2016 Senate Races Ratings.

[Senator Cris]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016

1) If GOP wins only one of AK and LA, the GOP majority will be 53-47.
2) If DEM wins AK and LA, the GOP majority will be 52-48.
3) If GOP wins AK and LA, the GOP majority will be 54-46.

So, to gain majority in 2016, Democrats need to hold all their seats (10) and gain:

1) If GOP majority is 52-48, Democrats need to gain 2 or 3 seats (if the VP will be Democrat, Democrats needs only 2 seats. If the VP will be Republican, Democrats needs 3 seats).
2) If GOP majority is 53-47, Democrats need to gain 3 or 4 seats.
3) If GOP majority is 54-46, Democrats need to gain 4 or 5 seats.

Please make your predictions and, if you want, predict the candidates for both parties in each race.

[Free Bird]

I'll do ones that I find relevant

MD: Retirement
WI: Tossup, Tilts D with Feingold
NH: Tilt R
FL: Lean R with Rubio, Tilt R without
PA: Tilt/Lean R
IL: Tossup, Tilt D with Madigan just from Chicago alone
IN: Strong R

[Mehmentum]

Green states are potentially competitive.  Many green states may end up not being competitive at all, but could be with the right candidates and environment.

Assuming Republicans win both Alaska and Louisiana, then Democrats will need to win 6 to 7 (depending on who wins the White House) of the green states.

[Dixie Reborn]

GOP will win AK & LA resulting in a 54-46 majority.

Alabama - Safe Republican unless incumbent Richard Shelby gets a McDaniel-esque Tea Party challenger; if said challenger wins, this race goes to Likely Republican. (My guess is the same exact events that happened in Mississippi 2014 will repeat here).

Alaska - Safe Republican, unless Begich challenges Murkowski or a Tea Party challenger topples her, making the race  in both cases. If Begich goes against a Tea Partier, the race becomes Leans Democrat.

Arizona - Tossup/Tilts Democrat if McCain is nominated, Leans Republican if anyone other than McCain is nominated.

Arkansas - Mike Beebe won't run, so Safe Republican by default.

California - Republicans theoretically could sacrifice Neel Kashkari again, but I can't see any GOPer winning this state, so Safe Democrat.

Colorado - Republicans don't have a bench here, but if they nominate some State Legislator dude parallel to Ernst in IA, this could be a race to watch - Tossup/Tilts Democrat

Connecticut - Tom Foley part deaux? Republicans don't have a bench here, so I'll call this Safe Democrat for now

Florida - Rubio will either run for president or face a Tea Party challenger, however, FL Dems unreasonably suck, so this race starts off as Leans Republican

Georgia - Unless Isakson retires (unlikely), Likely Republican

Hawaii - lol

Idaho - lol

Illinois - Kirk will get Pryor'd by Lisa Madigan, but even if she doesn't run, this will be a really tough race for the GOP, Leans Democrat atm.

Indiana - Likely Republican, because Bayh may run.

Iowa - Safe Republican; my guess is that Bruce Braley will be the sacrificial lamb who faces Grassley this cycle, and that will be a hilarious spectacle indeed.

Kansas - If Democrats couldn't beat Brownback or Roberts, they sure as hell aren't going to beat Moran. Likely Republican however, since Moran may get a Tea Party challenge.

Kentucky - If Rand Paul retires to run for President, Leans Republican unless the Democrats get an exceptional candidate.

Louisiana - Same as Arkansas really.

Maryland - My guess is this will be an open seat, so I'll put this race at Likely Democrat for now since Hogan won in 2014.

Missouri - Blunt may get primaried, but unless Akin is the nominee, I don't see this seat falling to the Democrats, Likely Republican.

Nevada - Tossup/Tilts Republican if Sandoval runs, Leans Democrat if Sandoval doesn't.

New Hampshire - Ayotte is popular, but she's in for a tough fight if/when Maggie Hassan decides to run - Pure Tossup for now.

New York - lol

North Carolina - This state will obviously be competitive on the national scene, but unless Kay Hagan runs again, I don't see Burr losing. Leans Republican without Hagan, Pure Tossup with Hagan.

North Dakota - Doubtful this becomes competitive, but Hogan is ripe for a Tea Party primary, and North Dakota frequently elects Democrats to the senate - Likely Republican.

Ohio - Rob Portman is popular moderate incumbent. He shouldn't have too much trouble with reelection, especially since, like in Florida, OH Dems suck - Likely Republican.

Oklahoma - lol

Oregon - If Republicans couldn't beat Merkley in 2014, there's no way they're beating Wyden in a presidential year. Safe Democrat.

Pennsylvania - This is turning out to be a rematch of 2010. I doubt Sestak will actually win, but I wouldn't be surprised if this seat flips - Tossup/Tilt Republican

South Carolina - lol

South Dakota - lol

Utah - If Jim Matheson runs for Senate, this race becomes Tossup/Tilt Republican, otherwise it is Safe Republican

Vermont - There's no way Leahy's losing this one - Safe Democrat.

Washington - I wish that David Reichert would run for Senate, but unfortunately he's leaning towards a gubernatorial bid. Therefore I put this race at Likely Democrat, but would automatically go to Lean Democrat if Reichert or some other strong contender emerges.

Wisconsin - Tossup/Tilt Democrat with Feingold, Tossup/Tilt Republican without.

Final prediction: Republicans gain Nevada while Democrats gain three of IL, WI, PA, or NH resulting in a 51 R 49 D senate.

[SPC]

Looking at Nate Silver's first prediction (nine months later than at this point last cycle), all 21 seats he gave a >90% chance of one party winning went that direction (although Virginia and to a lesser extent Kansas deserve some partial credit), 7/8 seats he gave a >75% chance of one party winning went that direction, 2/3 seats that he gave a >60% chance of one party winning went the opposite direction, and one party swept all the tossups. Silver performed similarly with his early projections for 2010 and 2012. With that in mind, it seems evident that at this point in the game a forecaster can only honestly divide seats into two categories: likely to be competitive (what most forecasters call the "Tossup" or "Leans" category), and unlikely to be competitive ("Likely", "Strong", or "Safe"), with any other intracategory finesse being impossible to distinguish in the long term. With that in mind, most of the seats up tend to be incumbents in a state that clearly favors their party, so they should all be listed in the latter category until evidence is put forth to suggest otherwise. On the other hand, Illinois is a clear example of an incumbent in a hostile state, and Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire are all presidential swing states and thus belong in the former category unless evidence is put forth to suggest otherwise. Of those, I believe that Portman's popularity is sufficient to merit placement in the latter category; similar logic would apply to Grassley, but his age makes a retirement a significant possibility.

While the expected outcome of that would be a net gain of 2 for the Democrats, considering that basically every Senate election since 2000 has featured one party sweeping most of the competitive seats, I would hedge with the tautological disclaimer that a Democratic year would probably result in a pickup of 4-6 seats (giving them the Senate), while a neutral or Republican year would probably result in little change in composition. This works out well for Democrats, whose probability of retaking the Senate increases relative to the steep obstacle that independent assortment would present. This is where the hack in me comes out and says that the former possibility is likely smaller due to Hillary's candidacy (and the absence of any other figure on the Democratic side who can match Obama's ability to generate enthusiasm)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope we net NH with Kuster or Hassen, Kind from WI, Bob Grahams daughter, or statewide officeholder FL and Tammy Duckworth from IL giving us 4 net.

[IceSpear]

Alaska - If Murkowski wins it's safe R, but if she's primaried and Begich runs it could go to lean R or even toss up. Likely R for now.

Arizona - Too much in flux here. Dems need a strong candidate, and who knows whether McCain will run, how bloody the primary will be, how electable his challenger will be, etc. Lean R for now.

Arkansas - Safe R unless Beebe runs, then it's a toss up. Likely R.

Colorado - Udall went down, but he actually did fairly well considering it was a GOP tsunami and he was against the best candidate the COGOP had to offer. Bennet will likely learn from Udall's mistakes, and he'll have presidential year turnout on his side. Lean D.

Florida - Lean R if Rubio runs, toss up if he doesn't. Since I believe he will, Toss Up.

Georgia - Nunn lost, but during midterm turnout and a Republican tsunami, so one probably shouldn't read too much into it. Lean R if Isakson runs, toss up if he retires. I think he'll run, so Lean R.

Illinois - Unless Dems blow this with an awful and/or corrupt nominee (which is very plausible considering it's Illinois), Kirk starts off as the underdog. Lean D pickup

Indiana - If Bayh runs this is a toss up. Coats also may retire. Either way the Republican starts off with the edge. Lean R

Iowa - Safe R if Grassley runs, toss up if he retires. Likely R

Kentucky - Safe R if Rand runs, Lean R if he doesn't. Likely R

Louisiana - Too much in flux here to say much, but it would be very tough for Dems no matter what. Likely R

Missouri - Atlas continues to overestimate how red Missouri is just because nobody wanted to poll it in 2013-2014. Blunt is not popular and could easily be beaten. Toss Up

Nevada - The elephant in the room is Sandoval, where the race becomes lean/likely R if he jumps in. But if he doesn't run, Reid/any Democrat would probably start with the edge. Toss Up

New Hampshire - This one will end up swinging whichever way the national environment does, even though it kind of bucked that trend this year. Hassan or Lynch could also run, which would put Ayotte in hot water. Toss Up

North Carolina - No, Hagan's defeat in a midterm year GOP tsunami does not ensure Burr's re-election. He's basically completely anonymous and will blow whichever way the national wind does. Toss Up

Ohio - Portman probably starts with the edge, but if the national environment favors Dems he could find himself in hot water very quickly. Lean R

Pennsylvania - Toomey won't go down easily, and will do better than whichever Republican is at the top of the ticket. But Sestak will be a very strong opponent, and it may not be enough in presidential year turnout. Toss Up

Utah - Only on here in case Matheson runs, otherwise it's safe R. Likely R

Washington - Murray is pretty close to safe, but if the environment turns toxic for Democrats and Republicans get a good candidate, she could be vulnerable. Likely D

Wisconsin - Johnson probably starts off as the underdog, particularly if Feingold runs. Lean D pickup

[PAK Man]

Alabama - Even if Shelby retires, there's no way a Democrat is winning here. Safe R

Alaska - Murkowski pretty much proved she's unbeatable in 2010. But is she safe from another primary challenge? If Begich does end up losing, I don't see him challenging her since he seems to consider her a good friend. Likely R

Arizona - Regardless if McCain retires or not, Democrats seem ready to target this seat. Likely R

Arkansas - Democrats were pretty much wiped in Arkansas this year, but polling has shown Beebe to still be popular. But whether he takes on Boozman remains to be seen. Likely R

California - Boxer will probably retire, but the Dem bench is deep enough that Republicans won't be a threat here. Safe D

Colorado - Bennet survived in 2010 and Gardner was probably the best Republican in the state. The possibility of a credible challenge still exists though. Leans D

Connecticut - Blumenthal should be fine. Safe D

Florida - A lot of this I think will depend on what Rubio wants to do regarding the presidency. Ultimately, I don't think he runs, but as a state Obama won twice, Dems will most assuredly target this one. Leans R

Georgia - Isakson is a common name that comes up when retirements are discussed, and presidential year turnout should help whoever Dems recruit. But if he stays on, it'll be a bit tougher to knock him off. Likely R

Hawaii - The only danger Schatz would be in is if Hanabusa decides to come back and challenge him again, but I don't see that happening. Safe D

Idaho - Crapo seems like he's running again, and by 2016 everybody will have forgotten about his drunk driving arrest. Safe R

Illinois - As I said in another thread, Kirk is vulnerable, but he should not be underestimated. Tossup

Indiana - Democrats would probably like to challenge this seat, but they don't really have much of a bench to do anything. Likely R

Iowa - One would think Grassley would be a lock for reelection, and he probably is. But in 2010, Grassley lost one county (Johnson) for the first time since he was first elected to the Senate in 1980. That leads me to believe a credible challenger could potentially put other counties into play. Likely R

Kansas - Moran has nothing to worry about. Safe R

Kentucky - Paul probably runs for president and this seat will probably open up. Presidential-year turnout will benefit Dems, but Kentucky is still pretty red federally. Likely R

Louisiana - Depending on what happens in the runoff, Dems might target this seat, but I'm skeptical about that. Safe R

Maryland - It's possible Mikulski could retire, but either way, Democrats hold a pretty strong grip here (the recent gubernatorial election result notwithstanding). Safe D

Missouri - The state has a decent Democratic bench and Blunt hasn't really done anything to make him stand out during his first term. That said, Missouri has been reliably Republican recently. Likely R

Nevada - I think it's safe to say that Reid would be the most endangered Democratic incumbent if he chose to run for another term. He's claiming he will, but that's hard to say. Reid's won tough races before, but if Sandoval runs, I don't see him winning. Tossup

New Hampshire - It's hard to gauge how vulnerable Ayotte is. She seems to be well-liked, but Democratic turnout in 2016 probably won't help her. Leans R

New York - Schumer can have another term if he wants one. Safe D

North Carolina - I don't know who Democrats will recruit to run in this race, but this seat will be competitive. NC has a history of electing its senators for just one or two terms (with the exception of Jesse Helms of course). Tossup

North Dakota - Nothing to see here. Safe R

Ohio - I think the only way this seat is competitive is if Portman decides to run for president or is someone's VP pick. He seems like he's got a decent hold on his seat. Likely R

Oklahoma - Lankford should get his full term without a problem. Safe R

Oregon - Wyden shouldn't have any problems here. Safe D

Pennsylvania - Sestak has already declared his candidacy, and although Toomey has done a good job of moderating himself (at least from this outsider's perspective) he still just barely won in a good year for the GOP. Tossup

South Carolina - Another 2014 special election winner up for a full term in a safe seat. Safe R

South Dakota - If Thune leaves this seat to run for president or VP, Dems might make a go for this. But after the recruitment disaster of 2014, they may think twice about it. Rounds in 2020 might be more appealing with a stronger candidate. Safe R

Utah - Even if Lee is primaried, he'll be favored to win here. I think if Matheson does run for anything, it'll be governor. Safe R

Vermont - Leahy's got this seat for as long as he wants it. Safe D

Washington - Murray has already announced she's running for reelection, and she should be fine in a presidential year. Safe D

Wisconsin - Johnson was one of the first incumbents to announce his plans for reelection, and he probably did knowing how vulnerable he is. Democrats tend to do pretty well in Wisconsin during presidential years, and after not defeating Walker in 2014, Democrats are probably wanting to take out Johnson more than ever. Tossup

[ElectionsGuy]

For right now...

[Vega]

I hope that in Alaska, instead of rehashing Begich, the Democrats go with Scott Kawasaki - a very popular Japanese-American State Senator.

He seems like a long shot at first, but I think he could win a U.S. Senate seat for the Democrats... if not in 2016, in the future.

[Dixie Reborn]

I hope that in Alaska, instead of rehashing Begich, the Democrats go with Scott Kawasaki - a very popular Japanese-American State Senator.

He seems like a long shot at first, but I think he could win a U.S. Senate seat for the Democrats... if not in 2016, in the future.

If I were him I'd run against Don Young.

[Vega]

I hope that in Alaska, instead of rehashing Begich, the Democrats go with Scott Kawasaki - a very popular Japanese-American State Senator.

He seems like a long shot at first, but I think he could win a U.S. Senate seat for the Democrats... if not in 2016, in the future.

If I were him I'd run against Don Young.

That or Governor next turn.

[user12345]

Washington Post did a good article about the 2016 Senate elections. http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/can-republicans-hold-on-to-senate-majority-in-2016-theres-reason-for-doubt/2014/11/09/e3c18a70-6825-11e4-b053-65cea7903f2e_story.html?Post+generic=%3Ftid%3Dsm_twitter_washingtonpost