2014 Senate results by CD

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Any word on when we'll get Illinois data?

[Miles]

^ You'll probably have to ask muon there, but I have a feeling we'll have to defer to DKE for IL, too.

I updated MI. Peters carried CD4, which was moderately surprising to me.

The bad news from MI is that the Wayne County clerk emailed me that they don't have precinct results in my preferred format. I'll be looking to the the individual municipalities for results; other than that, I'll have to copy the precinct results for the townships that I can't find by individually by hand into my Excel workbook. It might take a while

[Miles]

Good news! Jefferson County, CO sent me precinct data

[SPC]

How did third parties do so well in Oregon?

[user12345]

How did third parties do so well in Oregon?

Just a guess, but maybe with mail voting people take more time to research who is on the ballot.

[Miles]

How did third parties do so well in Oregon?

Just a guess, but maybe with mail voting people take more time to research who is on the ballot.

Also a majority (almost 5% of the 7.4% total) of the third party vote went to either the Libertarian or the Constitution candidate; maybe they thought Wehby was too squishy in the middle.

[Miles]

I need data from Adams County to calculate CDs 6 and 7, but here's what I've come up with for the others:



I only had to do guesswork in a few places:

- I still haven't gotten anything from Park County. Its a relatively small county split between CDs 2 and 5. From looking through past data, the portions in the different CDs cast about the same share of the overall vote. The CD2 portion is slightly more Republican than the county as a whole with the CD5 precincts being a few points more Democratic. If I ever get detailed data, I'll revisit it, but I can't imagine it makes a huge difference over what I have now.

- CD4 has a few precincts in eastern Adams County. They're sparsely populated and are 67% R at the Presidential level. Their statewide average in DRA is about 70% R in DRA, so thats what I used for Gardner's percentages. We're only talking about 3K votes being cast between these precincts, so again, whatever difference it makes would just be a rounding error.

When (if) I get full Adams county results, I'll also double-check everything else.

[Brittain33]

How did third parties do so well in Oregon?

Just a guess, but maybe with mail voting people take more time to research who is on the ballot.

It's a lot less time-consuming to do a protest vote by mail than in person. I'm sure those 3rd party votes represent people who otherwise wouldn't have voted.

[muon2]

Any word on when we'll get Illinois data?

^ You'll probably have to ask muon there, but I have a feeling we'll have to defer to DKE for IL, too.

I updated MI. Peters carried CD4, which was moderately surprising to me.

The bad news from MI is that the Wayne County clerk emailed me that they don't have precinct results in my preferred format. I'll be looking to the the individual municipalities for results; other than that, I'll have to copy the precinct results for the townships that I can't find by individually by hand into my Excel workbook. It might take a while

The good news is that the complete set of all results, by precinct, for every county and city with a separate board of elections, was posted at the State Board of Elections on Dec 1. Every jurisdiction is in CSV format so it ports easily into Excel or any other spreadsheet or database. The difficulty is that there are 112 separate files and no cross correlations. Individual ballot lines are each treated separately in the files.

To answer a question like how did Durbin do by CD or Rauner by Legislative District requires finding all the precincts in the smaller district then finding the same precincts for the other race of interest. Its quite time consuming in a simple spreadsheet like Excel. It's a more reasonable task with a relational database like Access.

In any case, the SBE isn't going to create the correlations. The number of possible correlations between offices is enormous. Who is to say that US Senate by CD is the most important one to do? Since DKE did this for the 2012 data, I won't be surprised if they do the same for 2014. Of course they get to choose the correlations in that case.

[Miles]

As I had data for all the other counties, I just applied a uniform swing to Adams County and broke it down by CD. This is what I got:



I don't think a uniform swing from 2012 would be unrealistic, given 1) the race was highly nationalized and 2) turnout was relatively high, at near-Presidential levels.

So the overall picture looks like this:



I guess I'll go with these numbers for the time being.

If my CD6/7 hold up, it really makes Coffman look good; he ran about 5.5% over Gardner in CD6.

[Maxwell]

Lamborn underperformed Gardner like crazy. He only won 60-40, while Gardner won that district 62-32 (a whole 10 point difference in the margin).

[Miles]

Another thing that makes Gardner's win impressive is that CD2 cast, by far, the most votes.

The second most was Gardner's district. CD2 still cast over 20% more votes than CD4 though.

[Miles]

The Virginia Public Access Project, which is usually pretty good, has 2014 Senate by CD numbers.

When I went to check my calculations against theirs, I realized that their numbers seem screwy. None of their district totals even sum up to 100% for the combined candidates:




Odd.

[nclib]

Ada County (only split county in Idaho) has precinct results but they're hard to navigate. https://adacounty.id.gov/elections/results_November_2014.html

[Sol]

It looks like the 1st includes the rightwing suburban part of Ada, which almost certainly voted R by a good margin.

[Miles]

Mississippi:



The MS election site seems to have improved somewhat; I remember results from previous cycles being harder to find. These results were pretty straightforward. The only split county I had to make an educated guess for was Clarke (its a small county and I don't think I'd be off by more than a few dozen votes).

You could see a decent McDaniel 'protest' effect in CD4. He carried it against Cochran in both the primary and runoff; it had, by far, the highest number of third party votes.

[Miles]

Although this isn't a Senate race, It would be fascinating to see TN-9 for the governor's race. Haslam got 57% from Shelby County, and its probable that he could've gotten 20%+ of the black vote.

I'm just starting to work on TN data, but this was the first thing that I thought of:



He carried the TN-08 portion of the county 78/15.

[ElectionsGuy]

Although this isn't a Senate race, It would be fascinating to see TN-9 for the governor's race. Haslam got 57% from Shelby County, and its probable that he could've gotten 20%+ of the black vote.

I'm just starting to work on TN data, but this was the first thing that I thought of:



He carried the TN-08 portion of the county 78/15.

That is some low turnout, alright. Very impressive for Haslam to get >40% in a district that's 65% black. And holy crap at the TN-08 portion, that is some stark divide between the Memphis area.

[Miles]

And for the TN Senate race:



Yep, turnout was awful in CD9. The next lowest was CD1, which still cast about 30% more votes than CD9.

I might try to do what I can of TX next. It would be nice to round out the south.

[Miles]

I was going back to double-check some of my earlier calculations, as I did some CDs before results were fully finalized. KS was one of those states. I was interested in the Governor's race (I maybe should make a similar separate thread):



It was surprising to me that Brownback did worse in CD2 than CD3.

[Vosem]

It was surprising to me that Brownback did worse in CD2 than CD3.

Lynn Jenkins did worse than Kevin Yoder, too. Jenkins was also usually rated as the most vulnerable member of the House delegation by prognosticators, which I noticed before the election:

From what I've heard, there's been a bit of buzz about Jenkins (though she's still definitely favored), but Huelskamp, Yoder, and Pompeo are all utterly safe.

Of course in the end with Brownback winning, and Roberts by double digits, every member of the House delegation was totally safe.

[Miles]

^ I broke down the Senate results first, so it wasn't expecting CD2 to be Davis' best.

[smoltchanov]

It seems that for some suburbanites in Kansas it's much easier to vote for Indie then for Democrat...

[Miles]

Well, looks like I'm gonna have to just go with my estimates for CO-06 and CO-07, at least until (if) DKE puts anything else out.

I emailed Adams County asking for precinct-level results; they told me I'd have to pay $250 (!) for them. It doesn't make sense, considering Jefferson County sent them to me for free and Arapahoe just posts precinct results on their elections page. Sigh.

[Miles]

Idaho: