PA-8: Fitzpatrick retiring

[Vega]

Phil, do you have any ideas who the GOP might run?

As I said in my first post, it's going to outgoing Lt. Governor Jim Cawley.

Could Corbett's stink hurt him?

He got alot more votes in the Republican primary that Corbett did, if that's any indication.

[MarkUterus]

Wondeer who will run for the Dems. Perhaps Steve Santarsiero? Regardless, though, PA-08 should stay in GOP hands. Fitzpatrick won Bucks County in '06 of all years, Bucks County has trended right of late, and the accompanying slice of MontCo post-redistricting is bright red.

[IceSpear]

Wondeer who will run for the Dems. Perhaps Steve Santarsiero? Regardless, though, PA-08 should stay in GOP hands. Fitzpatrick won Bucks County in '06 of all years, Bucks County has trended right of late, and the accompanying slice of MontCo post-redistricting is bright red.

Because he was a popular incumbent.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, do you have any ideas who the GOP might run?

As I said in my first post, it's going to outgoing Lt. Governor Jim Cawley.

Could Corbett's stink hurt him?

Maybe a tiny bit but it won't sink him. Cawley is very well respected.

[memphis]

With a headline promising a Congressman who was honoring his term limit pledge, I was expecting the link to be an Onion article.

[MarkUterus]

Wondeer who will run for the Dems. Perhaps Steve Santarsiero? Regardless, though, PA-08 should stay in GOP hands. Fitzpatrick won Bucks County in '06 of all years, Bucks County has trended right of late, and the accompanying slice of MontCo post-redistricting is bright red.

Because he was a popular incumbent.

Yeah, and? We always run popular officeholders here in Southeastern PA. We'll see a Bucks County commissioner or a State Senator move up. They're going to be a de-facto incumbent from day 1.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Wondeer who will run for the Dems. Perhaps Steve Santarsiero? Regardless, though, PA-08 should stay in GOP hands. Fitzpatrick won Bucks County in '06 of all years, Bucks County has trended right of late, and the accompanying slice of MontCo post-redistricting is bright red.

Because he was a popular incumbent.

lol a one term incumbent who won his first election when his predecessor withdrew just before filing deadline, with him filing instead and leaving him to face a sacrificial lamb in a Kerry district.

Yes, Fitzpatrick is a solid candidate, but there was a limited incumbency advantage at best in 2006. More like the advantage an appointed Senator would have as opposed to the standard incumbency advantage.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Wondeer who will run for the Dems. Perhaps Steve Santarsiero? Regardless, though, PA-08 should stay in GOP hands. Fitzpatrick won Bucks County in '06 of all years, Bucks County has trended right of late, and the accompanying slice of MontCo post-redistricting is bright red.

Because he was a popular incumbent.

Yeah, and? We always run popular officeholders here in Southeastern PA. We'll see a Bucks County commissioner or a State Senator move up. They're going to be a de-facto incumbent from day 1.

Plus the Republicans will be flooding Bucks country with every resource they have for Toomey's sake. I wouldn't even be surprised to see it vote Republican for President, though at the very least it will be close.

[Miles]

Cawley is taking a new job as CEO of the United Way. It seems much less likely he'd run.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Seems competitive on paper, but the GOP operation in Bucks County runs like a well-oiled machine.

Lean R until Democrats surprise me with a good candidate, or the GOP surprises me with a bad one.

Really?  Bucks County seems to have trended D in the past 20 years.

Anyway, maybe he'll consider running against Wolf or Casey in 2018.

[Miles]

Really?  Bucks County seems to have trended D in the past 20 years.

Obama in 2012 did worse than Kerry, Gore, and Clinton there.

[Keystone Phil]

Cawley is taking a new job as CEO of the United Way. It seems much less likely he'd run.

Yeah, I meant to point out that he's officially out for a 2016 run for anything and it's independent of the news today though that's obviously huge. Word is that he has plans for a few years down the line. It's one of two offices.

This will be a far more interesting race especially with Santasiero seemingly the front runner for the Dems. We're still favored because we'll have a decent candidate but not as clearly favored as with Cawley.