Nigeria General Election - March 28, 2015

[politicus]

Buhari ahead by a 2:1 ratio with 9,4 mio. counted:

TOTAL VOTES

States: 26
LGAs: 294
Total votes processed: 9,389,460
Buhari (APC): 6,317,366
Jonathan (PDP): 3,072,094

[politicus]

Provincial vote tally so far:

State                           Buhari (APC)       Jonathan (PDP)
Adamawa State    28000                     33966
Bauchi State           135588                     7652
Borno State             42612                       3698
Delta State               2457                         89990
Ebonyi State           9319                         159614
Edo State                  78501                      124827
Ekiti State                115791                     176466
Enugu State            1539                         73584
FCT                              68192                     57357
Gombe State           74976                     1076
Imo State                  57756                      193665
Jigawa State            331445                   43872
Kaduna State         929617                   257036
Kano State              1034176                 118064
Katsina State         637074                   5025
Kogi State                109827                   84505
Kwara State             291781                   129315
Lagos State              497834                  335108
Nasarawa State     46855                     41241
Niger State              58239                     9436
Ogun State              246488                  165649
Ondo State              299889                 251368
Osun State              5382527                259918
Oyo State                 528311                   303376
Plateau State          99502                   278611
Sokoto State           254698                 54934



http://www.naij.com/411554-2015-presidential-election-results-so-far.html

[Simfan34]

Early results have Buhari dominating in the Southwest... if this holds it's all over for Jonathan.

http://www.news24.com.ng/Elections/Results#year=2015

[politicus]

Worth remembering is that ACN, which is part of Buharis coalition is mainly based in the SW and heirs to the left wing tradition of the region. A lot of prominent people from that region has endorsed Buhari.

Even Nobel lauterate Wole Soyinka (who is from Ogun in the SW) has indirectly supported Buhari.

[Boston Bread]

Good news if Buhari wins, I think? (he's on the center-left and not Goodluck Jonathan)
Hopefully he does a better job at combating Boko Haram.
I also don't think I've ever seen a more polarized map.

[politicus]

Good news if Buhari wins, I think? (he's on the center-left and not Goodluck Jonathan)
Hopefully he does a better job at combating Boko Haram.
I also don't think I've ever seen a more polarized map.

More like an alliance between fascists and progressives (= two brands of economic nationalists) vs. conservative neo-liberals. Buhari is an (old school Italian) fascist if you want to compare him to a Western ideology.

(and then Nigerian politics is not really about ideology)

[Boston Bread]

True, when coalitions are based more on cultural identity than anything else, a lot of conflicting beliefs can be mixed into one coalition since ideology isn't the most important unifying cause.

My impression is that Jonathan has been incompetent lately, so I'll still tepidly support Buhari as the lesser evil.

[Simfan34]

Trying to apply labels of "left" and "right" is a fools errand in most of Africa and bound to end in misery in Nigeria. Both parties are ideologically amorphous, it's more fruitful to look at ethnic backing. As you've both said.

But to call Buhari center-left? That seems quite the non sequitur for an ex-military ruler running on a soft authoritarian platform of law and order and nostalgia for the idea of his "War on Indiscipline".

[Simfan34]

(but it is missing at least one that is shown there)

Follow up on this aside:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Jesus. If they have to rig the result in Rivers State, the heart of the Niger Delta, it must be really bad.

What program did you use to make that map? ArcGIS I assume? The vote totals, however, are lower than those given on my source (they are from Sunday night).

[Simfan34]

Also I call the map of results by LGA.

[politicus]

True, when coalitions are based more on cultural identity than anything else, a lot of conflicting beliefs can be mixed into one coalition since ideology isn't the most important unifying cause.

My impression is that Jonathan has been incompetent lately, so I'll still tepidly support Buhari as the lesser evil.

Johnathan was incomptent right from the start,

[Simfan34]

Well the INEC has released the official results of eight states; at 8pm local time (half an hour from now) they will release more results, they say 18 more states have finished counting and are in the process of sending their results:

Nasarawa State:

Buhari: 236,838

Jonathan: 273,460

Invalid votes: 10,094

Total votes: 521,641

Oyo State

Buhari: 528,620

Jonathan: 303,376

Invalid votes: 47,254

Total votes: 920,066

Federal Capital Territory (Abuja)

Buhari: 146,399

Jonathan: 157,195

Invalid votes: 9,210

Total votes: 316,015

Ondo State

Buhari: 299,889

Jonathan: 251,368

Invalid votes: 21,379

Total votes: 582,435

Osun State

Buhari: 383,603

Jonathan: 249,927

Invalid votes: 20,758

Total votes: 663,373

Kogi State

Buhari: 264,851

Jonathan: 149,987

Invalid votes: ???

Total votes: ???

Enugu State

Buhari: 14,157

Jonathan: 553,003

Invalid votes: 12,459

Total votes: 585,632

Ogun State

Buhari: 308,290

Jonathan: 207,950

Invalid votes: 26,441

Total votes: 559,631

Ekiti State

Buhari: 120,331

Jonathan: 176,466

Invalid votes: 8,754

Total votes: 309,445

http://www.naij.com/412728-nigeria-decided-jega-announces-official-results.html

[politicus]

Trying to apply labels of "left" and "right" is a fools errand in most of Africa and bound to end in misery in Nigeria. Both parties are ideologically amorphous, it's more fruitful to look at ethnic backing. As you've both said.

But to call Buhari center-left? That seems quite the non sequitur for an ex-military ruler running on a soft authoritarian platform of law and order and nostalgia for the idea of his "War on Indiscipline".

To elabourate a bit:

While it is obviously pointless (and absurd) to call Buhari himself center-left it is also a fact that whatever exists of left wing in Nigeria seems to back him as the lesser evil and two of the parties in his coalition have some left wing roots.

Left/right is completely irrelevant in the north, but parts of the south have a left wing tradition (mostly in the SW).

Nigerian trade unions are weak, but they do exist with 4 mio. members and have strength in some sectors. How their Labour party is doing in the parliamentarian election will also be interesting.

[Simfan34]

That could be true, but it's essentially meaningless. A "Southwestern tradition of leftism" is not that much more than a "Yoruba political tradition". He's not drawing support from the region because people see him as some leftist or because they are leftists.

It's more than just ethnic politics (which would perhaps be equally simplistic), yes-- there are in many cases real issue-based politics-- but this "Western Ukraine is fiscally conservative while Eastern Ukraine is socially conservative" tendency to put people into ideological boxes is just not worthwhile. 

The fortunes of the Labour Party could be worth looking at somewhat, although I suspect Buhari would try to tighten the screws on them if they got anywhere.

Meanwhile, big news: Buhari wins Lagos, but we're still waiting for more results.

Jonathan meanwhile is calling for the invalidation of results in no fewer than eight states.

[Simfan34]

Buhari dominates in Kano, with 1,903,999 votes to 215,779 for Jonathan. Same story for Jigawa albeit far less dramatically, with 885,988 votes for Buhari and 142,904 for Jonathan.

(As per the INEC Twitter feed. Their website is useless as it has no results)

EDIT: Even sillier in Katsina, where Buhari got 1,345,441 to a mere 98,937 for Jonathan.

[politicus]

Buhari still ahead with total votes for 18 states in (Ondo, Osun, Kogi, Enugu, Ogun, Ekiti, Oyo, Nassarawa, Kano, Jigawa, Katsina, Kwara, Kaduna, Anambra, Abia, Akwa Ibom, Imo, Plateau) + FCT Abuja:

    Goodluck Jonathan / Namadi Sambo (41.56%, 6,488,210)
    Muhammadu Buhari / Yemi Osinbajo (54.58%, 8,520,436)

    Ambrose Albert / Haruna Shaba (0.02%, 3,711)
    Oluremi Sonaiya / Saidu Bobboi (0.03%, 5,268)
    Ganiyu Galadima / Ojengbede Farida (0.16%, 24,238)
    Chekwas Okorie / Bello Umar (0.07%, 10,808)
    Tunde Anifowoshe-Kelani / Paul Ishaka Ofomile (0.09%, 13,734)
    Rafiu Salau / Clinton Cliff Akuchie (0.13%, 20,478)
    Godson Okoye / Haruna Adamu (0.04%, 5,810)
    Martin Onovo / Ibrahim Mohammed (0.08%, 12,768)
    Mani Ibrahim Ahmad / Obianuju Murphy-Uzohue (0.11%, 16,733)
    Ayeni Adebayo / Anthony Ologbosere (0.19%, 29,867)
    Sam Eke / Hassana Hassan (0.14%, 21,227)
    Allagoa Chinedu / Arabamhen Mary (0.10%, 14,940)
    Invalid votes (2.70%, 422,164 )

[politicus]

That could be true, but it's essentially meaningless. A "Southwestern tradition of leftism" is not that much more than a "Yoruba political tradition". He's not drawing support from the region because people see him as some leftist or because they are leftists.

It's more than just ethnic politics (which would perhaps be equally simplistic), yes-- there are in many cases real issue-based politics-- but this "Western Ukraine is fiscally conservative while Eastern Ukraine is socially conservative" tendency to put people into ideological boxes is just not worthwhile.  

Nobody sees Buhari as leftist Bit of a strawman.

Ideology is certainly not what drives Nigerian politics and African politics is fundamentally populist/nationalist in rhetoric (in the cases where it is simply tribalist or etnoreligious). Successful leftism in Africa post-Cold War has primarily been connected to trade union mobilization/parties based on unions. Which would be the (so far distant third) Labour in Nigeria.

That said the Yoruba tradition dating back to the Action Group in the 50s/60s and revived by the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) in 1979-83 was  socialist/leftist in outlook and language and it influences at least the political rhetoric of the region. The fact that Socialism was used to rally people in some parts of the country and never in others can not be totally disregarded. Language influence perception. ACN has some of its roots in this tradition.

The APGA faction that is part of APC has also leftist roots and while they are primarily an Igbo nationalist party it is again an Igbo tradition using leftist rhetoric.

Those southern traditions influenced by leftist rhetoric match better with Buhari's economic nationalism than traditions not influenced by it.  

[Famous Mortimer]

The All Progressive Congress is apparently now a probationary member of the Socialist International (which apparently still exists):

http://www.socialistinternational.org/viewArticle.cfm?ArticleID=2326

Also, Olusegun Obasanjo public renounced the People's Democratic Party and was has been unofficially supportive of Buhari.

[politicus]

The All Progressive Congress is apparently now a probationary member of the Socialist International (which apparently still exists):

http://www.socialistinternational.org/viewArticle.cfm?ArticleID=2326

LOL

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah:

Good piece on Olusegun  Obasanjo. Ex dictator and PDP godfather turned major league troll and possible kingmaker.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201412200225.html

"Obasanjo is enjoying himself. He continues to jab at Jonathan, breakfast, lunch and dinner. Don't believe anyone who tells you that Aso Rock is not scared. If they are not scared, then they are stupid. Obasanjo will not throw an uppercut or a left hook. He jabs and jabs and jabs. The effect is slow burn. It was Obasanjo that constructed the Jonathan phenomenon and he appears hell bent on deconstructing it."

[politicus]

It seems fairly certain by now that Buhari has won. It is "just" a matter of whether Johnathan and PDP will accept it.

[Simfan34]

Hilariousness ensues as officer declaring contested Rivers State numbers complains about flashlight and says he'd prefer to read handwritten numbers. Jega (INEC chief) tells him to get on with it and so he says

Jonathan:
1,487,075

Buhari:
69,288

So Goodluck gets nearly as many votes in Rivers (pop 6 mil) as were cast between the two of them in Lagos (pop 21 mil).

[Antonio the Sixth]

It seems fairly certain by now that Buhari has won. It is "just" a matter of whether Johnathan and PDP will accept it.

When will official results be proclaimed?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What would have happened if no candidate got over 25% in 27 States?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So farewell (probably?) to the worst (more or less) democratically elected leader in the world. And hello to someone who will presumably try his hardest to keep that title in Nigeria.

[Simfan34]

Sometime this evening.