Talleyrand's 2016 Senate Ratings

[Talleyrand]

Safe Republican (11)

Alabama - Richard Shelby is running for re-election, but considering his age, it seems a distinct possibility he might not end up doing so in the end. If he doesn't, Martha Roby will win the seat. Nothing to see here.

Arkansas- Mark Pryor lost by seventeen points in 2014 and Blanche Lincoln lost by twenty-one points in 2010. While some might argue this race might be more competitive if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic  nominee, considering how much her husband was able to affect the dynamics of the two aforementioned elections, this seems unlikely. Outgoing Governor Mike Beebe is popular, but he'll be sixty-nine in 2016 and it's likely his numbers wouldn't hold up in a national race. Boozman is only in his first term, but he's had bouts of extremely poor health and his fundraising isn't great. He's a distinct retirement possibility, but he'll probably be replaced with someone like Tim Griffin or Rick Crawford.

Idaho- Mike Crapo is running again, and he might be primaried by Raul Labrador. Both would win the general election easily.

Iowa- Chuck Grassley seems intent on running again. He'd easily cut down even the top Democratic contenders, such as Tom Vilsack.

Kansas- Jerry Moran is running again after leading the Republicans to nine gains this cycle. Considering how even Pat Roberts romped to a double digit win, he has it.

Louisiana- David Vitter is running for Governor, and he should win. Considering how well Landrieu did this year, I don't see any way the Democrats can make this competitive, even if Mary or Mitch run. I don't know much about the Republican bench in Louisiana, but I'd assume that Charles Boustany or Steve Scalise would have the top pickings here.

North Dakota- Hoeven is extremely popular and will probably win with over 70% of the vote.

Oklahoma- Lankford wins his six year term easily.

South Carolina- Tim Scott will win comfortably like he did this year. No serious Democratic contenders in this state- not that they'd give him much trouble in the first place.

South Dakota- Thune is being touted as a presidential candidate, but he'd just become the next Pawlenty. He will almost certainly run for re-election, and would win easily if he chose to do so. If he retires, Herseth Sandlin might put up a fun race, but she'd be a major underdog to Kristi Noem.

Utah- Jim Matheson might run here, but it seems extremely doubtful he'd be able to make it a race by the end of a long campaign. Considering how he passed on running for re-election, it seems unlikely he'd make a gamble and run here. A Republican will win the general election here, but it remains to be seen whether Lee can hold on in a primary.

Likely Republican (6)

Alaska- Begich put up a great fight this year, but the headwinds were too strong. He'd make a decent candidate if Murkowski were to lose the primary, but it looks like she should hold on considering the lack of a decent challenger. If she's the nominee, this is a safe seat. Otherwise it's a wildcard.

Georgia- I have no idea if Isakson will run again, but if he does, he would be difficult to dislodge. If he retires, this would become a free-for-all. Jack Kingston might be a good Republican candidate, while someone like Jason Carter or John Barrow would be decent for the Democrats. However, considering how all the hype about Democratic candidates in this year's election ended up, I'm skeptical that Democrats could actually pick this one up.

Indiana- Dan Coats seems like a retiree, but Republicans have a lot of good candidates here. Someone like Marlin Stutzman would be extremely formidable. The only reason that this isn't safe is due to a potential candidacy by Evan Bayh, who'd make it a tossup. Other candidates, like Jonathan Weinzapfel, might be able to make it somewhat interesting too. Yet remembering how Donnelly only won in 2012 after his opponent made a dumb rape comment, this one should stay Republican.

Kentucky- Grimes was destroyed this year against an unpopular incumbent. Rand Paul is popular incumbent and would have no trouble holding this seat. If he runs for president, Thomas Massie, Andy Barr, or James Comer would all be good candidates to replace him. Democrats have a lot of good candidates though, including Jack Conway, Crit Luallen, and Adam Edelen. It's still Kentucky though, so they'd have a steep battle ahead of them.

Missouri- This is a rapidly reddening state and Blunt has the advantage of incumbency. Democrats, due to Todd Akin, still have a good bench though. Clint Zweifel or Jason Kander might be able to cause Blunt some trouble, but barring an unforeseen wave, he should hold on.

Ohio- Portman is very popular and an extremely skilled politician, plus the Ohio Democratic Party is an incompetent joke. Due to the attention this race is going to get in a presidential year, he can't take anything for granted, but it's not difficult to imagine Portman dispatching Betty Sutton or some other B-list candidate with room to spare.

Lean Republican (8 )

Arizona- For whatever reason, McCain is now widely hated. If he retires, the Republicans could run David Schweikert or Matt Salmon. Luckily for him, it looks like only joke candidates could hurt him in a primary. The Democrats would much rather face McCain, and in that case I could see Mark Kelly or Kyrsten Sinema as decent candidates. Even so, they'd have to face a long history of Arizona being fool's gold for their party in federal elections.

Florida- Rubio is not going to run for President, but if he does, he'd probably be replaced by Adam Putnam or Pam Bondi. Republicans would still be favored considering the pitiful state of the Florida Democratic Party, especially if (God forbid), Crist runs. However, Patrick Murphy might propel this into a very competitive race. We'll have to wait and see.

Illinois- Kirk is being severely underestimated on this forum. Pat Quinn, who won the year Kirk was first elected, lost easily on Tuesday, and Democrats are performing quite badly outside of the Chicago area across the state. Kirk would be favored against all Democrats with the possible exceptions of Cheri Bustos and Lisa Madigan, the latter of whom would make this an automatic tossup. But right now, I'd bet money on Kirk pulling it out.

Nevada- The much-famed Reid machine was either not out on Tuesday or it miserably failed. That said, Republicans swept Nevada and there are a host of people who could take on Reid. Sandoval would probably scare him into retirement, and he'd be an underdog against Joe Heck or Brian Krolicki. His luck will probably run out this time.

New Hampshire- Ayotte has decent approvals, but so did Shaheen throughout this year's election. It seems like she should be favored, but she'd receive a tough fight if Maggie Hassan were to run. I don't see anyone else who has a chance of toppling her though.

North Carolina- Burr is an anonymous Senator, and had an underwhelming performance in 2010, so this might be a vulnerable seat. Kay Hagan would be a poor candidate here, considering how she lost to a mediocre candidate running a mediocre campaign on 2014, plus she'll be sixty-four in 2016. Janet Cowell, Roy Cooper, or Heath Shuler might give Burr somewhat of a headache. He should win unless it's a good Democratic year though, although not by an impressive margin.

Pennsylvania- Pat Toomey has been pretty moderate during his tenure and is doing all the right things to win re-election. This state will be a hot battleground presidentially, like Ohio, and he's likely to get at least somewhat of a stiff challenge from Joe Sestak, so those will be challenges he'll have to overcome.

Wisconsin- Another race which forum Democrats seem to think will easily go their way, but I disagree on. Johnson is not a great fit for Wisconsin, but his political views are basically identical to Scott Walker's, and he's able to self-fund pretty decently. Russ Feingold or Ron Kind would make this close, but Johnson could still pull it out. Unless we get a clearer picture here, I have him as a tentative favorite.

Lean Democratic (1)

Colorado- Bennet lost the Senate and a homestate colleague this year, but he ran a very good campaign in 2010. He should have another close race in 2016, considering his middling numbers and the tilt of the state, and someone like Mike Coffman could unseat him under the right circumstances.

Likely Democratic (2)

Washington- Murray won in 2010, and the Republican bench is dwindling, but she's not beloved back home and someone like Rob McKenna, Dave Reichert, or Jaime Herrera Beutler could give her heartburn. She still has a clear advantage though, and will be able to run a powerful campaign.

Oregon- Ron Wyden has this locked up if he runs, but if he retires, there could be some good Republican candidates here. Greg Walden and Bruce Starr come to mind, but they'd still face long odds in a state where a highly-touted Republican nominee lost by seventeen points this year.

Safe Democratic (6)

California- Boxer is going to retire and create a free-for-all out here. I'd guess Newsom or Harris will end up taking it in the end, but one potential issue here is that two Republicans finish at the top in the jungle primary, guaranteeing a Republican win. This is a slim possibility, but it almost happened in this year's Controller race.

Connecticut- Blumenthal is going to win easily.

Hawaii- Schatz narrowly missed breaking 70% this year. Maybe he hits the mark in 2016.

Maryland- I am hoping a redux of the 2014 gubernatorial race does not occur when Mikulski retires, but that seems like a one-off. I'm guessing Chris van Hollen, Heather Mizeur, and maybe Chris Sarbanes have top picks here.

New York- Schumer will win a fourth term, and might become Democratic leader after the election.

Vermont- Leahy will win, and if he completes the term, will become the third longest serving Senator in history.

OVERALL PROJECTION- Republicans + 1

I think this could end up being a reverse 2012, where Democrats think they have a great shot of winning the majority, but ultimately fumble to the extent that may have a net loss of seats. I honestly don't think there will be much turnover.

Thoughts? Suggestions? Comments?

[Miles]

We get it, you don't like Democrats. Just get a blue avatar already.

[Talleyrand]

We get it, you don't like Democrats. Just get a blue avatar already.

I don't see any evidence for that assertion, unless you equate liking Democrats with predicting good results for them. Even if that's what you think, my senate predictions this year were on the dot, while my gubernatorial predictions actually overestimated Democrats.

[Maxwell]

Krolicki is a bad candidate, and he would probably lose to Harry Reid. I'd move at least Wisconsin and Illinois to toss-up, even though both incumbents are very strong campaigners.

[Talleyrand]

Krolicki is a bad candidate, and he would probably lose to Harry Reid. I'd move at least Wisconsin and Illinois to toss-up, even though both incumbents are very strong campaigners.

I actually think they're more "tossup" than "lean republican", but I wanted to put races on either side of a dividing line based on how I thought would ultimately win, if that makes sense.

[Ljube]

Spot on prediction.
The only remark is I think the fossils (aka Mikulski) aren't retiring.

[Talleyrand]

Spot on prediction.
The only remark is I think the fossils (aka Mikulski) aren't retiring.

I'm sure at least one or two will retire.

[KCDem]

Concern trolling grade 0/10. Better luck next time.

[Dixie Reborn]

These seem too optimistic, but I'll accept them.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It seems fair enough, apart from Kirk. Maybe saying he's DOA is hyperbole, but the guy is extremely anonymous in his state and would be swinging against an enormous current on a Presidential turnout. Someone like Johnson doesn't really need crossover votes - he just needs the GOP candidate to put up a fight in Wisconsin to sweep him over the line. That's a luxury Kirk does not have; and he doesn't seem well-known enough to have Collins-esque crossover support.

So I'd say [no net change], with the proviso that a lot more GOP seats are volatile.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Leans R
AK, AR, ND, La, NC

Tossup
NV, IL, PA, FL, WI, CO

LD

Wa, CA

[IceSpear]

>Using midterm results to forecast a presidential year

I'm sure you also thought Obama would lose in a landslide in 2012, because Toomey, Ayotte, Johnson, Portman, and Rubio were all elected.

[Talleyrand]

CrabCake, I think Kirk is still the most vulnerable incumbent aside from Reid, yeah. I'm going out on a bit of a limb by saying he holds on, but since I want to avoid "tossup", I put him in Lean R.

IceSpear, I am referencing the 2014 elections, yes, but if you look closely, that isn't reflected in how I analyzed these races for the most part. It is fair to say that I am expecting a more Republican environment than what seems to be the consensus right now.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Leans R
AK, AR, ND, La, NC

Tossup
NV, IL, PA, FL, WI, CO

LD

Wa, CA

Florida can only be a tossup if the Democrats actually have a candidate who can beat Rubio-which they don't. Pat Murphy would lose to Rubio, though he would hold Nelson's seat in 2018 against just about any Republican nominee.

[Mister Mets]

I think it's a good summary.

I'd quibble a bit with results. If you have eight races that lean Republican, it stands to reason that one or two of those races would still go to the Democrats.

You forgot one Senate seat though....the Vice-President.

[Talleyrand]

I think it's a good summary.

I'd quibble a bit with results. If you have eight races that lean Republican, it stands to reason that one or two of those races would still go to the Democrats.

You forgot one Senate seat though....the Vice-President.

Yeah, there are a lot more offensive opportunities for Democrats than Republicans for sure, especially when the former haven't made a net gain in this class since Ronald Reagan was president. It will all come down to environment.

[IceSpear]

It is fair to say that I am expecting a more Republican environment than what seems to be the consensus right now.

Why?

[windjammer]

Well, that sounds about right Talleyrand.
Although you're really underestimating Reid.

1) Sandoval has now a complete republican legislature, he will be forced to sign the republican agenda. So he won't be beloved by the left anymore (he's currently even beloved by Lief,...)
2) There wasn't a problem with the Reid machine: simply the reid machine wasn't used because Sandoval was too much popular.
3) Sandoval isn't even sure to run.

[Talleyrand]

Why?

I don't expect Obama's numbers to go up much, if at all by 2016, and that's going to be a drag on the eventual presidential nominee. Basically, I think people will be looking for a breath of "fresh air" and find that in some Republicans. And I don't think Hillary is going to be immune to whatever drags a Democrat would face.

Windjammer, I think it's possible that Sandoval won't run, but considering he has a Republican successor lined up in Nevada and how much the Republicans will want him to enter the race, I think he'd be hard-pressed to decline. You make a point about the Reid machine- that's the main reason I wouldn't count Reid out.

I think Sandoval is popular at this point that even if he signs a few more right-wing bills than he has with a Democratic legislature, he should be okay.

[SPC]

1) Sandoval has now a complete republican legislature, he will be forced to sign the republican agenda. So he won't be beloved by the left anymore (he's currently even beloved by Lief,...)

Why would he be forced to do so? Could not Sandoval veto some of the actions of the Republican legislature so as to solidify his image as an independent thinker? I highly doubt he would be vulnerable to a primary challenge even if he did act as a centrist; Sharron Angle only got 40% against two crappy opponents.

[windjammer]

1) Sandoval has now a complete republican legislature, he will be forced to sign the republican agenda. So he won't be beloved by the left anymore (he's currently even beloved by Lief,...)

Why would he be forced to do so? Could not Sandoval veto some of the actions of the Republican legislature so as to solidify his image as an independent thinker? I highly doubt he would be vulnerable to a primary challenge even if he did act as a centrist; Sharron Angle only got 40% against two crappy opponents.

He would pull a Mcrory.

[Mr. Smith]

You're really overestimating Ron Johnson, and if Feingold returns seriously underestimating him.

Also given how Corbett got booted in this GOP wave, I don't see Toomey making it when things actually favor the Democrats.

And Hagan ran an excellent campaign, handily the best campaign of all the Senate Democrats being booted out.

And as for Missouri, Koster could kill Blunt easily with all the cards played right.

[IceSpear]

Why?

I don't expect Obama's numbers to go up much, if at all by 2016, and that's going to be a drag on the eventual presidential nominee. Basically, I think people will be looking for a breath of "fresh air" and find that in some Republicans. And I don't think Hillary is going to be immune to whatever drags a Democrat would face.

You have to keep in mind the GOP now owns Congress's 10% approval rating.

[Ljube]

Why?

I don't expect Obama's numbers to go up much, if at all by 2016, and that's going to be a drag on the eventual presidential nominee. Basically, I think people will be looking for a breath of "fresh air" and find that in some Republicans. And I don't think Hillary is going to be immune to whatever drags a Democrat would face.

You have to keep in mind the GOP now owns Congress's 10% approval rating.

The people will still blame the President for anything that goes wrong. Compare with 2006-2008.

[Bigby]

Why?

I don't expect Obama's numbers to go up much, if at all by 2016, and that's going to be a drag on the eventual presidential nominee. Basically, I think people will be looking for a breath of "fresh air" and find that in some Republicans. And I don't think Hillary is going to be immune to whatever drags a Democrat would face.

You have to keep in mind the GOP now owns Congress's 10% approval rating.

Maybe, BUT people like their own Congressman. They just think everyone else in Congress is crazy.