exit polls: D: Clinton leads everywhere; R: Huck leads IA/SC, Bush leads NH

[Mr. Morden]

Linking to the copies of the exit polls on Fox's website, but these were conducted by Edison Research as part of the National Election Pool exit poll (the one that all the networks use) this past Tuesday.  These are from the 2014 midterm exit polls for Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina:

Iowa:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2014/exit-polls?year=2014&type=governor&filter=IA

Dems

Clinton 67%
Warren 11%
Biden 8%
someone else 14%

GOP

Huckabee 18%
Perry 17%
Bush 15%
Paul 14%
Christie 12%
someone else 24%

New Hampshire:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2014/exit-polls?year=2014&type=governor&filter=NH

Dems

Clinton 64%
Warren 18%
Biden 4%
someone else 14%

GOP

Bush 22%
Paul 21%
Christie 15%
Huckabee 10%
Perry 4%
someone else 29%

South Carolina:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2014/exit-polls?year=2014&type=governor&filter=SC

Dems

Clinton 68%
Biden 16%
Warren 5%
someone else 11%

GOP

Huckabee 20%
Bush 18%
Christie 12%
Paul 12%
Perry 11%
someone else 28%

[Mr. Morden]

The number of Clinton supporters is large enough that you can look at what %age of Clinton supporters voted for the Republican nominee for governor in each of these three states:

Branstad: 19%
Havenstein: 3%
Haley: 7%

[IceSpear]

#Hillaryunder70inIowa
#Hillaryunder70inNewHampshire
#Hillaryunder70inSouthCarolina

[Likely Voter]

I have been saying that Perry is poised for a comeback. He has been all over Iowa. Assuming he is now prepped for debates, he can quickly become the frontrunner there (especially if Huckabee doesn't run)

[eric82oslo]

Iowa:

GOP

Huckabee 18%
Perry 17%
Bush 15%
Paul 14%
Christie 12%
someone else 24%

New Hampshire:

GOP

Bush 22%
Paul 21%
Christie 15%
Huckabee 10%
Perry 4%
someone else 29%

South Carolina:

GOP

Huckabee 20%
Bush 18%
Christie 12%
Paul 12%
Perry 11%
someone else 28%

Basically what this means is that the three moderates would beat the two conservative options in every early state, even if just barely in Iowa. Let's add their percentages together:

Iowa:

Bush+Paul+Christie: 41%
Huckabee+Perry: 35%

New Hampshire:

Bush+Paul+Christie: 58%
Huckabee+Perry: 14%
(not even close)

South Carolina:

Bush+Christie+Paul: 42%
Huckabee+Perry: 31%

Now that's interesting and cuts against the conventional widsom of most pundits' and lay people's opinions.

[You kip if you want to...]

I have been saying that Perry is poised for a comeback. He has been all over Iowa. Assuming he is now prepped for debates, he can quickly become the frontrunner there (especially if Huckabee doesn't run)

I mean, even if his  debates are a train wreck again, if none of the other candidates run well with it, it's fine. Look at Rick Scott.

[Mehmentum]

Iowa:

GOP

Huckabee 18%
Perry 17%
Bush 15%
Paul 14%
Christie 12%
someone else 24%

New Hampshire:

GOP

Bush 22%
Paul 21%
Christie 15%
Huckabee 10%
Perry 4%
someone else 29%

South Carolina:

GOP

Huckabee 20%
Bush 18%
Christie 12%
Paul 12%
Perry 11%
someone else 28%

Basically what this means is that the three moderates would beat the two conservative options in every early state, even if just barely in Iowa. Let's add their percentages together:

Iowa:

Bush+Paul+Christie: 41%
Huckabee+Perry: 35%

New Hampshire:

Bush+Paul+Christie: 58%
Huckabee+Perry: 14%
(not even close)

South Carolina:

Bush+Christie+Paul: 42%
Huckabee+Perry: 31%

Now that's interesting and cuts against the conventional widsom of most pundits' and lay people's opinions.

I wouldn't call Paul a moderate.  At least my understanding is that he's a libertarian-conservative hybrid, who doesn't exactly fit the conventional conservative-moderate continuum.

[Maxwell]

I have been saying that Perry is poised for a comeback. He has been all over Iowa. Assuming he is now prepped for debates, he can quickly become the frontrunner there (especially if Huckabee doesn't run)

I mean, even if his  debates are a train wreck again, if none of the other candidates run well with it, it's fine. Look at Rick Scott.

Well, also, Rick Perry has such a low bar for success that even a bad performance would be considered exceeding expectations.

[njwes]

Basically what this means is that the three moderates would beat the two conservative options in every early state, even if just barely in Iowa. Let's add their percentages together:

Iowa:

Bush+Paul+Christie: 41%
Huckabee+Perry: 35%

New Hampshire:

Bush+Paul+Christie: 58%
Huckabee+Perry: 14%
(not even close)

South Carolina:

Bush+Christie+Paul: 42%
Huckabee+Perry: 31%

Now that's interesting and cuts against the conventional widsom of most pundits' and lay people's opinions.

Idk if I'd call Huckabee a conservative in this context; socially/religiously sure, but he has a marked populist streak that's very much out of line with establishment Republican conservative thought. Recall that in 2008 he suggested massive New Deal-style government construction projects as a way of alleviating the effects of the recession.

[Ljube]

Warren polling at respectable levels (11-18%). This is similar to or slightly worse than Obama's numbers in the same period in 2006. Can Clinton be thwarted again?

[New_Conservative]

Warren polling at respectable levels (11-18%). This is similar to or slightly worse than Obama's numbers in the same period in 2006. Can Clinton be thwarted again?

Yes

[IceSpear]

Warren polling at respectable levels (11-18%). This is similar to or slightly worse than Obama's numbers in the same period in 2006. Can Clinton be thwarted again?

Yes

Warren is in the same place as Obama was, but Hillary is much higher (in the 60s instead of in the 30s). So no.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_2008_presidential_candidates

[New_Conservative]

Warren polling at respectable levels (11-18%). This is similar to or slightly worse than Obama's numbers in the same period in 2006. Can Clinton be thwarted again?

Yes

Warren is in the same place as Obama was, but Hillary is much higher (in the 60s instead of in the 30s). So no.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_2008_presidential_candidates

#iBELIEVE

[Landslide Lyndon]

Warren polling at respectable levels (11-18%). This is similar to or slightly worse than Obama's numbers in the same period in 2006. Can Clinton be thwarted again?

Yes

Warren is in the same place as Obama was, but Hillary is much higher (in the 60s instead of in the 30s). So no.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_2008_presidential_candidates

Exactly.

Also, Warren will not run. Obama needed to be coaxed into the race by people like Reid and Schumer. Nobody is going to do the same this time with Warren.