Nigeria General Election - March 28, 2015

[politicus]

Nigeria will be electing a President and President and National Assembly on Valentine's Day 2015.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigerian_general_election,_2015#National_Assembly

This is an excellent pre-election analysis of the presidential race:

http://allafrica.com/stories/201411070362.html

- In order to win the Presidency in 2015, the successful party will have to control the majority of Nigeria's 36 state Governorships.

- In the 2015 elections half of the State Governors will have completed their maximum two terms, so state-level elections are likely to be extremely competitive across the country.

- Of the 28 governorship elections taking place, 18 states (or two-thirds) will have vacant seats. 10 of these 18 states have 40.9% of all registered voters.

- This numerical analysis indicates both the PDP and APC could each secure 17 states in Governorship elections.

- To win, a Presidential candidate needs an overall majority and at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the states (24 states). On current indications, if President Goodluck Jonathan runs as PDP candidate he is likely to get an overall majority. However, he may not automatically get the necessary one-quarter of the vote in two-thirds of states and the FCT.

- Therefore if voting patterns are similar to 2011 a run-off election situation would be likely. This would be a historic first under Nigeria's present electoral system.

However, this run-off outcome is likely to be determined by the choice of candidates put up by the main APC opposition party and the issue of North-South 'zoning'.

- It is difficult to predict the outcome of this run-off. If it does not favour an outright win for the PDP, it may further weaken its chances at the subsequent gubernatorial elections given that half of the seats are vacant.

2011's results are only a useful guide to 2015 if conditions stay the same, including INEC's conduct in voter registration and election management.

- Therefore, with high incentives for many actors to rig, it will be important for stakeholders in democratic consolidation to focus on issues such as registration and collation, which are likely to be hot in all states.

[politicus]

President

Both the major parties (well, one of them is a coalition) has held primaries on December 10, so we now know who is going to the two main contenders:

President Goodluck Jonathan (in office since 2010) ran unopposed in the ruling conservative People's Democratic Party (PDP) primaries and received the nomination of the party. PDP has dominated Nigerian politics since the return of democracy in 1999 and is a broad alliance of Christian and Muslim conservatives.  They have an unwritten rule that the party's presidential candidacy shall alternate between Muslim northerners and Christian southerners, so the reelection of Christian Johnathan has led to mass defections, not helped by Johnathans general conflict with the Parliament, where some members are trying to impeach him for failing to protect the country against Boko Haram (and corruption).

Most of the opposition has united in the All Progressive's Congress. An alliance of four parties:  Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP), All Progressive's Grand Alliance (APGA). Representing left wingers, liberals, economic nationalists and people tired of PDP.

Its primaries were won by former military dictator Muhammadu Buhari (CPC), who defeated Kano Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso (ex PDP), former Vice President Atiku Abubakar (ex PDP), Imo Governor Rochas Okorocha (APGA) and newspaper publisher Sam Nda Isaiah (joke candidate, who got 0.1%).

I will write a profile of the two candidates later, but a Christian southerner vs. a Muslim northerner.


Parliament

It can be difficult to estimate relative strength since members cross the floor frequently, but a rough estimate:

National Assembly (360)

PDP 160-170
APC 170-180
Others c 20

Senate (109)

APC c. 55
PDP c. 50
Others c 5

The two coalitions are expected to share the parliamentary seats between them, but there are no reliable poll to my knowledge. It is the first election with a united opposition and APC is popular in the growing middle class, so they do well in the few polls conducted, but whether the broad masses will support them is unknown. They have a big chunk of their current seats from PDP defectors and Indies joining, so its uncertain how well they will do in an election.

[politicus]

ACN is (broadly) liberal and APGA is a leftist party. CPC is "progressive" on paper (even quoting John Rawls in their manifesto..), but a Buhari tool. Buhari is primarily a nationalist, also an economic nationalist which can be interpreted both as fascist and as "leftist", at least he is critical of global capitalism and its local clients.

Like Juan Peron you can label Buhari a fascist or an authoritarian leftist populist. It depends how you place those types.

PDP has pursued a consistently neo-liberal economic policy and is SoCon (some of their governors have also implemented Sharia, all though just for Muslims). It actually seems pretty consistent for an African party - sort of a (corrupt) African, half Muslim version of US Southern Republicans.

Ideological labels aint worth much in a country like Nigeria, but at least on paper APC with all its strange bedfellows unitary staters/federalists, "fascists"/liberals-progs is the anti-neoliberal option and it has the genuine progressives. So it must be the more "leftist" of the two blocs.

[politicus]

This would have been far more interesting had the APC instead nominated Babatunde Fashola (Governor of Lagos State), who now appears poised to be Buhari's running mate. Fashola is a Yoruba and thus obviously a Southerner, but Muslim. He also does not to be completely terrible; among other things, the state government managed to prevent Ebola from spreading (which genuinely surprised me- I thought the s--t had really hit the fan when I heard it had spread to Lagos).

Any idea why he didn't ran? ACN was one of the two parties in the alliance without their own candidate in the primary.

[politicus]

VP Namadi Sambo will stay on as Johnathans running mate. Its still open between 4-5 guys who will be Buhari's:

http://allafrica.com/stories/201412120407.html

ANPP, Buhari's party and the main party in the opposition alliance. It would be a stretch to say they were actually a left party (more technocratic neo-liberals) but they were relative to the ANPP's explicit conservatism.

Also, the ANPP is much more enthusiastic on Sharia law. So on social issues at least, there is no doubt as to who is more right-wing.

Buhari actually left ANPP in 2010 for CPC, the "lefty" part of his coalition (not that it matters much regarding his views - though perhaps it influences his rhetoric).

I do not think ANPP is the biggest part of APC. If you look at the 2011 elections they show them as the third strongest.

In the Presidential election their guy got clobbered and was only third among the APC parties:

Goodluck Jonathan  (PDP) 58.9%
---------------------------------
Muhammadu Buhari  (CPC) 32.0%
Nuhu Ribadu (ACN) 5.4%
Ibrahim Shekarau (ANPP) 2.4%

In the National Assembly elections it was:

House of Representatives

Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)    202    
----------------------------------------

Four APC parties (132):
         
Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN)    66             
Congress for Progressive Change (CPC)    35             
All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP)    25                         
All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA)    6

So the ANPP finished third among them with less than half the strenght of ACN and ACN got more seats than the two Buhari-affiliated parties.

Others (26):

Labour Party (LP) 8             
Accord Party  (AP  5             
Democratic People's Party (DPP) 2             
People's Party of Nigeria (PPN)  2             
People's Democratic Party (PD)  1
Independents 8

Senate

People's Democratic Party (PDP)    71

Four APC parties (33):   
         
Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN)    18
Congress for Progressive Change (CPC)    7                
All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP)    7
All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA)    1             
   
Others (5):   

Labour Party  4                   
Democratic People's Party (DPP)    1

All in all it seems ACN contributed most of the electoral strength, and Buhari brought in CPC as his personal tool with its more "progressive" profile. ANPP seems like the weakest of the three major players in the alliance.

[politicus]

Politics and parties

There are 26 registered parties in Nigeria, but this includes the four partners in the APC alliance, so in reality 22. Most are quite small. Parties are by law required to have branches in 2/3 of Nigeria's 36 states to avoid ethnic parties and sectarian Muslim or Christian parties - Nigeria is roughly equally divided between Muslims (50%), mainly in the North and SW and Christians (48,5%) in the South  +Central (these numbers are - like any other stats regarding Nigeria - disputed). So in principle all parties are secular and national (which doesn't prevent some of them from supporting Sharia or having a regional bias).

Nigerian politics is - like in all poor countries - clientilistic and personalistic, but it is possible to discern some ideological tendencies that act as point of identification and to some extent influence policies.

Nigeria was mostly under military rule prior to 1998/99, but modern Nigerian politics has links back to the democratic politics in the immediate post-colonial period 1960-63, the First Republic 1963-66 and Second Republic 1979-83 and they recycle some of their old military rulers as political candidates.

People's Democratic Party (PDP) was founded when democracy was reestablished in 1998 as a broad coalition of Muslim and Christian technocrats and elite groups. It won the first presidential election in 1999 with former military dictator Obasanjo (1999-2007) and has won all national elections since, but with diminishing support. Its economic policies are neo-liberal with privatisation, tax cuts and deregulation, its socially conservative and has implemented anti-gay legislation + has a moderate hero position on Sharia, accepting it for Muslims only in the northern states. The party supports the current 50/50 division of oil profits between states and the federal government. Has implemented a rudimentary national health service, but not big on public welfare.

All Progressives Congress (APC) was formed in 2013 as an alliance of the three most important opposition parties + a faction of a small leftist Igbo party. It is a very heterogeneous group and functions more like the anti-PDP than a coherent alternative. Generally more economically nationalist than PDP and more focused on creating better public welfare, has some federalist states (oil) rights elements.

a) The biggest of the APC founders is the Social Liberal (in the European sense) and soft federalist Action Congres of Nigeria (ACN) founded in 2006 as a merger of several progressive parties with a party formed by disgruntled PDP members. It has its basis in Western and Central Nigeria and ties back to the strong Social Democratic tradition in Western Nigeria in the late colonial/early independence era and the 1979-83 democratic interval.

b) All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) is a both socially and economically Conservative party founded in 1998 as the All Peoples Party by a number of patriotic political associations from Central and Northern Nigeria supported by the regime of military dictator Sani Abacha, APP cooperated with a progressive party to field a candidate against PDP in 1999 and split afterwards with the more right wing members mainly from the far north continuing as ANPP and fielding ex dictator Muhammadu Buhari as candidate in 2003 and 2007. Buhari left the party in 2010 together with his The Buhari Oganization and the party lost 60% of its seats in 2011. Now mainly a regional party today with seven governors in the far north. Supports a strong union in principle, but also state rights to implement Sharia.

c) Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) was founded in 2009 by populist and economically nationalist The Buhari Organization (TBO) founded in 2006 as an internal power base for Buhari. After Buhari lost in 2007 ANPP decided to cross him and join PDP in a government of national unity leading to intense friction, so the Buhari loyalists left in 2009 followed by Buhari himself in 2010 once CPC was registrered. CPC has its basis in the North. It claims to be a Liberal party (refers to John Rawls in their manifesto...)  and has a (ridiculously) progressive platform supporting workers rights and social welfare for the poor and individual liberty. Its federalist and wants to devolve power to states and local government. Buharis switch from arch-conservative ANPP to "progressive" CPC is pretty strange and not exactly credible, but federalism, populism and economic nationalism ("Nigeria First") seems to be consistent elements in his post-1999 politics.

d) All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) is a leftist party founded in 2003 by former Biafra rebel leader Chukwuemeka Ojukwu. After his death in 2011 it has been divided and a faction under Imo Governor Rochas Okorocha joined the APC in 2013, while the party's only other governor keeps APGA alive. It is in reality an Igbo party with token representation elsewhere to get registered and (therefore) federalist (but Christian = anti-Sharia). Okorocha is chairman of the Progressive Governors Association, organizing all opposition governors.

The Labour Party is the only third party with any potential. It is a Social Democratic party founded in 2002 by the 4 mio. strong Nigeria Labour Congress to promote workers right, welfare and social justice, but despite its union ties it is not well organized. It has a dozen MPs and Senators and runs some municipalities. Lost its only Governor in October when he deserted to PDP.

[politicus]

I totally forgot Buhari had left the ANPP but I remember it now. I believe it had something to do with him stupidly claiming the election had been rigged against him. The ANPP didn't want anything to do with his ridiculous demagoguery. They tried to act like a respectable party and accepted the results instead. Of course they were rewarded by losing almost all their votes to Buhari's new party.

Well... not quite.

From Wiki: "Election observers from the European Union described the elections as "the worst they had ever seen anywhere in the world", with "rampant vote rigging, violence, theft of ballot boxes and intimidation."

And it wasn't just accepting the result, but participating in a GNU with PDP and working with Yar'Adua.

[politicus]

Anyway, sad that the Nigerian opposition fails to come up with a better candidate than a 72 year old ex dictator, who is a three time loser. Gotta be one of the most pathetic presidential candidate selections by a major party anywhere in the world,

[politicus]

Muhammadu Buhari has chosen Professor Yemi Osinbajo as his running mate. Southerner, of course, and former AG for Lagos State 1999-2007 under Bola Tinubu. They are still close, so he is a sort of stand-in for him given that Tinubu can not be on the ticket as a Muslim. Apart from his law career Osinbajo is also a pastor at Olive Tree House of Prayers for All Nations in Banana Island for the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemi_Osibanjo

[politicus]

Good piece on Olusegun  Obasanjo. Ex dictator and PDP godfather turned major league troll and possible kingmaker.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201412200225.html

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Voting is postponed many places because their scanners to read the ballots don't work properly.

Seven dead so far. Not as bad as one could have feared.

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Kano:

General Buhari 1,903, 999
Goodluck Jonathan’s 215,779

Ondo:

Muhammadu Buhari and Goodluck Jonathan each won nine out of 18 local government areas. Since it is PDP controlled Johnathan was expected to win.

General Buhari 299,889
Goodluck Johnathan 251,368 votes.

The total number of eligible voters: 1,501, 549 
Total of valid votes cast: 561,056.

So low turnout.

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Buhari ahead by a 2:1 ratio with 9,4 mio. counted:

TOTAL VOTES

States: 26
LGAs: 294
Total votes processed: 9,389,460
Buhari (APC): 6,317,366
Jonathan (PDP): 3,072,094

[politicus]

Provincial vote tally so far:

State                           Buhari (APC)       Jonathan (PDP)
Adamawa State    28000                     33966
Bauchi State           135588                     7652
Borno State             42612                       3698
Delta State               2457                         89990
Ebonyi State           9319                         159614
Edo State                  78501                      124827
Ekiti State                115791                     176466
Enugu State            1539                         73584
FCT                              68192                     57357
Gombe State           74976                     1076
Imo State                  57756                      193665
Jigawa State            331445                   43872
Kaduna State         929617                   257036
Kano State              1034176                 118064
Katsina State         637074                   5025
Kogi State                109827                   84505
Kwara State             291781                   129315
Lagos State              497834                  335108
Nasarawa State     46855                     41241
Niger State              58239                     9436
Ogun State              246488                  165649
Ondo State              299889                 251368
Osun State              5382527                259918
Oyo State                 528311                   303376
Plateau State          99502                   278611
Sokoto State           254698                 54934



http://www.naij.com/411554-2015-presidential-election-results-so-far.html

[politicus]

Worth remembering is that ACN, which is part of Buharis coalition is mainly based in the SW and heirs to the left wing tradition of the region. A lot of prominent people from that region has endorsed Buhari.

Even Nobel lauterate Wole Soyinka (who is from Ogun in the SW) has indirectly supported Buhari.

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Good news if Buhari wins, I think? (he's on the center-left and not Goodluck Jonathan)
Hopefully he does a better job at combating Boko Haram.
I also don't think I've ever seen a more polarized map.

More like an alliance between fascists and progressives (= two brands of economic nationalists) vs. conservative neo-liberals. Buhari is an (old school Italian) fascist if you want to compare him to a Western ideology.

(and then Nigerian politics is not really about ideology)

[politicus]

True, when coalitions are based more on cultural identity than anything else, a lot of conflicting beliefs can be mixed into one coalition since ideology isn't the most important unifying cause.

My impression is that Jonathan has been incompetent lately, so I'll still tepidly support Buhari as the lesser evil.

Johnathan was incomptent right from the start,

[politicus]

Trying to apply labels of "left" and "right" is a fools errand in most of Africa and bound to end in misery in Nigeria. Both parties are ideologically amorphous, it's more fruitful to look at ethnic backing. As you've both said.

But to call Buhari center-left? That seems quite the non sequitur for an ex-military ruler running on a soft authoritarian platform of law and order and nostalgia for the idea of his "War on Indiscipline".

To elabourate a bit:

While it is obviously pointless (and absurd) to call Buhari himself center-left it is also a fact that whatever exists of left wing in Nigeria seems to back him as the lesser evil and two of the parties in his coalition have some left wing roots.

Left/right is completely irrelevant in the north, but parts of the south have a left wing tradition (mostly in the SW).

Nigerian trade unions are weak, but they do exist with 4 mio. members and have strength in some sectors. How their Labour party is doing in the parliamentarian election will also be interesting.

[politicus]

Buhari still ahead with total votes for 18 states in (Ondo, Osun, Kogi, Enugu, Ogun, Ekiti, Oyo, Nassarawa, Kano, Jigawa, Katsina, Kwara, Kaduna, Anambra, Abia, Akwa Ibom, Imo, Plateau) + FCT Abuja:

    Goodluck Jonathan / Namadi Sambo (41.56%, 6,488,210)
    Muhammadu Buhari / Yemi Osinbajo (54.58%, 8,520,436)

    Ambrose Albert / Haruna Shaba (0.02%, 3,711)
    Oluremi Sonaiya / Saidu Bobboi (0.03%, 5,268)
    Ganiyu Galadima / Ojengbede Farida (0.16%, 24,238)
    Chekwas Okorie / Bello Umar (0.07%, 10,808)
    Tunde Anifowoshe-Kelani / Paul Ishaka Ofomile (0.09%, 13,734)
    Rafiu Salau / Clinton Cliff Akuchie (0.13%, 20,478)
    Godson Okoye / Haruna Adamu (0.04%, 5,810)
    Martin Onovo / Ibrahim Mohammed (0.08%, 12,768)
    Mani Ibrahim Ahmad / Obianuju Murphy-Uzohue (0.11%, 16,733)
    Ayeni Adebayo / Anthony Ologbosere (0.19%, 29,867)
    Sam Eke / Hassana Hassan (0.14%, 21,227)
    Allagoa Chinedu / Arabamhen Mary (0.10%, 14,940)
    Invalid votes (2.70%, 422,164 )

[politicus]

That could be true, but it's essentially meaningless. A "Southwestern tradition of leftism" is not that much more than a "Yoruba political tradition". He's not drawing support from the region because people see him as some leftist or because they are leftists.

It's more than just ethnic politics (which would perhaps be equally simplistic), yes-- there are in many cases real issue-based politics-- but this "Western Ukraine is fiscally conservative while Eastern Ukraine is socially conservative" tendency to put people into ideological boxes is just not worthwhile.  

Nobody sees Buhari as leftist Bit of a strawman.

Ideology is certainly not what drives Nigerian politics and African politics is fundamentally populist/nationalist in rhetoric (in the cases where it is simply tribalist or etnoreligious). Successful leftism in Africa post-Cold War has primarily been connected to trade union mobilization/parties based on unions. Which would be the (so far distant third) Labour in Nigeria.

That said the Yoruba tradition dating back to the Action Group in the 50s/60s and revived by the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) in 1979-83 was  socialist/leftist in outlook and language and it influences at least the political rhetoric of the region. The fact that Socialism was used to rally people in some parts of the country and never in others can not be totally disregarded. Language influence perception. ACN has some of its roots in this tradition.

The APGA faction that is part of APC has also leftist roots and while they are primarily an Igbo nationalist party it is again an Igbo tradition using leftist rhetoric.

Those southern traditions influenced by leftist rhetoric match better with Buhari's economic nationalism than traditions not influenced by it.  

[politicus]

The All Progressive Congress is apparently now a probationary member of the Socialist International (which apparently still exists):

http://www.socialistinternational.org/viewArticle.cfm?ArticleID=2326

LOL

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah:

Good piece on Olusegun  Obasanjo. Ex dictator and PDP godfather turned major league troll and possible kingmaker.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201412200225.html

"Obasanjo is enjoying himself. He continues to jab at Jonathan, breakfast, lunch and dinner. Don't believe anyone who tells you that Aso Rock is not scared. If they are not scared, then they are stupid. Obasanjo will not throw an uppercut or a left hook. He jabs and jabs and jabs. The effect is slow burn. It was Obasanjo that constructed the Jonathan phenomenon and he appears hell bent on deconstructing it."

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It seems fairly certain by now that Buhari has won. It is "just" a matter of whether Johnathan and PDP will accept it.

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Disappointing results. I just hope that Nigeria finds a way to unite and defeat Boko Haram.

Well it certainly wasn't happening under Jonathan.

Oh, I agree with you, Jonathan was incompetent in many ways. It just seems that neither candidate would be a good leader, considering Buhari's Past.

When it comes to handling Boko Haram Buhari will most likely be an improvement (as Johnathan was a disaster). Buhari is a northerner and has a military background. Both things will be an advantage + he is a man of action.

[politicus]

Final result:

    Goodluck Jonathan / Namadi Sambo (43.67%, 12,853,162)
    Muhammadu Buhari / Yemi Osinbajo (52.41%, 15,424,921)

    Ambrose Albert / Haruna Shaba (0.03%, 7,435)
    Oluremi Sonaiya / Saidu Bobboi (0.04%, 13,076)
    Ganiyu Galadima / Ojengbede Farida (0.14%, 40,311)
    Chekwas Okorie / Bello Umar (0.06%, 18,220)
    Tunde Anifowoshe-Kelani / Paul Ishaka Ofomile (0.08%, 22,125)
    Rafiu Salau / Clinton Cliff Akuchie (0.10%, 30,673)
    Godson Okoye / Haruna Adamu (0.03%, 9,208)
    Martin Onovo / Ibrahim Mohammed (0.08%, 24,455)
    Mani Ibrahim Ahmad / Obianuju Murphy-Uzohue (0.10%, 29,666)
    Ayeni Adebayo / Anthony Ologbosere (0.18%, 53,537)
    Sam Eke / Hassana Hassan (0.12%, 36,300)
    Allagoa Chinedu / Arabamhen Mary (0.08%, 24,475)
    Invalid votes (2.87%, 844,519)

The map: