2014 Senate results by CD

[Miles]

[Miles]

Whoa, Bailey lost IA-02?!

Yep

[Miles]

Miles, could you post the corresponding percentages?

Ok, coming.

When you have time, I'd love to see VA, GA, IL, and CO.

Yes, I'm working on VA. Sadly, I don't see precinct-level results for CO on the SOS site.

[Miles]

Interesting - Franken won MN-07 (Collin Peterson's district)?

Yep. The MN SOS site broke down the Senate/Gov. races by CD



Franken actually ran decently ahead of even Dayton in CD7.

[Miles]

What I'v got so far. (I don't have NC done yet, but I'm pretty confident about the color shades/intervals I have for it):

[Miles]

VA:



Warner seems like he did really poorly CD1, vis-à-vis Obama '12, who only lost it by 7.5%.

This is also the first major election, at least in a few cycles, where CD9 was more Dem than CD6.

[Miles]

^ Thanks, everything helps!

Here's NH and GA:

[Miles]

SC:

[Miles]

^Thanks!

[Miles]

Braley actually won a CD...on the old map.

[Miles]

NC:




My only disclaimer: There are still some counties that have yet to tabulate all of their early vote by precinct. As usual, I used that same method that DRA does in estimating precinct-level results to account for those instances. Usually, the election site allocates all the county-level early votes by precinct, it just takes longer. I'll be checking for updates.

I also want to break the results down by the old lines; mostly to see how much more fair that map was compared to the current version.

[Miles]

^ What makes it really effective is that, even when Hagan won by almost 9%, she still didn't win any of the Republican districts. She lost most of them 45/50, instead of 40/55-ish this year.

[Miles]

The old NC districts:

[Miles]

NC has got to be the worst gerrymander in the entire country. I mean, the D's should get at least 4 districts.

Have you seen the OH map?

3/13 = 23%
4/16 = 25%

[Miles]

^ In 2021, I think a southeastern Fayetteville-Lumberton D sink is the best option for Rs. That way, even if CD13 flips, CD4 wouldn't have that leg into Fayetteville and could soak up more Democrats in the Triangle. That way, Rs would have a good chance of winning 13 back.

The biggest question with making a southeastern sink is that the Rs would have to leave CD12 the same. By 2021, I'm not sure it could still do "double duty" by containing Democrats in both Charlotte and the Triangle.

[Miles]

^ I'll see when the TN SoS gets detailed results out, but my guess is that he still lost it. He lost it by 39 in 2010; assuming the swing in CD9 was about even with Shelby County overall, he should have gotten in the low-mid 40s.

[Miles]

Nothing earth-shattering here, just tweaked my GA numbers, as results have been finalized:

[Miles]

Does anyone have the Nebraska numbers for Governor?

[Miles]

'Got a majority of the Michigan districts done:



Notes:

- I'll do CDs 12/13/14 if (when) I find a Wayne county precinct list in an excel-friendly format. I have the precinct breakdown, but its a PDF of a written document (I'm not sure I can convert it). I love ya'll, but I'm not gonna go in and hand copy each of the thousands numbers from the PDF into excel cells. CD11 has a handful of municipalities in Wayne county, but thankfully the individual town/city websites had results.

-  There's a county split between CDs 5 and 10 in Tuscola county. I couldn't find municipal/precinct results for the county, but Peters was within 1% of Obama 08. I found the Obama 08 town results and applied a uniform swing. I should be pretty close, but even if I'm off by more, I doubt it would flip CD10 to Peters.

[Miles]

Oregon:

[Miles]

^ I've been doing what I can for CO, but don't have much, ATM. The Secretary of State site looks like it has precinct-level results for past years, but not this year (yet). I'm going to individual county sites to see if I can work around that, so its taking longer than I'd like.

[Miles]

Yep, I reached out to the Colorado SoS elections divison. The detailed results for this year won't be out until June (!) and there's a $50 fee. I've emailed the elections boards for specific counties, too (Jefferson, Adams, Park); unless they tell me otherwise, we'll probably just have to wait until DKE crunches the numbers for CO.

[Miles]

^ You'll probably have to ask muon there, but I have a feeling we'll have to defer to DKE for IL, too.

I updated MI. Peters carried CD4, which was moderately surprising to me.

The bad news from MI is that the Wayne County clerk emailed me that they don't have precinct results in my preferred format. I'll be looking to the the individual municipalities for results; other than that, I'll have to copy the precinct results for the townships that I can't find by individually by hand into my Excel workbook. It might take a while

[Miles]

Good news! Jefferson County, CO sent me precinct data

[Miles]

How did third parties do so well in Oregon?

Just a guess, but maybe with mail voting people take more time to research who is on the ballot.

Also a majority (almost 5% of the 7.4% total) of the third party vote went to either the Libertarian or the Constitution candidate; maybe they thought Wehby was too squishy in the middle.