Scenario: The United Kingdom Votes to Secede from the European Union

[swl]

There is one example of country in the EFTA and not the EEA, and it's Switzerland. In practice the EU impose its rules to Switzerland. One example is the last referendum on immigration: Swiss people mandated their government to negotiate a cap on immigration from the EU. The EU is answer is no, either you take the full package or you leave it entirely. True, the UK is bigger than Switzerland, but much smaller than the EU.

Some British eurosceptics seem to think that once they leave the EU, everyone (I mean the EU and the US) will beg them to sign bilateral free trade agreements under their own conditions. It's of course not realistic: in negotiations the biggest wins, and both the EU or the US would be able to impose their conditions. Imagine a period of few years without free trade between the UK and the EU: who do you think would yield first?

[swl]

do you really think an expansion of NAFTA to include the UK would be at all difficult to pass?

It would probably be not difficult for the US, but I am not sure that's what people in the UK Independence Party have in mind.