PA-8: Fitzpatrick retiring

[RogueBeaver]

Honoring his term limits pledge. Resident Pennsylvanians, how long will the primary lineup be?

[Vega]

Likely very long. There are alot of Republicans who will want his seat, I'm sure.

Right now, though, I couldn't begin to speculate on who might run.

[IceSpear]

That's somewhat surprising. I expected the party to pressure him to break his pledge so the seat wasn't open in a presidential year.

[retromike22]

D+1!!!

[Keystone Phil]

It's a lock for Cawley. Next.

Likely very long. There are alot of Republicans who will want his seat, I'm sure.

Right now, though, I couldn't begin to speculate on who might run.

Wrong and wrong.

[Holmes]

A Republican actually honoring their term limit pledge? Crazy. Maybe Collins can learn something from him.

[Landslide Lyndon]

That's somewhat surprising. I expected the party to pressure him to break his pledge so the seat wasn't open in a presidential year.

Yeah, this is a quintessential swing district and with Clinton on top of the ticket Democrats have a good chance to retake it.

[Devils30]

Way too early to tell. But if hillary has a good night nationally she probably can flip this seat. Wonder if Murphy will run.

[politicallefty]

If he wants it, is there anything in the way of Patrick Murphy running for this seat?

[Lief 🗽]

D+1 (if we want to retake the House at least).

[Vega]

This is probably the most competitive PA U.S. House District, at least when it comes to PVI.

[publicunofficial]

Seems competitive on paper, but the GOP operation in Bucks County runs like a well-oiled machine.

Lean R until Democrats surprise me with a good candidate, or the GOP surprises me with a bad one.

[Keystone Phil]

Seems competitive on paper, but the GOP operation in Bucks County runs like a well-oiled machine.

Lean R until Democrats surprise me with a good candidate, or the GOP surprises me with a bad one.

Bingo especially with Cawley though we'll see Corbett mentioned negatively in everything against Cawley (unless Wolf is an early disaster...which is entirely possible).

This isn't a "quintessential swing district" anymore. Before redistricting, sure but Fitz got GOP areas of Montco and lost the very Dem Montco area as well as NE Philly parts. It'll be competitive but I wouldn't call this a coin flip.

[Vega]

Phil, do you have any ideas who the GOP might run?

[publicunofficial]

Seems competitive on paper, but the GOP operation in Bucks County runs like a well-oiled machine.

Lean R until Democrats surprise me with a good candidate, or the GOP surprises me with a bad one.

Bingo especially with Cawley though we'll see Corbett mentioned negatively in everything against Cawley (unless Wolf is an early disaster...which is entirely possible).

This isn't a "quintessential swing district" anymore. Before redistricting, sure but Fitz got GOP areas of Montco and lost the very Dem Montco area as well as NE Philly parts. It'll be competitive but I wouldn't call this a coin flip.

Agreed. The seat is Cawley's if he wants it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Phil, do you have any ideas who the GOP might run?

If Cawley doesn't run, are there any strong potential Democratic candidates (my guess is that Murphy's time has passed, unfortunately ).  I'd think there'd be at least one or two floating around (even in PA, we've still hypothetically got Dinniman).

[publicunofficial]

Phil, do you have any ideas who the GOP might run?

If Cawley doesn't run, are there any strong potential Democratic candidates (my guess is that Murphy's time has passed, unfortunately ).  I'd think there'd be at least one or two floating around (even in PA, we've still hypothetically got Dinniman).

I'm not even sure if Murphy still lives in the district.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Jim Cawley starts out there favorite. After 2012, I think Murphy is pretty much a spent force.

Also, hasn't Bucks been trending R relative to state? It used to be right in line with the state, but now it seems to have become slightly more Republican. I think Romney did better than he did statewide and I think Corbett did as well.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Corbett 45-54 PA
        48-52 Bucks  5% more R 

Romney 47-52         
       49-50 Bucks   4% more R

Corbett 54-45 PA
        55-45 Bucks  1% more R

McCain 44-54 PA
       45-54        ~1% more R

Bush 48-51 PA        0% more R
     48-51 Bucks

Left out Rendell because his numbers across the SE were just crazy.

[morgieb]

Jim Cawley starts out there favorite. After 2012, I think Murphy is pretty much a spent force.

Also, hasn't Bucks been trending R relative to state? It used to be right in line with the state, but now it seems to have become slightly more Republican. I think Romney did better than he did statewide and I think Corbett did as well.

Fitzpatrick's district is the only Kerry/Romney district in the nation, so I think so yeah.

[publicunofficial]

Jim Cawley starts out there favorite. After 2012, I think Murphy is pretty much a spent force.

What do you mean? Murphy hasn't run for anything since he lost in Fitzpatrick in 2010.

[Vega]

Jim Cawley starts out there favorite. After 2012, I think Murphy is pretty much a spent force.

What do you mean? Murphy hasn't run for anything since he lost in Fitzpatrick in 2010.

He ran for AG in 2012.

[publicunofficial]

Jim Cawley starts out there favorite. After 2012, I think Murphy is pretty much a spent force.

What do you mean? Murphy hasn't run for anything since he lost in Fitzpatrick in 2010.

He ran for AG in 2012.

That he did, I forgot. Thanks.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, do you have any ideas who the GOP might run?

As I said in my first post, it's going to outgoing Lt. Governor Jim Cawley.

[KCDem]

Phil, do you have any ideas who the GOP might run?

As I said in my first post, it's going to outgoing Lt. Governor Jim Cawley.

Could Corbett's stink hurt him?