A gross starting 2016 based on 2014 and 2012 results

[Person Man]

I base this on rough guessing and nothing else but this is what 2016 seems to be to me

[Free Bird]

Flip Colorado and Virginia and I would agree

[ShamDam]

All makes sense to me with the exception of Nevada. The governor's race there I don't think is a good litmus test, and I would say Colorado or Virginia would sooner go to the Republicans than Nevada would at this point. Plus switching Nevada puts this at 269-269 which is always fun

[KCDem]

Yea Nevada makes no sense.

[Person Man]

Wasn't there a lot of bad races in Nevada all over the place?

but here's 269-269

[Skill and Chance]

IA/OH and CO/NH likely will not be the deciding state if it is close.

[Person Man]

IA/OH and CO/NH likely will not be the deciding state if it is close.

Though, I'd imagine if the Republicans win, they are due to win big. Maybe not as big as Reagan/Bush but maybe getting to the 350-375 level where they win every swing state plus maybe a couple of moderate liberal states.

[publicunofficial]

Iowa starts out as no worse than toss-up. Using midterm waves to predict Presidential results is pointless.

[Devils30]

The demographics of this country make a big GOP win tough unless the white vote is something like 65-34%. I think the Dem starts favored in CO, WI, VA, NV, NH while IA, FL are tossups. The NV governors race was uncontested and WI was against a governor the Dems stupidly emboldened with that recall. If Walker is the nominee then put WI as a pure tossup.

[Mehmentum]

Grey states were battlegrounds in 2012 and will likely be battlegrounds again.  Light shades are states that could be competitive with the right candidates and environment.

[Devils30]

Iowa starts out as no worse than toss-up. Using midterm waves to predict Presidential results is pointless.

There's no correlation between Governor and Presidential results. I think Nate Silver did something on this awhile back.

I also wouldn't rule out Florida being right at the center as the tipping point rather than 3 points right of the country. There's really no more white voters the GOP can gain north of Orlando/Tampa, already maxed out. 2012 and 2014 had identical county maps but Obama got turnout in the cities than Crist did not. The 2016 electorate will be less white and Hillary can probably meet or exceed Obama with northern transplants, enough to carry the state.

[GLPman]

Grey states were battlegrounds in 2012 and will likely be battlegrounds again.  Light shades are states that could be competitive with the right candidates and environment.

This.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think Pennsylvania will be more of a battleground state than Virginia in 2016/ bold prediction.

[Brittain33]

I don't know of any circumstances short of a Dem landslide where Indiana should be considered a potentially competitive state. 2008 was an extraordinary circumstance between the complete meltdown of the manufacturing industry and Obama's unusual draw among non-Democratic voters in the "old northwest." Indiana with a reasonably viable economy will vote solid R.

[Vosem]

I base this on rough guessing and nothing else but this is what 2016 seems to be to me

Flip Virginia and Nevada, and you have a fine Generic Midwestern R vs. Generic D map.