Nigeria General Election - March 28, 2015

[ag]

What would have happened if no candidate got over 25% in 27 States?

Run-off.

[Simfan34]

What would have happened if no candidate got over 25% in 27 States?

They hold a "run-off".

[Antonio the Sixth]

I see. I understand the purpose, but it's a bit silly to hold a runoff if the top two candidates already total >95% of the vote. Besides, a runoff doesn't guarantee that the winner meets the 25%/27 rule anyway.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

RIP fellow biologist

[Storebought]

Even thought I understand why and how Jonathan had to go (Nigeria's economy and "official" standard of living may have grown during his tenure, but the institutional decay was obvious, and that was before Boko Haram), it is still sad to see him to lose to someone as repulsive as Muhammadu Buhari as looks to be the case so far.

Jonathan was one of the handful of African heads of state who wasn't a dictator, or a general or warlord, or a godfather (clientelism is a real big thing in Nigeria), or who otherwise felt entitled to rule on the basis of his father's name or tribe. I suppose, in context, it is because Jonathan could never have been a godfather or a strongman that he came to be seen as weak not just by voters, but by the military and civil institutions as well. He was a zoology professor who came into office by accident, and in the end was overwhelmed by it.

You can't regret his loss (I know no one else on this thread is), but Nigeria failing under his civilian leadership and returning to military government in all but name is dispiriting.

[Simfan34]

Well maybe this is what did it:

[Simfan34]

Here's a good place to get news- James Schneider of the New African.

[Simfan34]

Final results will not come for another two hours as we late for the last state to come in... Borno, I think.
But we know who's going to win in Borno. Buhari has won.

Watch live: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANM-dq5USTc

[Simfan34]

BBC: Jonathan has called Muhammadu Buhari to concede and to congratulate him

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Is there any info on how the House and Senate are shaping up? Is the APC sweeping there too?

[Simfan34]

Is there any info on how the House and Senate are shaping up? Is the APC sweeping there too?

That's what I've read. The link I posted earlier with the map also has legislative results.

[Simfan34]

Disappointing results. I just hope that Nigeria finds a way to unite and defeat Boko Haram.

Well it certainly wasn't happening under Jonathan.

[politicus]

Disappointing results. I just hope that Nigeria finds a way to unite and defeat Boko Haram.

Well it certainly wasn't happening under Jonathan.

Oh, I agree with you, Jonathan was incompetent in many ways. It just seems that neither candidate would be a good leader, considering Buhari's Past.

When it comes to handling Boko Haram Buhari will most likely be an improvement (as Johnathan was a disaster). Buhari is a northerner and has a military background. Both things will be an advantage + he is a man of action.

[Simfan34]

I think this poster sums up Buhari's campaign quite nicely:

[politicus]

Final result:

    Goodluck Jonathan / Namadi Sambo (43.67%, 12,853,162)
    Muhammadu Buhari / Yemi Osinbajo (52.41%, 15,424,921)

    Ambrose Albert / Haruna Shaba (0.03%, 7,435)
    Oluremi Sonaiya / Saidu Bobboi (0.04%, 13,076)
    Ganiyu Galadima / Ojengbede Farida (0.14%, 40,311)
    Chekwas Okorie / Bello Umar (0.06%, 18,220)
    Tunde Anifowoshe-Kelani / Paul Ishaka Ofomile (0.08%, 22,125)
    Rafiu Salau / Clinton Cliff Akuchie (0.10%, 30,673)
    Godson Okoye / Haruna Adamu (0.03%, 9,208)
    Martin Onovo / Ibrahim Mohammed (0.08%, 24,455)
    Mani Ibrahim Ahmad / Obianuju Murphy-Uzohue (0.10%, 29,666)
    Ayeni Adebayo / Anthony Ologbosere (0.18%, 53,537)
    Sam Eke / Hassana Hassan (0.12%, 36,300)
    Allagoa Chinedu / Arabamhen Mary (0.08%, 24,475)
    Invalid votes (2.87%, 844,519)

The map:

[Foucaulf]

BBC: Jonathan has called Muhammadu Buhari to concede and to congratulate him

For the longest time I thought the headline said "has called on," in which case Jonathan was clearly delusional.

People who know more than me: Nigeria doesn't have anything close to a strongman tradition, right? Their republics and juntas have seemed very shaky, and I want to say that sectarianism wouldn't allow such a consolidation to whoever holds nominal power.

[Famous Mortimer]

Did Buhari do ANY better in Igbo areas considering the Igbo party that merged into the APC?

[Simfan34]

Ah, and who made the map... sorry for the lack of shading.

Hopefully will manage to do that, and an LGA level one over the weekend.

[politicus]

Ah, and who made the map... sorry for the lack of shading.

Hopefully will manage to do that, and an LGA level one over the weekend.

If it is yours why post it on Wikipedia BEFORE Atlas?

[politicus]

Did Buhari do ANY better in Igbo areas considering the Igbo party that merged into the APC?

It was half a party and he did better basically everywhere.

SE was extreme in 2011:

Johnathan 4,985,246
Buhari 20,335
Ribadu 25,517
Shekarau 20,357



This time he got 133,253 in Imo alone (98% Igbo state)
14,157 in Enugu
17,296 in Anambra
13,394 in Abia
19,518 in Ebonyi

So about ten times as many votes in the SE.

It was a minority of APGA under Imo State Governor Chief Rochas Okorocha that merged into APC. So the effect outside Imo has been much lower.

[politicus]

Despite Johnathans concession PDP has rejected the results the presidential election and will challenge the results at the election tribunal.

http://www.news24.com.ng/Elections/News/PDP-to-challenge-Buharis-victory-20150401

[politicus]

APC has won a majority in the Senate. Results are yet to be finalized, but after the first count the status is:

Senate:

APC 62
PDP 47
Others nil

EDIT:

Naij has an alternative count with 64 ACP, 45 PDP and 1 Labour (which is 110 and there are 109 AFAIK). Anyway, solid APC win and PDP has apparently almost been wiped out in the north. 35 of their seats are won in the south.

http://www.naij.com/413769-apc-wins-64-seats-in-the-senate-now-has-majority-status.html

[politicus]

No real credible total count for HoR and APC has demanded a new election in Rivers State because of massive fraud. But APC looks to have gained a majority in the lower chamber as well.

[politicus]

Regarding the Senate election things are still a bit unclear. The 64-45-1 breakdown is still widely quoted, but Nigerians commenting on it also questions why there should suddenly be 110 senators..

Another count has 61-48:


South West:

APC 13
PDP 5 (1 in Ogun, 1 in Ondo, 3 in Ekiti);


South East:

PDP: 15

South South:

APC 1 (Edo North)
PDP 17


North Central:

APC 13
PDP 5

North East:

APC 14
PDP 4

North West:

APC 20
PDP 1
FCT-PDP 1

Senate President David Mark (PDP) lost reelection. ACP will not get a 73 seat supermajority.

[politicus]

Some good things about this election according to Nigerian observers:

- Despite some technical glitches, pockets of violence and the inevitable political sabre-rattling the conduct of the election was "extremely successful by African standards"

- The election was not as ethnically and religiously polarised as many feared. Jonathan won substantial votes in some of the Muslim north-eastern states, as did Buhari in majority Christian Edo and in the South-West with its mixture of Christians and Muslims (but then again maybe the SW vote was religiously polarized..).

- The use of electronic voter cards enabled the monitoring of potential rigging activities. An updated voter register allowed for the weeding out of more than five million unqualified or phantom voters.

- The much criticised six week postponement of the election allowed INEC to better prepare and fine-tune election logistics. If the elections were to have proceeded as originally scheduled, the logistical challenges would have been more severe.

They also stress that Jonathan deserves credit for encouraging the introduction of technological safeguards for elections and by conceding defeat swiftly and gracefully, his is likely to be seen by future generations as "one of the defining contributions to the progress of Nigerian democracy".