Scenario: The United Kingdom Votes to Secede from the European Union

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

A lot depends on how the divorce is handled.  Unless the EU proves totally spiteful, the UK most likely would rejoin the EFTA which is what it was in prior to joining what was then the EEC.  So it wouldn't be a total separation.  Whether the UK remains part of the EEA is less certain, as being part of the EEA and yet not part of the EU would seem to be even worse than the current situation as far as Euroskeptics are concerned as it would leave a number of things still being decided by the EU with even less ability to influence those decisions.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

2nd Phase: At some point the negotiation will end, as UK are in a very weak position, we will likely see them just rejoin EFTA. Which mean they will more or less have to follow EU directives and regulations, while they have no influence on making them, but they will likely be able to raise the borders to EU immigration, of course at the same time UK continue to pay to EU as part of the EEA agreement (http://www.eu-norway.org/eu/Financial-contribution/#.VF6qMPmG-VM) . The move of companies continue, but the recession is likely over, through the growth rates are low.

Just because a country is in the EFTA does not mean that it must be part of the EEA.  Indeed, for the Euroskeptics it wouldn't make much sense for the UK to remain in the EEA if it leaves the EU.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Obviously it would be dire, but I wonder what the effect would be on Ireland if we left the EEA? We are their largest trading partner so they could have a disaster...

Assuming that the UK remains part of EFTA, trade in goods shouldn't be heavily affected.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Of course if they choose to say no to EEA membership, my predictions will be off, and everything will end up a lot worse.

Granted, I may be misremembering things since I'm not directly affected, but it seems to me that most, if not all, of the EU policies that get the Euroskeptics riled up are ones that the UK would have to continue to follow if they remained part of the EEA, just with no way to affect them.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Let's suppose David Cameron's Conservatives retain control of Parliament

They don't control it at present.

Someone ought to tell Nick Clegg that.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Switzerland apparently wanted to pick and choose which parts of the EAA it would be a part of, and I can see why the EU declined, but the EFTA is a separate agreement from the EAA agreement.  If the UK wants to be part of EFTA only and not any of the EAA add-ons, I fail to see how the EU would be able to decline, and if it did decline, do you really think an expansion of NAFTA to include the UK would be at all difficult to pass?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

do you really think an expansion of NAFTA to include the UK would be at all difficult to pass?

It would probably be not difficult for the US, but I am not sure that's what people in the UK Independence Party have in mind.

Thing is, NAFTA is so minimal, even the bare bones EFTA without the EEA additions is probably more stringent.