2014 Senate results by CD

[Miles]

[JerryArkansas]

Looking at the results so far, about what you would expect.  Arkansas is surprising,  but none of us saw Pryor being Blanched so.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Ugh Minnesota suburbs -.-

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Poor Braley. Can't even carry a single CD.

[Bigby]

Poor Braley. Can't even carry a single CD.

That's Billy Borbney for you.

[DrScholl]

Jeff Sessions won AL-7, so that obviously means it's great pickup opportunity. for Republicans next cycle. /republican logic

[IceSpear]

Whoa, Bailey lost IA-02?!

[Miles]

Whoa, Bailey lost IA-02?!

Yep

[KCDem]

Miles, could you post the corresponding percentages?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

When you have time, I'd love to see VA, GA, IL, and CO.

[Miles]

Miles, could you post the corresponding percentages?

Ok, coming.

When you have time, I'd love to see VA, GA, IL, and CO.

Yes, I'm working on VA. Sadly, I don't see precinct-level results for CO on the SOS site.

[Nichlemn]

Interesting - Franken won MN-07 (Collin Peterson's district)?

[Miles]

Interesting - Franken won MN-07 (Collin Peterson's district)?

Yep. The MN SOS site broke down the Senate/Gov. races by CD



Franken actually ran decently ahead of even Dayton in CD7.

[Gass3268]

Miles, could you post the corresponding percentages?

Ok, coming.

When you have time, I'd love to see VA, GA, IL, and CO.

Yes, I'm working on VA. Sadly, I don't see precinct-level results for CO on the SOS site.

Have to imagine that Warner only won 3 districts.

[Miles]

What I'v got so far. (I don't have NC done yet, but I'm pretty confident about the color shades/intervals I have for it):

[JerryArkansas]

Until Miles give the official results for VA, I can at least give an educated guess at to what each breakdown should be.

1.  54-43 R
2.  51-46 R
3.  77-21 R
4.  50-48 R
5.  55-43 R
6.  61-37 R
7.  55-43 R
8.  69-29 R
9.  59-38 R
10.  49-48 R
11.  55-43 R

[Skill and Chance]

Until Miles give the official results for VA, I can at least give an educated guess at to what each breakdown should be.

1.  54-43 R
2.  51-46 R It's tighter than that-this is the one that could go either way
3.  77-21 D Probably a bit lower
4.  50-48 R I don't think it's that tight, but Warner > McAuliffe here
5.  55-43 R
6.  61-37 R
7.  55-43 R
8.  69-29 D Warner had some issues here, probably low 60's
9.  59-38 R
10.  49-48 R Cuccinelli won this by 1, so Gillespie probably won by 4-5
11.  55-43 D Clearly a Warner win, probably 56-58%

[JerryArkansas]

Until Miles give the official results for VA, I can at least give an educated guess at to what each breakdown should be.

1.  54-43 R
2.  51-46 R It's tighter than that-this is the one that could go either way
3.  77-21 D Probably a bit lower
4.  50-48 R I don't think it's that tight, but Warner > McAuliffe here
5.  55-43 R
6.  61-37 R
7.  55-43 R
8.  69-29 D Warner had some issues here, probably low 60's
9.  59-38 R
10.  49-48 R Cuccinelli won this by 1, so Gillespie probably won by 4-5
11.  55-43 D Clearly a Warner win, probably 56-58%

I'll give you the second and probably the 2/10.  For the 8th, his drop off shouldn't put him in the low 60's, mid 60's I could see.  On 11, Gillespie did great in Fairfax County, but 56 I see him getting.   I did mainly projected these results off of swing from 2013 AG Race.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Great work!   

[Miles]

VA:



Warner seems like he did really poorly CD1, vis-à-vis Obama '12, who only lost it by 7.5%.

This is also the first major election, at least in a few cycles, where CD9 was more Dem than CD6.

[Skill and Chance]

VA:



Warner seems like he did really poorly CD1, vis-à-vis Obama '12, who only lost it by 7.5%.

This is also the first major election, at least in a few cycles, where CD9 was more Dem than CD6.

For comparison, here is McAuliffe vs. Cuccinelli (from Bloomberg):

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Of course, we have to keep in mind that Sarvis took much more in 2013.  What stands out to me is that Gillespie not only won CD-10, but did better there than in CD-04!  Also, CD-11 stayed impressively strong Dem so the divide was inner vs. outer suburbs with the exurbs returning to 60/40 GOP without social issue weirdness.  CD-02 looks like a much better Dem target than CD-10 going forward and CD-04 could get interesting due to the incumbent's social issue extremism.  The demographic change factor actually showed up most in the Richmond area this time around.

[Devils30]

VA-10 can be blue by the end of the decade. People look at the numbers this year but Loudoun county growth helps Dems in the long run. The 10th was probably close to 60-40 Bush in 2004 so you can see where the long term trend is.

[homelycooking]

RI-01: Reed 108122 (74.1%), Zaccaria 35548 (25.7%)
RI-02: Reed 115178 (67.6%), Zaccaria 55026 (32.3%)

The numbers you've all been waiting for!

[Miles]

^ Thanks, everything helps!

Here's NH and GA:

[Miles]

SC: