems would have countered by spending more. I know Warner did miserably compared to what was expected. That said, based on DC area voting patterns I'm not sure how much room Gillespie had to climb. Enough to win but a lot less than some here believe. If the 2016 nominee doesn't make major inroads with DC area voters then it's going Democratic by 5 points. Obama got 37% whites and won it by nearly 4, that's probably 5-6% adjusted for 2016.

[Devils30]

New Hampshire is more white college-educated than working class, I think Hillary would begin favored there and Tuesday wasn't exactly a meltdown for NH Dems. Maine is too far left for a Republican to win barring a national landslide.

I agree that Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin are top GOP targets in 2016. Ohio in my mind is more likely to fall than Florida for Dems. Despite Crist losing, the GOP is pretty much maxed out with northern Florida whites and better turnout should help Hillary win it. She might also run a few points ahead of Obama with older northern transplants in Palm Beach, Sarasota etc.

[Devils30]

The Dems don't need NC, at this point its still electoral vote #347. Iowa would be a loss but if we can hold Virginia and Florida then we will win the election.

[Devils30]

Not so sure about that. But there wasn't anything terrible or great about Gillespie as a candidate.

[Devils30]

Virginia will be a swing state. And given the near misses of the Republicans in 2013 and 2014, there is probably a majority there for a Republican candidate. Romney did not lose that badly in Virginia; he carried 47.26%.

Assuming that as your baseline, a strong Republican campaign can take 49.5% of the state. Which is pretty much what they need to do to win, assuming 1.5% goes to other candidates (as it did in 2012). It's not that far of a leap from 47.26% to 49.5%. In other words, Republicans need just 85,000 more votes to get there, from the Romney total of 1,822,522.

Republicans can compete in Virginia, and Gillespie has demonstrated how a Republican can actually win the state. Particularly the point about outreach in North Virginia. I can't forecast if Virginia will go Republican in 2016, but it is plausible, reasonably so, that it can be Republican.

Except for the fact Gillespie didn't win! This was also with poor black turnout, poor DC metro area Democratic performance and the collapse of Warner with southern whites.