Virginia

[Non Swing Voter]

Agreed.  Democrats winning Virginia in an off-year, Republican wave election is further proof that Virginia is a lean democratic state.

Republicans need to face facts, they haven't won a senate race or governors race in a long time, whether it's a Presidential year, a mid-term year, an odd-numbered year.  They simply can't pull it off because the NOVA vote is too overwhelming. 

The one argument Republicans can make is that Warner was popular and Gillespie was underfunded.  This argument is unavailing.  The fact is that Gillespie had almost 100% name recognition in Virginia.  He was a national figure in Washington, DC. 

If Republicans couldn't win Virginia in 2014 they have a wildly uphill battle in 2016 when the electorate will look vastly different. 

Also, few people dispute that Virginia is trending democratic... so another 2 years of demographic changes will also help democrats.

Democrats should be worried about North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado though.  I could see Iowa and North Carolina going Republican in 2016.

[Non Swing Voter]

They are neither important nor winnable. Look up the election results in 2008 and 2012.


This is an Electoral College tie that will most likely result in a Republican being elected president. And it's the most likely victory in 2016.

It's amazing how accurate this was in retrospect.

[Non Swing Voter]

They are neither important nor winnable. Look up the election results in 2008 and 2012.


This is an Electoral College tie that will most likely result in a Republican being elected president. And it's the most likely victory in 2016.

It's amazing how accurate this was in retrospect.

Minus ME-02, he correctly got the EXACT Republican path to 270 in 2016. That's incredibly impressive and the type of foresight that campaigns spend millions of dollars to do less well. This thread is full of some interesting takes, and it's funny to see how on the mark a lot of people were about this state. It's amazing that more people on this board still don't understand the political reality in Virginia - there are just not enough Republican voters for them to carry the state in all but the most unusual circumstances.

yes that's right.  Virginia is basically 46% that will always vote D.  40% that will always vote R.  Maybe 14% in the middle or so, so basically everything has to go right for Republicans to win.  Their problem too is that the electorate is polarized largely on education levels so NoVa tends to have higher turnout.  Virginia is not a good fit for Republicans in the current environment.  Though if Dems push too hard on socialism, this will be one of the first states to slip.