2014 Senate results by CD

[tmthforu94]

Maybe it has just become too polarized, but I feel like a huge Democratic wave would be absolutely detrimental to the GOP in North Carolina.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maybe it has just become too polarized, but I feel like a huge Democratic wave would be absolutely detrimental to the GOP in North Carolina.

Whilst there are a lot of North Carolinians from Ohio (Pat McCrory), there aren't as many from Indiana and thus they lack the critical knowledge of that state's history of getting too greedy with the mapping. We'll see.

They should have just left Shuler and McIntyre as they were and that would have allowed them to create far more Republican districts in the second, third, eighth and tenth districts.

[nclib]

Maybe it has just become too polarized, but I feel like a huge Democratic wave would be absolutely detrimental to the GOP in North Carolina.

Even a 2006/8 wave would probably give the Dems only 5-6 U.S. House seats.

[Skill and Chance]

Maybe it has just become too polarized, but I feel like a huge Democratic wave would be absolutely detrimental to the GOP in North Carolina.

Whilst there are a lot of North Carolinians from Ohio (Pat McCrory), there aren't as many from Indiana and thus they lack the critical knowledge of that state's history of getting too greedy with the mapping. We'll see.

They should have just left Shuler and McIntyre as they were and that would have allowed them to create far more Republican districts in the second, third, eighth and tenth districts.

CD-13 looks like the biggest problem.  That outer Wake seat is VA CD-11 waiting to happen and I think it would flip in the next R president midterm.  Of course, the legislature would just vote-sink that Dem in 2021.  CD-02, 05, and 09 would flip in a 1974 style Dem wave, but they would probably be won back the next cycle so I don't understand the GOP concern there.

[Miles]

^ In 2021, I think a southeastern Fayetteville-Lumberton D sink is the best option for Rs. That way, even if CD13 flips, CD4 wouldn't have that leg into Fayetteville and could soak up more Democrats in the Triangle. That way, Rs would have a good chance of winning 13 back.

The biggest question with making a southeastern sink is that the Rs would have to leave CD12 the same. By 2021, I'm not sure it could still do "double duty" by containing Democrats in both Charlotte and the Triangle.

[Skill and Chance]

^ In 2021, I think a southeastern Fayetteville-Lumberton D sink is the best option for Rs. That way, even if CD13 flips, CD4 wouldn't have that leg into Fayetteville and could soak up more Democrats in the Triangle. That way, Rs would have a good chance of winning 13 back.

The biggest question with making a southeastern sink is that the Rs would have to leave CD12 the same. By 2021, I'm not sure it could still do "double duty" by containing Democrats in both Charlotte and the Triangle.

If I were the NC GOP in this scenario and the Raleigh/Durham suburbs are blue enough that NC-13 flipped, I would just draw the Dem who beat Holding from eastern Wake down to Fayetteville.  Then NC-04 can go from Durham/Chapel Hill west to the Triad.  That would be a solid 10R/4D map.

[homelycooking]

ME-01: Collins 207028 (65.6%), Bellows 108398 (34.3%)
ME-02: Collins 206052 (71.7%), Bellows 81432 (28.2%)

[KCDem]

ME-01: Collins 207028 (65.6%), Bellows 108398 (34.3%)
ME-02: Collins 206052 (71.7%), Bellows 81432 (28.2%)

The people of Maine are disgusting.

[ElectionsGuy]

Although this isn't a Senate race, It would be fascinating to see TN-9 for the governor's race. Haslam got 57% from Shelby County, and its probable that he could've gotten 20%+ of the black vote.

[Miles]

^ I'll see when the TN SoS gets detailed results out, but my guess is that he still lost it. He lost it by 39 in 2010; assuming the swing in CD9 was about even with Shelby County overall, he should have gotten in the low-mid 40s.

[ElectionsGuy]

^ I'll see when the TN SoS gets detailed results out, but my guess is that he still lost it. He lost it by 39 in 2010; assuming the swing in CD9 was about even with Shelby County overall, he should have gotten in the low-mid 40s.

I'm pretty sure he lost it too, but even if he's close it tells us that he had almost universal popularity. It is likely a combination of the white suburbs being extremely Republican and a significant chunk of black voters voting for him.

[KCDem]

^ I'll see when the TN SoS gets detailed results out, but my guess is that he still lost it. He lost it by 39 in 2010; assuming the swing in CD9 was about even with Shelby County overall, he should have gotten in the low-mid 40s.

I'm pretty sure he lost it too, but even if he's close it tells us that he had almost universal popularity. It is likely a combination of the white suburbs being extremely Republican and a significant chunk of black voters voting for him.

I'm going to guess poor turnout. It was 80% of 2010's and Haslam actually got 209 fewer votes in Shelby thaninge 2010. I would guess the drop is mostly in black precincts.

[KCDem]

Does anyone have the Nebraska numbers for Governor?

[Miles]

Nothing earth-shattering here, just tweaked my GA numbers, as results have been finalized:

[Miles]

Does anyone have the Nebraska numbers for Governor?

[ElectionsGuy]

That NE-2 result really shows how bad Terry is. Even Ricketts won it by almost double digits...

[Miles]

'Got a majority of the Michigan districts done:



Notes:

- I'll do CDs 12/13/14 if (when) I find a Wayne county precinct list in an excel-friendly format. I have the precinct breakdown, but its a PDF of a written document (I'm not sure I can convert it). I love ya'll, but I'm not gonna go in and hand copy each of the thousands numbers from the PDF into excel cells. CD11 has a handful of municipalities in Wayne county, but thankfully the individual town/city websites had results.

-  There's a county split between CDs 5 and 10 in Tuscola county. I couldn't find municipal/precinct results for the county, but Peters was within 1% of Obama 08. I found the Obama 08 town results and applied a uniform swing. I should be pretty close, but even if I'm off by more, I doubt it would flip CD10 to Peters.

[smoltchanov]

Interesting. I didn't expect 6th to be more Republican then 7th, 8th and 11th, for example... Expected it to be more moderate...

[Maxwell]

That NE-2 result really shows how bad Terry is. Even Ricketts won it by almost double digits...

Indeed. The Governors race I thought would be a surprise of sorts (At least Ricketts winning by less than double digits overall). Rickett's overperformed expectations by some, but I think that is mostly because of the wave, which really puts Terry's performance in perspective.

Which makes it unlikely that Ashford wins a second term, in my eyes. I'm not 100% he even runs (perhaps uses the office as a jumping off point as he has many a time throughout his career).

[smoltchanov]

He may win second (turnout will be substantially bigger in 2016 and district is competitive in Presidential year, plus - some crossover appeal), but third? Unlikely...

[Miles]

Oregon:

[ElectionsGuy]

Wehby can't even get a majority of the vote in the 2nd district? Fail!

[Senator Cris]

Colorado?

[Miles]

^ I've been doing what I can for CO, but don't have much, ATM. The Secretary of State site looks like it has precinct-level results for past years, but not this year (yet). I'm going to individual county sites to see if I can work around that, so its taking longer than I'd like.

[Miles]

Yep, I reached out to the Colorado SoS elections divison. The detailed results for this year won't be out until June (!) and there's a $50 fee. I've emailed the elections boards for specific counties, too (Jefferson, Adams, Park); unless they tell me otherwise, we'll probably just have to wait until DKE crunches the numbers for CO.