2014 Senate results by CD
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  2014 Senate results by CD
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Author Topic: 2014 Senate results by CD  (Read 23513 times)
nclib
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« Reply #100 on: January 07, 2015, 10:13:09 PM »

The only CD's to vote for a different party in the Senate than in the House:

Dem Senate/Rep House

KS-3 (Orman)
MI-4
MI-7
MI-8
MI-11
MN-2

Rep Senate/Dem House

IA-2
ME-1
NE-2

Incredible polarization. That's only 6.1% of total seats (not counting Ala.)
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IceSpear
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« Reply #101 on: January 07, 2015, 11:10:37 PM »

The only CD's to vote for a different party in the Senate than in the House:

Dem Senate/Rep House

KS-3 (Orman)
MI-4
MI-7
MI-8
MI-11
MN-2

Rep Senate/Dem House

IA-2
ME-1
NE-2

Incredible polarization. That's only 6.1% of total seats (not counting Ala.)

Indeed. And also puts into perspective how terrible Lee Terry and Terri Lynn Land were.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #102 on: January 09, 2015, 10:11:31 PM »


Whats pretty significant about this is the increasingly Democratic trend in Boise. Usually these districts are pretty close politically, but ID-02 which gets the Boise city part of Ada County is 6 points leftward of ID-01.

Its pretty visible actually in all the Idaho statewide races.
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Miles
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« Reply #103 on: January 09, 2015, 11:02:08 PM »

^ FWIW, Risch lost the CD2 part of Ada County 58/42 but won the CD1 part 67/33 (though the CD2 part cast slightly more votes).
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Miles
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« Reply #104 on: January 17, 2015, 04:08:40 PM »

Texas

CD Summary:


Detail:
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #105 on: January 17, 2015, 04:58:45 PM »

Oh my god, that is a huge margin in CD 23. Now I know why Gallego lost.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #106 on: January 17, 2015, 05:40:03 PM »

The only CD's to vote for a different party in the Senate than in the House:

Dem Senate/Rep House

KS-3 (Orman)
MI-4
MI-7
MI-8
MI-11
MN-2

Rep Senate/Dem House

IA-2
ME-1
NE-2

Incredible polarization. That's only 6.1% of total seats (not counting Ala.)

Wow. I suppose some of this is because gerrymandering has reduced the number of swing districts as opposed to just straight ticket-voting.

ME-01 seems like it'd have the biggest gap by a pretty wide margin - 58%-29% Dem in the House, 66%-34% Rep in the Senate.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #107 on: January 22, 2015, 11:47:03 AM »

I'm just updating my VA numbers so that they reflect the official results:

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #108 on: January 24, 2015, 09:13:19 PM »

At the risk of blatant self-promotion, I'm turning this into a series at AOSHQDD.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #109 on: January 29, 2015, 12:45:08 PM »

The good news is that the complete set of all results, by precinct, for every county and city with a separate board of elections, was posted at the State Board of Elections on Dec 1. Every jurisdiction is in CSV format so it ports easily into Excel or any other spreadsheet or database. The difficulty is that there are 112 separate files and no cross correlations. Individual ballot lines are each treated separately in the files.

To answer a question like how did Durbin do by CD or Rauner by Legislative District requires finding all the precincts in the smaller district then finding the same precincts for the other race of interest. Its quite time consuming in a simple spreadsheet like Excel. It's a more reasonable task with a relational database like Access.

In any case, the SBE isn't going to create the correlations. The number of possible correlations between offices is enormous. Who is to say that US Senate by CD is the most important one to do? Since DKE did this for the 2012 data, I won't be surprised if they do the same for 2014. Of course they get to choose the correlations in that case.

Thanks, muon. I'm doing IL next and these links have been pretty helpful. They've been easier than going to each county/municpal site for results.

The most time-consuming part was Chicago, where there were about 130 split voting districts that I had to assign. I don't have time (nor really the patience, even by my standards) to split them individually, so I gave them to whichever CD they cast the most votes in; 'rounding to the nearest precinct' is how I usually deal with those situations. Thankfully, the split precincts were pretty lopsidedly split towards one CD, so it was obvious where to assign them. Yes, it leaves some margin for error, but most were heavily Dem anyway and we're talking about 130 out of 2,000+ precincts.

I'm working with some of the data-crunchers from DKE. I'll probably be the only one doing an exhaustive set of Senate/Gov races by CD, at least for the next few months. DKE seems more focused on breaking results down by LD.  
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Miles
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« Reply #110 on: February 01, 2015, 05:49:11 AM »

Illinois

Summary:


Detail:
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windjammer
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« Reply #111 on: February 01, 2015, 08:21:12 AM »

I'm just updating my VA numbers so that they reflect the official results:


So it appears that the VA gerrymander is going to be over at least for the 2nd congressional seat Cheesy.
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Vosem
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« Reply #112 on: February 01, 2015, 11:18:23 PM »

So it appears that the VA gerrymander is going to be over at least for the 2nd congressional seat Cheesy.

Obama won that district, as well.
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #113 on: February 02, 2015, 12:31:56 PM »


Interesting stuff. Durbin didn't even win his home district, despite picking up some Romney-Rauner counties down there. Did very well in IL-10 relative to Schneider.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #114 on: February 10, 2015, 08:52:01 PM »

DKE and I got the results from Adams County, so here are the updated CO numbers:



My estimate for allocating Adams County by CD was pretty good; I was off by less than 600 votes overall!

The only county I had to estimate for was Park (very small). I think we'll call these the official numbers for our purposes.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #115 on: February 11, 2015, 09:29:30 PM »

I don't have detailed data for 3 or 4 split rural towns, buts these results would hardly change anyway:

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smoltchanov
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« Reply #116 on: February 11, 2015, 11:57:05 PM »

Not so bad for Herr, who was generally unknown and had no money. And almost 45% in 9th shows that even Massachusetts liberalism has it's limits...
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Miles
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« Reply #117 on: February 12, 2015, 12:20:56 PM »

New Jersey



The interesting thing here is that CD2 was Obama -> Bell but CD5 was Romney/McCain -> Booker.

Are people in the south that reluctant to vote for someone from the northern metro area?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #118 on: February 12, 2015, 02:54:47 PM »

Booker won Garrett's district? Wow. Dems really need to try to compete there in 2016.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #119 on: February 12, 2015, 03:33:43 PM »

^ The difference seems to be Bergen County (which makes up the bulk of the district). Booker won the CD5 potion of it 56/44 while Obama only won it 51/48.
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Miles
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« Reply #120 on: February 12, 2015, 11:04:23 PM »

My latest AOS post on this. Last time it was the south, this time its the northeast and Great Lakes.
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Vosem
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« Reply #121 on: February 13, 2015, 12:29:05 AM »

Fantastic diary, Miles!
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Senator Cris
Cris
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« Reply #122 on: February 13, 2015, 09:51:17 AM »

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #123 on: February 13, 2015, 10:59:20 AM »

^ Thanks!

Its funny because when I started to make those maps, I kinda just automatically use the Atlas colors. AOS asked me to use the normal colors. I would get halfway through a state and realize "damn, I used the colors!" and then fix it.
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Vosem
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« Reply #124 on: February 14, 2015, 07:58:52 PM »

The only CD's to vote for a different party in the Senate than in the House:

Dem Senate/Rep House

KS-3 (Orman)
MI-4
MI-7
MI-8
MI-11
MN-2

Rep Senate/Dem House

IA-2
ME-1
NE-2

Incredible polarization. That's only 6.1% of total seats (not counting Ala.)

Now that the map is basically finished (Hawaii's results can be guessed at, and MA and NJ are up at Ace of Spades), this list can be finished as well. 239 congressional districts voted in the 2014 Senate elections (double-counting OK and SC) -- of those, 12 voted for opposite parties for the Senate and House (12/239 = 5.02%):

IA-02 (Ernst/Loebsack)
IL-08 (Durbin/Dold)
KS-03 (Orman/Yoder)
ME-01 (Collins/Pingree)
MI-04 (Peters/Moolenaar)
MI-07 (Peters/Walberg)
MI-08 (Peters/Bishop)
MI-11 (Peters/Trott)
MN-02 (Franken/Kline)
NE-02 (Sasse/Ashford)
NJ-05 (Booker/Garrett)
TX-28 (Cornyn/Cuellar)

The only Senate candidate to win more than one congressional district that voted for the opposite party was Gary Peters in Michigan, who carried 4 such districts. The phenomenon of voting for a Democrat to the Senate but a Republican to the House was twice as common as the reverse; 8 of these 12 are D-Sen/R-HoR, and only 4 are R-Sen/D-HoR. (This counts Orman as a D).
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