Scenario: The United Kingdom Votes to Secede from the European Union

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Obviously it would be dire, but I wonder what the effect would be on Ireland if we left the EEA? We are their largest trading partner so they could have a disaster...

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The Tories would sooner ally with the Greens than the BNP. They seriously do not need the kind of PR that party would bring.

And anyway the BNP are has-beens anyway. So 2009.

As for personhood, UKIP don't seem to be making a big deal about it. Perhaps if the Tories have to rely on DUP for supply and confidence, or if Nadine Dorries inexplicably becomes a kingmaker.

Also, I'm pretty sure that a minority government is much more likely than a full-blown coalition. I can imagine a gaggle of Kippers giving supply; but  a full-blown UKIP-Tory coaliion would be poisonous to both parties.

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I doubt it, unless Labour want to PASOK themselves. I think we have had a few (?) local grand coalitions, but these are very much aberrations. The bases of both parties would run riot.

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Some Atlanticists both side of the pond have mused about joining NAFTA, but I doubt the Kipper base would be particularly amused if that happened.

People in this country like being the big fish in the agreements. If the EU is noxious, I doubt they'll be delighted with being utterly dwarfed by the Americans. (Also, Scotland will almost certainly jump out of the union)