What makes the West Coast so solid?

[Boston Bread]

Both the republican waves of 2010 and 2014 barely reached the states of OR, WA, CA, HI, and AK. In OR, CA, and HI, democratic strength in the legislature and statewide elections remained solid, in a couple instances even pickups (CA, HI governors in 2010, gains in the Oregon legislature in 2014). The WA legislature wasn't solid, but it was close before hand and with almost no change you can't say it joined the wave. And in the house, Democrats will likely wind up with a net change of 0 or -1 in 2014, depending on late counting in CA which favours democrats. In contrast to NY alone which saw 4 democratic losses or more this year. Even in AK, the fact that the state typically votes republican in landslides in presidential years makes Begich and Walker's support downright impressive compared to Pryor or Grimes who did only slightly better than Obama.

Demographically, the solidity of the west doesn't make sense. Democratic strength in OR and WA depend on white support which usually swings in waves. In California, democratic minority support comes more from Latinos rather than Blacks, which would suggest midterm turnout hurts them more than other states. But while turnout was low there, it barely made a dent. Also, these states are thought to be more socially liberal than economically liberal, the type that would vote for republicans downballot, yet it never happens anymore. You would think machine-democratic states with blacks as the primary source of minority support to be the most solid - states like MA, IL, NY, and MD - but all elected republican governors or in NY a republican state senate. Why is that?

[Citizen Hats]

While I can't personally explain Oregon, I have some explanations for California, which is actually the most urban state by population share.  There really aren't that many people beyond the suburbs.

California is an ancestrally Republican state, which leaves it with a wide base of the sorts of affluent people who don't quite appreciate the southern-fried flair of the modern Republican Party, as in the North East.  This gives the Democrats a baseline of white support.  Following that, California's hispanic population were deeply alienated from the Republican Party in the 1990s when they joined the 'kick the Mexican's kids out of school' bandwagon. At the same time, Texas Republicans were building bridges, Californian Republicans were mercilessly setting them alight.

The State was never a home of lots of heavy industry, which leaves a fairly small post-industrial working class to resent things. 

Lastly, the state is demographically dominated by not one, but two of the largest metropolitan areas in the country.  San Francisco's particular liberalism has been linked to it's heritage as the sort of ultimate gold rush boom town, and as a place where large numbers of gay sailors put down routes during the war when they left the military, rather than return home.

[Lincoln Republican]

They smoke too much pot out there.

[IceSpear]

I don't know, but it makes me want to move there.

[Sbane]

There aren't a lot of swing voters in these areas and these areas also have a lot of older, white voters who vote Democrat. In California the fact the state is so democrat also saved them. If you look at Southern California and the Central Valley, there was a massive drop off in Democratic support since it comes in large part from Hispanics and Asians. Still, the areas are just that Democratic that even with a drop off in support, the Democrats could still win. Democrats also have a fairly favorable map in California, especially for a midterm electorate. In a presidential year, the map favors Republicans.

[Boston Bread]

Democrats are going to have more house seats from the left coast than in 2008. What a lack of swing!
My best explanation is that the political culture there, which is less religious and xenophobic, makes the cultural memes republicans use to take white working class voters elsewhere only make them out of touch to whites who would otherwise swing in those states.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Urban white progressives are not very susceptible to the curse of midterm dropoff because they're unusually affluent and educated. They're also very inelastic: moderate Republican candidates can't pierce the urban core of Seattle, Portland and San Francisco. There's no easy point of comparison because the Democratic base of these cities is highly unusual. Posh urban neighborhoods routinely vote for Democrats at rates between 70 and 90 percent. The residents of these neighborhoods always vote.

I'll offer a personal anecdote: when I lived in Portland, upper middle class neighborhoods would be replete with yard signs. It was evident that highly progressive neighborhoods had very high rates of civic engagement. This pattern is the norm in Western urban centers: there's a direct correlation between stereotypical liberal beliefs and high rates of civic engagement.

2006 Gubernatorial Election, Multnomah County

Ted Kulongoski 68.4%
Ron Saxton 25.2%

2010 Gubernatorial Election, Multnomah County

John Kitzhaber 70.5%
Chris Dudley 27.4%

[RI]

Washington and Oregon have vote-by-mail, which I believe stabilizes turnout to an extent or at the very least gives everyone an equal opportunity to vote. Alaska and Hawaii generally have entirely different sets of issues they face as opposed to the mainland.

[Boston Bread]

Urban white progressives are not very susceptible to the curse of midterm dropoff because they're unusually affluent and educated. They're also very inelastic: moderate Republican candidates can't pierce the urban core of Seattle, Portland and San Francisco. There's no easy point of comparison because the Democratic base of these cities is highly unusual. Posh urban neighborhoods routinely vote for Democrats at rates between 70 and 90 percent. The residents of these neighborhoods always vote.

I'll offer a personal anecdote: when I lived in Portland, upper middle class neighborhoods would be replete with yard signs. It was evident that highly progressive neighborhoods had very high rates of civic engagement. This pattern is the norm in Western urban centers: there's a direct correlation between stereotypical liberal beliefs and high rates of civic engagement.

2006 Gubernatorial Election, Multnomah County

Ted Kulongoski 68.4%
Ron Saxton 25.2%

2010 Gubernatorial Election, Multnomah County

John Kitzhaber 70.5%
Chris Dudley 27.4%

Is this something inherent in the culture, or a product of democratic outreach? Could this be replicated in other states? Would it require economic development/education levels that aren't yet realistic in the short term?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

There aren't a lot of swing voters in these areas and these areas also have a lot of older, white voters who vote Democrat. In California the fact the state is so democrat also saved them. If you look at Southern California and the Central Valley, there was a massive drop off in Democratic support since it comes in large part from Hispanics and Asians. Still, the areas are just that Democratic that even with a drop off in support, the Democrats could still win. Democrats also have a fairly favorable map in California, especially for a midterm electorate. In a presidential year, the map favors Republicans.

The key is "older, white voters who vote Democrat". Old white voters in Seattle, Portland and San Francisco vote no differently from Latinos or students. If anything, old white voters are more Democratic than Asian voters in these metro areas.

God bless the Left Coast.

[AggregateDemand]

Geography. There is a stark geographical contrast between the coastal regions and rugged desert-like interior, and it leads to a stark cultural contrast between the regions as well. The coastal region is highly desirable real estate with many wealthy individuals and powerful businesses. Nearly all citizens and businesses are ecologically conscious. The interior regions are populated by redneck bumpkins, farmers and energy/resource people who exploit the earth, exterminate animals, and carry guns. They want to be free of urban regulatory entanglements.

The clash of cultures is more stark than any electoral rhetoric, and since most people on the Left Coast live in the coastal region, the states are solidly Democratic.

If the interior turned into agricultural panhandlers whose only desire was stealing coastal money via wealth redistribution, the coast would turn red.

[Boston Bread]

Portland really sounds like my type of place Except the anti-flouride hysteria, but I'll gladly take a place that's just halfway to perfection in these times.

[Citizen Hats]

Geography. There is a stark geographical contrast between the coastal regions and rugged desert-like interior, and this leads to a stark cultural contrast between the regions as well. The coastal region is highly desirable real estate with many wealthy individuals and powerful businesses. Nearly all citizens and businesses are ecologically conscious. The interior regions are populated by redneck bumpkins, farmers and energy/resource people who exploit the earth, exterminate animals, and carry guns. They want to be free of urban regulatory entanglements.

The clash of cultures is more stark than any electoral rhetoric, and since most people on the Left Coast live in the coastal region, the states are solidly Democratic.

If the interior turned into agricultural panhandlers whose only desire was stealing coastal money via wealth redistribution, the coast would turn red.

Have you looked at the economics of irrigation in California? They already are panhandlers

[Sbane]

There aren't a lot of swing voters in these areas and these areas also have a lot of older, white voters who vote Democrat. In California the fact the state is so democrat also saved them. If you look at Southern California and the Central Valley, there was a massive drop off in Democratic support since it comes in large part from Hispanics and Asians. Still, the areas are just that Democratic that even with a drop off in support, the Democrats could still win. Democrats also have a fairly favorable map in California, especially for a midterm electorate. In a presidential year, the map favors Republicans.

The key is "older, white voters who vote Democrat". Old white voters in Seattle, Portland and San Francisco vote no differently from Latinos or students. If anything, old white voters are more Democratic than Asian voters in these metro areas.

God bless the Left Coast.

Indeed. God bless the hippies.

[Sol]

There aren't a lot of swing voters in these areas and these areas also have a lot of older, white voters who vote Democrat. In California the fact the state is so democrat also saved them. If you look at Southern California and the Central Valley, there was a massive drop off in Democratic support since it comes in large part from Hispanics and Asians. Still, the areas are just that Democratic that even with a drop off in support, the Democrats could still win. Democrats also have a fairly favorable map in California, especially for a midterm electorate. In a presidential year, the map favors Republicans.

The key is "older, white voters who vote Democrat". Old white voters in Seattle, Portland and San Francisco vote no differently from Latinos or students. If anything, old white voters are more Democratic than Asian voters in these metro areas.

God bless the Left Coast.

I wouldn't be surprised if similar voters saved Sinema and Kirkpatrick, on account of Tempe and Flagstaff.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Alaska politics is much more local and personality-oriented than the Mainland. That's why Begich, while likely to lose at the end, managed to make it so narrow. That's why unpopular Parnell is likely to lose to an independent challenger.

[Sbane]

There aren't a lot of swing voters in these areas and these areas also have a lot of older, white voters who vote Democrat. In California the fact the state is so democrat also saved them. If you look at Southern California and the Central Valley, there was a massive drop off in Democratic support since it comes in large part from Hispanics and Asians. Still, the areas are just that Democratic that even with a drop off in support, the Democrats could still win. Democrats also have a fairly favorable map in California, especially for a midterm electorate. In a presidential year, the map favors Republicans.

The key is "older, white voters who vote Democrat". Old white voters in Seattle, Portland and San Francisco vote no differently from Latinos or students. If anything, old white voters are more Democratic than Asian voters in these metro areas.

God bless the Left Coast.

I wouldn't be surprised if similar voters saved Sinema and Kirkpatrick, on account of Tempe and Flagstaff.

As well as Tucson and Sedona. It would be interesting to see how the Republican candidate for governor did in these districts.

[KCDem]

It loves freedom.

[AggregateDemand]

Have you looked at the economics of irrigation in California? They already are panhandlers

Compared to Redwood rainforest-dwellers, maybe, but not compared to coastal residents in SoCal. Despite the drought, the Santa Fe Irrigation District in Northern County, where my parents live, is consuming almost 600 gallons per capita per day.

A farmer can feed a city with that kind of water, but a family of four in San Diego can't keep their geraniums alive or their pools full with less than 2,400 gallons a day.

[Citizen Hats]

Have you looked at the economics of irrigation in California? They already are panhandlers

Compared to Redwood rainforest-dwellers, maybe, but not compared to coastal residents in SoCal. Despite the drought, the Santa Fe Irrigation District in Northern County, where my parents live, is consuming almost 600 gallons per capita per day.

A farmer can feed a city with that kind of water, but a family of four in San Diego can't keep their geraniums alive or their pools full with less than 2,400 gallons a day.

A lot of the areas of the central valley have never even paid back there water bonds, like the Westlands, and rely on expensive state and federal capital funding to be even remotely profitable

[justfollowingtheelections]

I have spent quite a bit of time in all 3 west coast states and they're a different country in pretty much every way

[Rockefeller GOP]

It loves freedom.

I like freedom!