If a Supreme Court justice retires or dies in the next two years…..

[morgieb]

If it's Ginsburg or Breyer, as long as he or she is qualified the Republicans will probably confirm them relucantly.

If it's Kennedy or Scalia though....that's when it becomes a clusterf**k. Even a centrist may not pass, particularly if they are replacing the latter.

[morgieb]

If there is a vacancy (or even just a recusal for that matter) what happens in the case of a 4-4 split? Just for the sake of argument, say the issue is the blockbuster national gay marriage case making its way up the ranks. What happens?

The lower court ruling stands.

And if the lower court ruling is split?

[morgieb]

Wouldn't Republicans be concerned with the risk of Clinton taking the presidency in 2016 and them losing the senate at the same time?

Not really. They can, in theory, just filibuster forever, but they know that, in reality, they can force Obama to nominate whoever they want.

46 Dems +Collins+Graham+Murkowski+Kirk (out of self-preservation) = confirmation for any center-left nominee.

Um, except for that pesky filibuster.

I thought that got abolished for judicial nominations?