Governors Mansions up in 2015, 2016, and 2017

[Frodo]

Vote.

[KCDem]

All Safe R. Move along.

[Maxwell]

2015:
Asking me today, Kentucky and Louisiana go Republican, though there is an outside chance one or the other get a shake up and Mitch Landrieu or Jack Conway actually win. Mississippi is basically out of the question for Dems.

2016:
Missouri looks pretty good for Republicans because the Clinton's generally have poor coat-tails. West Virginia is going to be very hard for Democrats, though if Manchin decides to go for it then it is his for the taking. Delaware is not up for grabs for Republicans, especially with Beau Biden running. Vermont will have Shumlin underperforming, but with a significantly better year for Democrats probably awaiting him, I really doubt he's going to lose. If Hassan runs again, New Hampshire is off the table, but she might go for Senate. Utah may have a competitive election with Matheson, but probably not. And some places we don't even need to discuss.

2017:
Virginia and New Jersey flip. A Democrat likely beats whoever the Republicans nominate in New Jersey because the bench isn't super promising for Republicans, and Virginia will have a high profile race but with a Republican (Gillespie) generally favored.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I read that Biden has health problems and probably won't run at all.

Virginia will depend on the candidates. Maybe someone could enlighten us regarding Herring's and Northam's strength.
Gillespie has ruled out a run for governor, IIRC.

[JerryArkansas]

I read that Biden has health problems and probably won't run at all.

Virginia will depend on the candidates. Maybe someone could enlighten us regarding Herring's and Northam's strength.
Gillespie has ruled out a run for governor, IIRC.

The thing is, he has already announced he is running for Governor.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I read that Biden has health problems and probably won't run at all.

Virginia will depend on the candidates. Maybe someone could enlighten us regarding Herring's and Northam's strength.
Gillespie has ruled out a run for governor, IIRC.

The thing is, he has already announced he is running for Governor.

So what? If he doesn't recover sufficiently is there any law that forbids him from withdrawing?

[Maxwell]

I read that Biden has health problems and probably won't run at all.

Virginia will depend on the candidates. Maybe someone could enlighten us regarding Herring's and Northam's strength.
Gillespie has ruled out a run for governor, IIRC.

We'll see in 3 years.

[Indy Texas]

>90%
Louisiana (2015)
Mississippi (2015)
Utah (2016)

>75%
Indiana (2016)
North Dakota (2016)

>50%
Missouri (2016)
Virginia (2017)*
West Virginia (2016)

>25%
Kentucky (2015)**
Montana (2016)
New Hampshire (2016)
New Jersey (2017)
North Carolina (2016)
Vermont (2016)

<10%
Delaware (2016)
Washington (2016)

* Assumes D and R candidates are evenly matched.
** Assumes KY GOP bench doesn't get any stronger.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC,Va, NC, ND, IN, UT, La and MS G O P

KY, MO, WVa, WA, NH, DEL amd VT stay D

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

D: DE, VT, NH, WA, NJ
Toss-up: KY, NC
R: The rest.

[NHI]

If Hassan doesn't run for reelection in '16, then NH is on the table with the right Republican.

[LeBron]

LA (2015) - Likely R, Republican hold. Unless Mitch Landrieu runs, the chances of this going to the Democrat are very, very slim. The LA GOP already has a strong bench running for the seat plus there's the runoff problem.

MS (2015) - Safe R, Republican hold. Even though he deserves to lose, Bryant isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

KY (2015) - Pure Tossup, Democratic hold. Despite McConnell's landslide this year, 2015's Gov race won't be as polarizing. Conway has the strength of running off of a very popular outgoing Democratic Governor who gave his constituents quality healthcare. Conway also has the advantage of having a cleared path to the general while the GOP primary is turning into a clown car. This rating is obviously subject to change, but I give an ever so slight edge to Conway.

MS (2016) - Tossup/Tilt R, Republican pickup. Zweifel, the state treasurer, already declined a run for governor, Koster's apparently in legal trouble now, McCaskill would be an even worse candidate to run for this job, and that leaves only Kander left at the statewide level for Democrats. Kander isn't a very strong candidate though (barely winning in 2012) and he might just choose to run for re-election. Meanwhile, Republicans have a frontrunner in Tom Schweich. This could be a close one, but I give the MO GOP a slight edge given the state itself and the possible candidates.

WV (2016) - Lean R, Republican pickup. This one is hard to predict because we don't know yet if Manchin will run or not. If he doesn't it clearly favors Republicans; otherwise with Manchin it could be a nail-biter. It doesn't matter much if Dems do hold onto the WV Governorship though because the GOP now has control of the WV Legislature and WV has a simple majority override. Republicans will probably nominate Morrisey who's been a strong fighter against the EPA, so besides the fact that WV is shifting into the Republican's favor, they also have a strong candidate for 2016 as well.

NC (2016) - Pure Tossup, Democratic pickup. Unfortunately McCrory is recovering from his 2013 trainwreck of legislation he helped pass, but he's crazy enough to do the same controversial stuff all over again. The strongest possible Democrat, Roy Cooper, is running and with high enough turnout, McCrory should be very worried.

IN (2016) - Safe R, Republican hold. The Indiana Democratic Party is a complete joke. In an open seat where they had a good shot of picking up the seat, the IN Dems nominated a some dude. Bayh already declined a run for Governor and Pence is likely going to run for re-election rather than waste his time in a Presidential primary.

DE (2016) - Safe D, Democratic hold. The DE GOP is arguably the worst statewide GOP party in the nation. Castle is done with politics after his embarrassing 2010 primary defeat and the DE GOP has no one else. Democrats in Delaware have held onto the Governorship for decades, and Beau Biden is about to continue that tradition.

VT (2016) - Likely D, Democratic hold. Like WV, we need to know more info before we can give a clear rating here. If Shumlin retires, then that opens the door to a Phil Scott run on the Republican side and Vermont seems to have no problem having a Republican Governor. For now though, I would just assume Shumlin runs again. Given that Dems comfortably hold the VT Legislature as well, Shumlin also has the benefit of that 50% rule.

NH (2016) - Likely D, Democratic hold. Again, I'm just going to assume Hassan runs. NH Dems have a good bench of others (Kuster, Foster) to run against Ayotte, and NH Dems need Hassan to run again in case the NH GOP somehow manages to hold onto both houses of legislature through 2016.

UT (2016) - Safe R, Republican hold. Herbert is apparently running for re-election and he should be safe. He's pretty popular, and I'm more convinced Matheson runs against the much more vulnerable Mike Lee.

ND (2016) - Safe R, Republican hold. Unless Hoeven decides to retire, I don't see any other reason as to why Dalrymple wouldn't run. North Dakota really does like him and they have a booming economy. The seat will easily stay his if he wants it again, and even if he doesn't run, it's North Dakota.

MT (2016) - Likely D, Democratic hold. Even against the strongest GOP candidate, AG Tim Fox, Bullock still leads. Fox will likely hold off until 2020 if I had to guess, and the MT GOP might just nominate someone from the legislature. It is Montana, but trying to take down Steve Bullock is a losing battle on their side.

WA (2016) - Safe D, Democratic hold. WA has had some close Governor races in the past, but the WA GOP always falls short. Inslee will win.

VA (2017) - Tossup, Republican pickup? I'm unsure on this one, and there's strong candidates on both sides: D (Herring, Northam), R (Bolling, Obenshain, Rigell). It comes down to if the Tea Party screws it up for the VA GOP again and the huge lack of turnout in these off-years, so I'll just say the VA GOP gets a pickup.

NJ (2017) - Leans Democratic, Democratic pickup. A corrupt Governor with national ambitions and a corrupt Lt. Governor who might very well be the frontrunner to replace him in 2017 doesn't look good for the NJ GOP. It's too early to predict this, but I give the edge to Democrats.

To answer the question, LA, MS, MO, WV, IN, UT, ND, and VA all go to the GOP in my prediction.

[IceSpear]

I don't see why Manchin would want to be governor after what happened on Tuesday. He'd be completely at the mercy of the legislature from day 1, assuming he even won. He's better off laying low and hoping the extreme anti-Democrat tide in Appalachia recedes by 2018.

[jaichind]

If the GOP manages to win the governorship in KY in 2015, WV and MO in 2016, VA in 2017 (all four are not locks but have reasonable chance of success) and as expected the GOP hold MS and LA in 2015, as well as NC in 2016, then in early 2018 the GOP would be in charge of ALL Southern States as far as the governor is concerned (WV KY TN MO AR OK VA MD NC SC GA FL AL MS LA TX).  The Democrats achieved this several times since the end of Reconstruction and the last time they managed this was back in 1949-1951.  The weakest link in the chain might be NC in 2016.

[KingSweden]

I don't see why Manchin would want to be governor after what happened on Tuesday. He'd be completely at the mercy of the legislature from day 1, assuming he even won. He's better off laying low and hoping the extreme anti-Democrat tide in Appalachia recedes by 2018.

I was just thinking this too.

[politicus]

I don't see why Manchin would want to be governor after what happened on Tuesday. He'd be completely at the mercy of the legislature from day 1, assuming he even won. He's better off laying low and hoping the extreme anti-Democrat tide in Appalachia recedes by 2018.

I was just thinking this too.

Manchin will be 71 in 2018. Retirement seems most likely.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Louisiana, Indiana, and North Dakota.