PA-2016: Sestak prepares for battle

[JRP1994]

http://www.politicspa.com/pa-sen-sestak-prepares-for-battle/61699/

[Talleyrand]

Toomey's fairly popular and he seems pretty politically savvy. Assuming the environment tilts or leans Republican, I'd say he wins by the same margin as Casey in 2012. He'd probably pull it out even in a worse environment, which I don't expect.

[Free Bird]

Wow, I checked, and he is pretty popular. I thought he was just an obscure "there" like Kirk. Say, anyone notice that Toomey kind of looks like Specter himself?

[Holmes]

Democrats should be able to win this one. Clinton needs to be at the top of the ticket. It won't be easy for them but they are fully capable of winning it in a presidential year.

[KCDem]

Toomey's fairly popular and he seems pretty politically savvy. Assuming the environment tilts or leans Republican, I'd say he wins by the same margin as Casey in 2012. He'd probably pull it out even in a worse environment, which I don't expect.

[citation needed]

[Panda Express]

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omg sestak you are such a NERD! this is a pennsylvania senate race, not lord of the rings.

[SWE]

Toomey can fall, but it'd require 2016 to be an environment that at least leans Democratic, which is very unlikely.

[Holmes]

Toomey can fall, but it'd require 2016 to be an environment that at least leans Democratic, which is very unlikely.

How is that unlikely? We don't even know the candidates yet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sestak will put up a fight and we have 18 states plus CO, NV, IA, Pa and NH.  I think Clinton will easily carry Pa by 9 pts or more giving Sestak machine needed to win.

[tpfkaw]

Sestak is probably too liberal to win in Pennsylvania; it hasn't elected a Democrat who didn't run as a moderate since Joseph Clark. Sestak did come close in 2010, but now Toomey is seen as moderate instead of "extreme," and has the benefit of incumbency. Dems most likely need better candidate recruitment to beat Toomey in a neutral year.

[Vega]

Sestak is probably too liberal to win in Pennsylvania; it hasn't elected a Democrat who didn't run as a moderate since Joseph Clark. Sestak did come close in 2010, but now Toomey is seen as moderate instead of "extreme," and has the benefit of incumbency. Dems most likely need better candidate recruitment to beat Toomey in a neutral year.

Toomey is far from a moderate. Supporting background checks on extremely dangerous guns doesn't make you a moderate, it makes you sane.

[Holmes]

Appearances are everything. Ernst didn't win because she was batsh**t insane, she won because she was folksy.

[Devils30]

I think Sestak can win this fairly convincingly. Obama was never a great fit for Pennsylvania, Hillary very well could run ahead of Obama throughout western PA. Unlike coal country, it doesn't seem like Democratic support is going to totally collapse. Although it was a state and not federal race, Wolf met his statewide averages in counties like Cambria, Fayette, Greene which have trended GOP for years and Obama lost easily.

[Vega]

I think Sestak can win this fairly convincingly. Obama was never a great fit for Pennsylvania, Hillary very well could run ahead of Obama throughout western PA. Unlike coal country, it doesn't seem like Democratic support is going to totally collapse. Although it was a state and not federal race, Wolf met his statewide averages in counties like Cambria, Fayette, Greene which have trended GOP for years and Obama lost easily.

I'm inclined to agree. Minus the strong turnout and hence support for Obama in Phillie, he's been pretty unpopular all along.

Clinton will return some of the more Conservative Democrats to the Dem camp... at least for 2016.

[BaconBacon96]

Sestak should've run for Governor this year if he wanted to guarantee his political future. It will be a much harder effort to try to beat Toomey.

[Keystone Phil]

Say, anyone notice that Toomey kind of looks like Specter himself?

What.

[KCDem]

Say, anyone notice that Toomey kind of looks like Specter himself?

What.

Phil, what's your take on this joke race?

[Keystone Phil]

Say, anyone notice that Toomey kind of looks like Specter himself?

What.

Phil, what's your take on this joke race?

Haha. I hope you guys enjoy it. That's all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sestak is a rear Admiral and has a natl security background, despite his liberal stances, but we have a better shot in IL and WI and FL and NH, this would be an added race to the ones we already have, not the first one we pick up.

[henster]

What polls say that Toomey is popular? Unless his favorability look like Chuck Grassley's he's definitely vulnerable especially after his 51/49 win 2010.

[Vega]

Sestak is a rear Admiral and has a natl security background, despite his liberal stances, but we have a better shot in IL and WI and FL and NH, this would be an added race to the ones we already have, not the first one we pick up.

I don't know how Democrats have a better shot in FL or NH. Also, voters have pretty consistently shown that being a veteran doesn't get you elected.

[IceSpear]

Toomey's fairly popular and he seems pretty politically savvy. Assuming the environment tilts or leans Republican, I'd say he wins by the same margin as Casey in 2012. He'd probably pull it out even in a worse environment, which I don't expect.

So much wrong with this post. Toomey is not fairly popular, he's fairly anonymous. Granted, that poll is very old, but there's nothing which would signify the third approve, third disapprove, third don't know dynamic would have changed in the past six months. You're right that he's politically savvy. If you think Toomey could win by a Casey-like margin in presidential year turnout, you're out of your mind. There's this thing called Philadelphia, ever heard of it? It's the thing that kept him to a 51-49 win even in a midterm Republican wave. It's also completely ridiculous you're assuming 2016 will be a Republican romp just because they had a friendly midterm. Because 2010 ensured President Romney, as we all know.

[Keystone Phil]

Kathleen McGinty has been named Wolf's Chief of Staff. Take her off of the potential candidates list. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Pat doesn't need to win Casey like margins and yes he can win even with Clinton winning the state.

[DrScholl]

Sestak can win, he came fairly close even in 2010 and has a better chance with presidential level turnout. Plus, the GOP actually in control of the Senate will not be a plus for Republicans running in blue states, obstruction doesn't win crossover support.