Catalan Independence Referendum (with FREE constitutional crisis!)
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Author Topic: Catalan Independence Referendum (with FREE constitutional crisis!)  (Read 11705 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #50 on: November 11, 2014, 07:15:03 AM »

Results by comarca ("county"). Left: % turnout on census. Right: % "Yes-Yes" vote on census*

*Catalan residents (Spanish and foreign) aged 16 or more.

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Velasco
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« Reply #51 on: November 12, 2014, 03:09:55 PM »

Mariano Rajoy broke silence this morning to say the "participatory process" was a failure and he will not negotiate a legal binding referendum with Artur Mas.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/11/12/inenglish/1415800929_554859.html

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In reply to criticism from PP hardliners, UPyD and the Vox party, Rajoy claimed the government  "has defended the law and has adopted a sensible and adequate stance". He also rejected complaints by state prosecutors on the alleged meddling of Madrid's government in the Catalan vote case, in order to speed up legal actions against the government of Catalonia. "I am not in a position to tell it what it has to do," he said. "I have to respect the decision of the public prosecutor and of the judiciary because if I didn’t, we would not be going down the right path. Believe me when I say I do not know if they are going to file a complaint. I have given no instructions in this sense".

Rajoy's apperance before the media was preceded yesterday by a hard-toned intervention of Deputy PM Soraya Sáez de Santamaría in the Senate. She made clear neither the government nor PP will give their vote for a "secession agreement".

Yesterday, Catalan premier Artur Mas asked for "permanent dialogue" with Rajoy to find a "politic way out" and the way to hold the "final consultation", that is to say a legal referendum. Trying to keep the momentum he enjoys after the Sunday's informal vote, Mas didn't give clues on early elections and stated that people must not confound goals (referendum on independence) with tools. In a parliamentary appearance today, Mas said if the prosecutor's office acts against him and other members of the Catalan government, it might give a "dramatic picture" of Spain. ERC deems to have concluded the parliamentary agreement (confidence and supply) with CiU and calls for the beginning of a "new stage", whose roadmap detailed Oriol Junqueras today. ERC rejects the joint list proposed by Artur Mas (candidatura de país) but proposes a common platform ("Catalan alliance") based on independence, full employment, social compromise and eradication of corruption.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #52 on: November 12, 2014, 03:37:00 PM »

If Catalonia declared independence, will they still keep the Spanish monarchy or will they form a republic?
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Velasco
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« Reply #53 on: November 12, 2014, 04:10:52 PM »

If that's going to happen, they would form a republic.

It'd be better not anticipating events, because there's no way to get a clue on what's going next.
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Velasco
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« Reply #54 on: November 20, 2014, 04:06:23 AM »

Bad move.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/11/18/inenglish/1416307100_374770.html

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Artur Mas will make an announcement on 24 (maybe we'll see if he calls new elections or not) and Rajoy is scheduled to travel to Barcelona on 29 as part of a new governmental strategy aimed at convincing Catalans that it's better stay together.
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Velasco
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« Reply #55 on: November 22, 2014, 02:47:29 PM »

GESOP / El Periódico de Catalunya:


CiU would retake the first place after the November 9 "participatory process". In the graph, estimation of seats in the Parliament of Catalonia (left) and direct vote intention based on raw polling data (right). Vote estimation is as follows:

CiU 20.8%, ERC 20%, Podemos 13.8%, Cs 13.5%, PSC 8,2%, ICV-EUiA 8.2%,  PP 7.8%, CUP 5.2%.

CiU and ERC would get between 63 and 67 seats, falling short of a majority. Podemos and Ciutadans are tied in the third place while PSC, PP collapse, ICV loses support to a lesser extent and the pro independence CUP doubles the 2012 result.

Vote transfers:


http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/politica/barometro-catalunya-gesop-noviembre-3706164

On a side note, Podemos would win in Navarre!


http://www.huffingtonpost.es/2014/11/21/podemos-navarra-sondeo_n_6197944.html
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Velasco
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« Reply #56 on: November 24, 2014, 04:45:39 AM »

According to the GESOP / El Periódico poll, a CiU-ERC joint list would get less seats in the Parliament of Catalonia than both parties running in their own...


... and Podemos would be the first party in Catalonia if the Spanish General Elections were held now.


A poll released yesterday in the Madrid newspaper El Mundo gives the following result in the whole of Spain: Podemos 28.3%, PP 26.3%, PSOE 20.1%

http://www.elmundo.es/grafico/espana/2014/11/24/5471cbe522601d2a698b4575.html

The charges filed against Artur Mas, his deputy Joana Ortega and the regional minister of Education Irene Rigau by the Spain's Prosecutor General might have altered the premier's plan, according to El País. Intially CiU discarded early elections with the intent of capitalising what they considered a success in (pro independence) citizen mobilisation. Legal actions against the Catalan government may lead Mas to call new elections, despite ERC rejects the premier's calls for a joint pro-independence list. Artur Mas will speak at a conference tomorrow.


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Velasco
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« Reply #57 on: November 26, 2014, 09:20:07 AM »
« Edited: December 02, 2014, 06:54:41 PM by Velasco »

Artur Mas announced yesterday a "roadmap" to proclaim independence within 18 months, but won't call early elections "as a plebiscite" unless ERC agrees on running in a joint ticket. ERC leader Oriol Junqueras states his openness to talk on the Mas proposal without obligation.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/11/26/inenglish/1417000717_811094.html

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Velasco
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« Reply #58 on: December 02, 2014, 07:42:15 PM »

ERC leader Oriol Junqueras rejects a CDC-ERC joint ticket, despite pro independence associations (ANC and Òmnium Cultural) have been exerting pressure on him in order to accept Artur Mas proposals. Junqueras presented yesterday his own "roadmap", which passes to act as an independent state since the very first day of the next legislature, that is to say, without the negotiation period proposed by Mas. The Catalan premier advocates for a true independence referendum within 18 months. Junqueras thinks the "ratification of the Catalan constitution" would be enough to proclaim independence, stating that negotiations with the Spanish state are only possible if they are between equals. ERC wants elections "as soon as possible" because deferring dates "needlessly prolongs the suffering" and expressed willingness to negotiate an "unity government" which proclaims independence unilaterally.

Oriol Junqueras set up distance with Artur Mas on the corruption scandals in which the ruling CiU is involved and the social policies of his administration. In his speech before a 2000 people crowd in the Barcelona Congress Palace, Junqueras was applauded when he said that independence is hand in hand with a "fairer" and "cleaner" country.

Carme Forcadell, the leader of the Catalan National Assembly (ANC), was not pleased with the Junqueras plan. The Catalan network TV3 recorded a heated argument between her and ERC's number two Marta Rovira. Later, Forcadell called Mas and Juqueras to negotiate their respective proposals. Artur Mas attended the conference but refused to make statements: "we came here to listen".

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Simfan34
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« Reply #59 on: June 11, 2015, 04:01:03 PM »

The constitutional court has thrown out the "consultation" held last November for being unconstitutional, rejecting the conceit that its non-binding status rendered it "outside the constitution" rather than "against the constitution", instead considering it as a full-blown referendum. As such, the regional government did not have the right to hold such referenda on "issues that affect all Spaniards", making the "consultation" illegal.

Curiously, I found this while trying to figure out whatever happened in Veneto after 56% of registered voters apparently voted to secede from Italy (!) and whether or not that actually happened.

Anyway, CiU and ERC have now said that they will now regard the November elections as a "plebiscite on Catalonia’s relationship with Spain", and pushing things towards a unilateral declaration of independence...  This of course provides us with an opportunity to bring out some new flowcharts from Señor Fernando Betancourt! (The article is worth reading itself as well.)





What he says below is particularly interesting if true:

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Things, it seems, are only getting messier...
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Velasco
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« Reply #60 on: June 11, 2015, 05:12:03 PM »

Anyway, CiU and ERC have now said that they will now regard the November elections as a "plebiscite on Catalonia’s relationship with Spain", and pushing things towards a unilateral declaration of independence... 

Things, it seems, are only getting messier...

Catalan elections are scheduled on September 27, not in November. Artur Mas announced that date back in January this year and stated that he wanted to make them a "plebiscite". I feel too lazy to read old posts, but for sure that was mentioned already. There are no further developments to date, at least that I've noticed. The Catalan "process" is messy, indeed. However, our friend Fernando Betancourt (the guy must be from the Canaries with that family name) does not offer anything new, although such things are entertaining if you like speculation. Aside the concerns expressed by that article in El Mundo, there is a problem with the Mossos d'Esquadra that I find more serious. Members of that regional police force have been repeatedly accused of brutality against people in detention. Someone should be cleaning up, but the attention is focused on other issues.
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