Scenario: The United Kingdom Votes to Secede from the European Union
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  Scenario: The United Kingdom Votes to Secede from the European Union
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Author Topic: Scenario: The United Kingdom Votes to Secede from the European Union  (Read 5042 times)
Frodo
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« on: November 08, 2014, 02:10:20 AM »
« edited: June 23, 2016, 10:16:20 PM by Frodo »

Let's suppose David Cameron's Conservatives retain control of Parliament in next year's elections, and that they go through with their promise on holding a 2016 referendum asking whether the UK should or should not leave the European Union.  And let us suppose also that the UK does vote to leave the EU -what happens next?  With the UK severing its ties to the EU, does that mean they will by default move closer to the United States, perhaps seeking to deepen their ties to their former colonies?  What's your best guess?  

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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2014, 03:05:05 AM »

A lot depends on how the divorce is handled.  Unless the EU proves totally spiteful, the UK most likely would rejoin the EFTA which is what it was in prior to joining what was then the EEC.  So it wouldn't be a total separation.  Whether the UK remains part of the EEA is less certain, as being part of the EEA and yet not part of the EU would seem to be even worse than the current situation as far as Euroskeptics are concerned as it would leave a number of things still being decided by the EU with even less ability to influence those decisions.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2014, 03:16:10 AM »

Unless the UKIP or BNP are big winners in 2015 the UK should make out just fine... Same with the EU after much handwringing, as they have much bigger problems anyway (Russia).
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ingemann
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« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2014, 06:51:05 PM »

1st Phase: Well first when UK vote to leave, the negotiation will begin to lessen the effects. At the same time UK will likely see a recession as the stocks fall and fewer people invest in UK as the investors are unsure of the future. Some foreign companies begin to move their European headquarters to Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris and other cities in EU.

2nd Phase: At some point the negotiation will end, as UK are in a very weak position, we will likely see them just rejoin EFTA. Which mean they will more or less have to follow EU directives and regulations, while they have no influence on making them, but they will likely be able to raise the borders to EU immigration, of course at the same time UK continue to pay to EU as part of the EEA agreement (http://www.eu-norway.org/eu/Financial-contribution/#.VF6qMPmG-VM) . The move of companies continue, but the recession is likely over, through the growth rates are low.

3rd Phase: New EU directives favour the members over UK, UK protest but are ignored. Low growth rates continue and in general UK suffer from companies choosing other cities than London to place their European headquarter in, and non-European companies with factories in Europea with focus on the European markets choose to place new ones other places in EU and invest less in the factories in UK, as they fear the instability in the EU-UK relationship. London no longer compete with New York in being the world's financial centre, New York clearly have that position by then, through London is still a major financial centre, through it's falling.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2014, 12:53:29 AM »

2nd Phase: At some point the negotiation will end, as UK are in a very weak position, we will likely see them just rejoin EFTA. Which mean they will more or less have to follow EU directives and regulations, while they have no influence on making them, but they will likely be able to raise the borders to EU immigration, of course at the same time UK continue to pay to EU as part of the EEA agreement (http://www.eu-norway.org/eu/Financial-contribution/#.VF6qMPmG-VM) . The move of companies continue, but the recession is likely over, through the growth rates are low.
Just because a country is in the EFTA does not mean that it must be part of the EEA.  Indeed, for the Euroskeptics it wouldn't make much sense for the UK to remain in the EEA if it leaves the EU.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2014, 01:27:59 AM »

Obviously it would be dire, but I wonder what the effect would be on Ireland if we left the EEA? We are their largest trading partner so they could have a disaster...
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2014, 02:09:35 AM »
« Edited: November 10, 2014, 06:10:30 PM by True Federalist »

Obviously it would be dire, but I wonder what the effect would be on Ireland if we left the EEA? We are their largest trading partner so they could have a disaster...
Assuming that the UK remains part of EFTA, trade in goods shouldn't be heavily affected.
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ingemann
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« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2014, 11:38:15 AM »

2nd Phase: At some point the negotiation will end, as UK are in a very weak position, we will likely see them just rejoin EFTA. Which mean they will more or less have to follow EU directives and regulations, while they have no influence on making them, but they will likely be able to raise the borders to EU immigration, of course at the same time UK continue to pay to EU as part of the EEA agreement (http://www.eu-norway.org/eu/Financial-contribution/#.VF6qMPmG-VM) . The move of companies continue, but the recession is likely over, through the growth rates are low.
Just because a country is in the EFTA does not mean that it must be part of the EEA.  Indeed, for the Euroskeptics it wouldn't make much sense for the UK to remain in the EEA if it leaves the EU.

It do not make sense for UK to leave EU period, nothing more to say there. They can be forced to do so through a mix of political incompetence and populism. From that point UK need to limit the negative effects of leaving EU, that includes membership in EEA.

Of course if they choose to say no to EEA membership, my predictions will be offf, and eveything will end up a lot worse.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2014, 06:13:53 PM »

Of course if they choose to say no to EEA membership, my predictions will be off, and everything will end up a lot worse.
Granted, I may be misremembering things since I'm not directly affected, but it seems to me that most, if not all, of the EU policies that get the Euroskeptics riled up are ones that the UK would have to continue to follow if they remained part of the EEA, just with no way to affect them.
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Person Man
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« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2014, 08:59:19 PM »

When I think of succession, I also think of personhood. Could something like that happen in the UK if  the tories are forced to make a coalition with the "teabaggers" (UKIP/BNP)?
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #10 on: November 10, 2014, 08:59:32 PM »

Leaving the EU but staying in the EAA would be extremely disingenuous and contrary to the will of the people, assuming the people voted to leave the EU. Obviously they would mean the EAA as well. Staying in the EAA would just be the global financial oligarchy's way of subverting democracy and basically prove that voting is pointless window dressing.
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politicus
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« Reply #11 on: November 10, 2014, 09:15:02 PM »

When I think of succession, I also think of personhood. Could something like that happen in the UK if  the tories are forced to make a coalition with the "teabaggers" (UKIP/BNP)?

A bit of a strech there...
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #12 on: November 10, 2014, 10:33:10 PM »

Let's suppose David Cameron's Conservatives retain control of Parliament

They don't control it at present.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #13 on: November 10, 2014, 11:08:46 PM »

Let's suppose David Cameron's Conservatives retain control of Parliament

They don't control it at present.

Someone ought to tell Nick Clegg that.
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change08
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« Reply #14 on: November 11, 2014, 07:09:14 AM »

Let's suppose David Cameron's Conservatives retain control of Parliament

They don't control it at present.

Someone ought to tell Nick Clegg that.

Nigel Farage has got more of his agenda through this parliament than Nick Clegg has.
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Person Man
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« Reply #15 on: November 11, 2014, 12:33:53 PM »

When I think of succession, I also think of personhood. Could something like that happen in the UK if  the tories are forced to make a coalition with the "teabaggers" (UKIP/BNP)?

A bit of a strech there...
The point is that bad, bankrupt ideas haven't been this popular amoungst so much of the world since...well...
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CrabCake
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« Reply #16 on: November 11, 2014, 12:42:35 PM »

The Tories would sooner ally with the Greens than the BNP. They seriously do not need the kind of PR that party would bring.

And anyway the BNP are has-beens anyway. So 2009.

As for personhood, UKIP don't seem to be making a big deal about it. Perhaps if the Tories have to rely on DUP for supply and confidence, or if Nadine Dorries inexplicably becomes a kingmaker.

Also, I'm pretty sure that a minority government is much more likely than a full-blown coalition. I can imagine a gaggle of Kippers giving supply; but  a full-blown UKIP-Tory coaliion would be poisonous to both parties.
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Person Man
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« Reply #17 on: November 11, 2014, 12:52:21 PM »

The Tories would sooner ally with the Greens than the BNP. They seriously do not need the kind of PR that party would bring.

And anyway the BNP are has-beens anyway. So 2009.

As for personhood, UKIP don't seem to be making a big deal about it. Perhaps if the Tories have to rely on DUP for supply and confidence, or if Nadine Dorries inexplicably becomes a kingmaker.

Also, I'm pretty sure that a minority government is much more likely than a full-blown coalition. I can imagine a gaggle of Kippers giving supply; but  a full-blown UKIP-Tory coaliion would be poisonous to both parties.
It of course depends on whether tories need the far right. Some polls have the far right doing well enough to force a progressive minority government if the right doesn't unite.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #18 on: November 11, 2014, 01:12:40 PM »

The Tories would sooner ally with the Greens than the BNP. They seriously do not need the kind of PR that party would bring.

And anyway the BNP are has-beens anyway. So 2009.

As for personhood, UKIP don't seem to be making a big deal about it. Perhaps if the Tories have to rely on DUP for supply and confidence, or if Nadine Dorries inexplicably becomes a kingmaker.

Also, I'm pretty sure that a minority government is much more likely than a full-blown coalition. I can imagine a gaggle of Kippers giving supply; but  a full-blown UKIP-Tory coaliion would be poisonous to both parties.
It of course depends on whether tories need the far right. Some polls have the far right doing well enough to force a progressive minority government if the right doesn't unite.

I wonder if a grand coalition might end up as a possibility, especially if both UKIP and especially SNP do well enough to muddle possible majorities for either side but still aren't seen as trustworthy coalition partners?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #19 on: November 11, 2014, 01:47:28 PM »

I doubt it, unless Labour want to PASOK themselves. I think we have had a few (?) local grand coalitions, but these are very much aberrations. The bases of both parties would run riot.
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ingemann
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« Reply #20 on: November 12, 2014, 06:47:38 AM »

Of course if they choose to say no to EEA membership, my predictions will be off, and everything will end up a lot worse.
Granted, I may be misremembering things since I'm not directly affected, but it seems to me that most, if not all, of the EU policies that get the Euroskeptics riled up are ones that the UK would have to continue to follow if they remained part of the EEA, just with no way to affect them.

You're completely right, but do you really think that any British government, no matter party will want to be the one remembered for being in charge while the biggest recession since the thirties hit UK? They will do what's necessary for UK.

Leaving the EU but staying in the EAA would be extremely disingenuous and contrary to the will of the people, assuming the people voted to leave the EU. Obviously they would mean the EAA as well. Staying in the EAA would just be the global financial oligarchy's way of subverting democracy and basically prove that voting is pointless window dressing.

Bullsh**t, if people don't like how the government administrate the result of a referendrum, they can elect another government, and I see no evil grand Rothschildian conspiracy behind stopping a economical collapse of ones country.
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swl
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« Reply #21 on: November 12, 2014, 07:55:09 AM »
« Edited: November 12, 2014, 08:04:11 AM by swl »

There is one example of country in the EFTA and not the EEA, and it's Switzerland. In practice the EU impose its rules to Switzerland. One example is the last referendum on immigration: Swiss people mandated their government to negotiate a cap on immigration from the EU. The EU is answer is no, either you take the full package or you leave it entirely. True, the UK is bigger than Switzerland, but much smaller than the EU.

Some British eurosceptics seem to think that once they leave the EU, everyone (I mean the EU and the US) will beg them to sign bilateral free trade agreements under their own conditions. It's of course not realistic: in negotiations the biggest wins, and both the EU or the US would be able to impose their conditions. Imagine a period of few years without free trade between the UK and the EU: who do you think would yield first?
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ingemann
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« Reply #22 on: November 12, 2014, 08:41:05 AM »

There is one example of country in the EFTA and not the EEA, and it's Switzerland. In practice the EU impose its rules to Switzerland. One example is the last referendum on immigration: Swiss people mandated their government to negotiate a cap on immigration from the EU. The EU is answer is no, either you take the full package or you leave it entirely. True, the UK is bigger than Switzerland, but much smaller than the EU
.

Through it should be said that Switzerland have still kept the new cap on immigration, EU on the other hand have not cancelled all agreements (yet), instead it slowly remove one agreement after another, right now it's mostly the Swiss higher education which have been hurt.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #23 on: November 12, 2014, 02:25:53 PM »

Switzerland apparently wanted to pick and choose which parts of the EAA it would be a part of, and I can see why the EU declined, but the EFTA is a separate agreement from the EAA agreement.  If the UK wants to be part of EFTA only and not any of the EAA add-ons, I fail to see how the EU would be able to decline, and if it did decline, do you really think an expansion of NAFTA to include the UK would be at all difficult to pass?
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ingemann
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« Reply #24 on: November 12, 2014, 03:36:29 PM »

Switzerland apparently wanted to pick and choose which parts of the EAA it would be a part of, and I can see why the EU declined, but the EFTA is a separate agreement from the EAA agreement.  If the UK wants to be part of EFTA only and not any of the EAA add-ons, I fail to see how the EU would be able to decline, and if it did decline, do you really think an expansion of NAFTA to include the UK would be at all difficult to pass?

EU wouldn't want to keep UK out of EFTA (or really being able to), the problem is that there are a reason that most EFTA countries are part of EEA de jura and why Switzerland (the EFTA member which are not) is a de facto part of EEA.
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