Mapping the 2014 Alaska Election Day Senate Precinct Vote

Republican Dan Sullivan is currently ahead of Democrat Mark Begich by 3.6 points, 48.7%-45.1%. He won the election day in-precinct vote by a slightly larger 4.7 points, 49.1%-44.4%. Below is a map of the election day in-precinct vote by precinct. Because of Alaska's large size, however, it emphasizes rural bush areas at the expense of smaller, more populated urban precincts. It also doesn't show the full picture of the Alaska vote, as Alaska reports early, absentee and questioned votes by House District instead of by precinct. Sullivan won the absentee votes recorded so far by a slightly better 6.9 point margin, 51.7%-44.8%. However, this doesn't include any absentees from the heavily Democratic urban Juneau House District, the heavily Democratic Bush HDs 37-40, or the heavily Republican Kenai Peninsula HDs, or absentees received just before or after election day, so the final absentee percentage may vary. Begich won the in-person early vote recorded so far by 8.7 points, 52.6%-43.8%. This also doesn't include any early votes from some areas or early votes cast just before election day, though there are far fewer unrecorded early votes than absentee votes.

Note that the yellow lines depict boundaries of the current Alaska county equivalents:

Sullivan lost the election day in-person precinct vote in most rural bush precincts - big, especially in the Native Alaskan-heavy HDs 37-40. He compensated by winning many precincts in the exurban Mat-Su Valley and the Kenai Peninsula by large margins.

The yellow precinct in Southwest Alaska, 38-812 Chefornak, was supposedly won by a minor candidate. Given the blue nature of the neighboring precincts, his votes were probably transposed with Begich's, and Begich should net another 170 votes.

Unfortunately, there is no 2008 precinct shapefile available, so a direct comparison to the 2008 result statewide isn't possible. Plus, precinct and House District boundaries have changed since then due to redistricting. Below, you will find a direct comparison on the only level possible - by county equivalent, along with side-by-side precinct maps of the major inhabited areas for which shapefiles are available.

Election Day In-Precinct Vote By County Equivalent
Alaska doesn't have counties, like the lower 48. Instead, it broken up by the Census Bureau into municipalities, boroughs and Census Areas. The Census Areas generally are large geographically but contain few residents. Below is a map showing the winner of the election day in-person precinct vote by county equivalent. Note that the absentee and early vote reported so far was NOT allocated to the county equivalents. It is too early to do so and allocating those votes is an inexact science, anyway:

And here is a map of the swing in each county equivalent from 2008. Swing was calculated by subtracting the 2014 margin from the 2008 margin:

The in-person election day vote statewide swung 1.5 points to Sullivan. Anchorage actually swung to Begich by 2.3 points. Most heavily Native Alaskan bush Census Areas swung to Begich even harder - Dillingham, for example, swung by 42.4 points. Sullivan benefited from swings in traditionally Republican areas like the Kenai Peninsula (15.3 points), Mat-Su Valley (12.5 points), and in the whiter areas of Southeast Alaska.

Anchorage Precinct-Level Comparison

In general, the two maps are pretty similar. Compared to 2008, Begich made inroads in the election-day precinct vote in areas south of Midtown, including Sand Lake and Dimond. Sullivan's Marine background helped him flip the two military base precincts north of downtown. He also won areas in and around the Anchorage suburb of Eagle River to the east of those military base precincts by larger margins.

Mat-Su Precinct-Level Comparison

The Republican candidate won most Mat-Su precincts in 2008 and 2014. Sullivan managed to flip the Sutton precinct and won most other precincts by a wider margin than Stevens in 2008. Talkeetna remained Begich's column both years.

Fairbanks North Star Precinct-Level Comparison

Sullivan flipped the Eielson Air Force Base precinct, winning 84% of the vote. Otherwise, the Fairbanks 2014 map looks largely like the Fairbanks 2008 map, with Begich winning western areas of the Borough and Sullivan cleaning up in the areas near and around North Pole. Overall, the election day in-person vote swung to Sullivan by 5 points.

Juneau Precinct-Level Comparison

Unlike Stevens, Sullivan managed to win one Juneau precinct in its suburban Mendenhall Valley, Mendenhall No. 3. The other Mendhenhall Valley precincts were close, with Begich held under 50%. As usual, Sullivan got crushed in the more urban areas of Juneau. Overall, the Juneau in-person election day vote swung to Sullivan by 7.6 points. What's unclear is whether this was due to more Democrats voting early or by absentee, leaving Republicans to vote on election day.

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