Crist Vs Scott election analysis

[jman123]

Looking at the Florida Governor election I noticed That Crist made strong inroads in central and Southern Florida. Miami Dade went overwhelmingly for Crist. It is very similar to the 2012 and 2008 elections in Florida.  With that in mind I am confused as to why Rick Scott still manage to squeak a win.

   Could it have been that Scott got a higher amount of the Hispanic vote than either Mccain and Romney in 2008 and 2012?

[Matty]

Pretty sure someone was saying that either Broward or Miami-Dade (can't remember which one) had woeful turnout which did Crist in.

[Miles]

The damn panhandle killed him:



(Swing from Sink/Scott to Crist/Scott)

[IceSpear]

The damn panhandle killed him:



(Swing from Sink/Scott to Crist/Scott)

Yeah, I figured. When the early returns came in it looked like Crist was on track for a narrow victory, then...

I'm so thankful I don't live in Florida. I was always thankful for that, but now more than ever...

[Person Man]

The damn panhandle killed him:



(Swing from Sink/Scott to Crist/Scott)

Yeah, I figured. When the early returns came in it looked like Crist was on track for a narrow victory, then...

I'm so thankful I don't live in Florida. I was always thankful for that, but now more than ever...

The way the election happened was...suspicious.

[jaichind]

Looking at exit polls in 2006 and 2010 with comparisons to 2014, it seems that Scott did worse with Latinos in 2014 and did better with AA.  In 2010 Scott did better with Whites and worse with women relative to 2014.  Crist not being a women like Sink hurt him relative to Sink with respect to the women vote but did gain ground with Whites.  Somehow Crist did a lot worse with AA and lost a narrow election.  So perhaps Crist not being see as a DINO hurt him with the core Dem vote (AAs) but helped in with the GOP base (Whites).

[Donerail]

The damn panhandle killed him:



(Swing from Sink/Scott to Crist/Scott)

Nah, Panhandle's irrelevant - it was low turnout in Palm Beach, Broward & Dade (perhaps amplified by the candidate's Cuba stance) that killed him.

[GaussLaw]

Looking at exit polls in 2006 and 2010 with comparisons to 2014, it seems that Scott did worse with Latinos in 2014 and did better with AA.  In 2010 Scott did better with Whites and worse with women relative to 2014.  Crist not being a women like Sink hurt him relative to Sink with respect to the women vote but did gain ground with Whites.  Somehow Crist did a lot worse with AA and lost a narrow election.  So perhaps Crist not being see as a DINO hurt him with the core Dem vote (AAs) but helped in with the GOP base (Whites).

A lot of Scott's ads had blacks in them......obviously they're in the minority but the fact that they're able to get multiple blacks in an ad for Scott in 2014 says something.  The GOP can get 20-25% of the African American male vote in a good election (the female vote is just about monolithically D though).

[sg0508]

As soon as we saw the voter turnout in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach, we all knew he had lost down south.  Like I said prior to the election, Democrats were not very fond of Charlie and I'm sure many down south stayed home.