Preliminary 2015 and 2016 Gubernatorial Ratings

[ElectionsGuy]

Jay Nixon, Steve Bashear, Bobby Jindaland Earl Tomblin are all term-limited. Vermont, New Hampshire, and Washington are only likely D due to unimpressive wins by the incumbent, Indiana probably the same reason. Louisiana is Likely R due to a possible Landrieu run.

[KCDem]

West Virginia, Kentucky, and Kentucky are Safe Republican. North Carolina is Likely Republican.

[tpfkaw]

I'd have Delaware as likely D; Ken Simpler might run. Also Utah as likely R since there's been some speculation that Jim Matheson will run.

[NewYorkExpress]

Montana is a Tossup, Missouri is Lean R, Kentucky, West Virginia and Louisiana are Safe R.

[PAK Man]

Delaware - Beau Biden is a good candidate but there's a couple candidates who might make it competitive. Likely D

Indiana - Pence had a very unimpressive victory in 2012, but he should be fine in 2016, especially since John Gregg passed on a rematch. Likely R

Kentucky - Democrats and Republicans both have decent candidates, and while the state elects Republicans federally, it's Democratic-friendly at the state level. Tossup

Louisiana - It's hard to see a Democrat winning in Louisiana, but the right Democrat could make the race competitive. Likely R

Mississippi - Bryant should cruise to his second term. Safe R

Missouri - Like Kentucky, there are decent candidates on both side of the aisle and there's too little known for me to make a guess here. Tossup

Montana - Bullock won a close race in 2012, and though Montana has been known to be nice to Democrats, I'm expecting something similar in 2016. Tossup

New Hampshire - There's uncertainty here in that Hassan may run for senate in 2016. But if she runs again she'll probably be fine. Leans D

North Carolina - Roy Cooper is pretty much in, and McCrory's ratings haven't been the greatest. Presidential turnout should help Cooper as well. Tossup

North Dakota - This seat is Dalrymple's for as long as he wants it. Safe R

Utah - As I said in the senate thread, I think Jim Matheson is more likely to challenge Herbert than Lee. If he jumps in, this will be a real race. Likely R

Vermont - Shumlin's apparent victory this year was unimpressive, but he should be fine in 2016. Likely D

Washington - Inslee had a tough race in 2012, but Washington has a long streak of electing Democrats in close races. I expect he'll hold on in 2016. Leans D

West Virginia - The state is slipping away from Democrats, but Shelley Moore Capito was basically the entire West Virginia Republican Party. I expect the GOP to mount a serious challenge here, but there's still enough Democrats in the state to make it interesting. Tossup

[solarstorm]

I think it would be pretty ironic if Grimes and Tennant would become governors of their home states.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

David Vitter and Mary Landrieu should run against each other for governor in 2015 so their mutual hatred of each other can be made even more public than it already is.

[Flake]

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Something like this (30% shade for Lean, 50% for Likely, 70% for Solid):

[SWE]

Assuming all incumbents eligible for reelection run:

30% shade for Lean, 50% for Likely, 70% for Solid