Are you surprised that CO-SEN ended up way closer than IA-SEN?

[Eraserhead]

If they had had another couple of weeks to get their sh*t straight, it looks like the Udall campaign would have eeked out a win.

Braley was 100% doomed it seems though.

Discuss.

[MarkUterus]

No. Udall was an incumbent Democrat running in a VBM state with a winning gubernatorial candidate from his party running ahead of him. Braley did not have any of that.

[Matty]

No. Colorado is a blue state. Iowa is a purple state.

[moderatevoter]

No. Colorado is a more polarized state than Iowa. Both parties have a high floor, but low ceiling.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

No. Colorado is a blue state. Iowa is a purple state.

Calling colorado blue is putting it on the same level as MD. You can make a case for purple-blue status, but not full blue. You need the races to be almost always uncompetitive for that, which doesn't describe CO at all.

[Nichlemn]

No. Colorado is a blue state. Iowa is a purple state.

lolno. Colorado was the tipping point state for Obama, with a smaller winning margin than Iowa.

[Sol]

Yes, actually. Ernst was a much weaker opponent than Gardner, and the early voting looked like it had already canceled out a D victory in CO.

Just more evidence in favor of the relative competence of the Colorado Dems, I guess.

[Brittain33]

Yes, mainly because of the tracking of early voting showing the electorate much more R than in 2010 and the polls showing Gardner up so much, and conversely, because of polls showing early voters voting Braley by improbably big margins.

How did the electorate land in Colorado at the end of election day? We went into election day much more R than in 2010, I think.

[Free Bird]

No. Colorado is a blue state. Iowa is a purple state.

Lol

[Maxwell]

No. Colorado is a blue state. Iowa is a purple state.

Colorado is a blue state hahahahaha

[Senator Cris]

No. Colorado is a blue state. Iowa is a purple state.

Colorado is a blue state hahahahaha

Senate: 1 D 1 R
US House: 4 R 3 D
Governor: D
State Senate: R (18 R 16 D 1 Undecided)
State House: D (33 D 32 R)
SoS: R
AG: R

Not exactly a blue state...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Iowa has more swing voters in the current environment, so no.

[Sbane]

No, but the fact that Udall ended up winning Jefferson county was get surprising to me.

Also, the big swing to the GOP in the Midwest was very surprising to me. I don't think you can explain all of that with low turnout. Either Obama has been doing better in the Midwest than the Democratic baseline in the Midwest or something has changed in the last 2 years.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Midwest in general has a lot of swing voters (I was about to add 'in the current environment' again, but when hasn't that been true?) and swing voters who have not had a great time of it materially speaking. There was also a notably big swing there in 2010 and 2006.

[Sbane]

The Midwest in general has a lot of swing voters (I was about to add 'in the current environment' again, but when hasn't that been true?) and swing voters who have not had a great time of it materially speaking. There was also a notably big swing there in 2010 and 2006.

Yeah, of course. But one of the talking points of the Democrats has been that most of the disaster can be explained by lower turnout. That certainly doesn't explain things in the Midwest. They swung in 2010 but re-elected Obama in 2012. They have swung right back this year. Are they coming back to the Democrats in 2016 or are they giving the Republicans the presidency?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, of course. But one of the talking points of the Democrats has been that most of the disaster can be explained by lower turnout.

That is the default Democratic explanation for all bad results and should be mostly ignored.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well, exactly. No one knows yet. This is why elections are interesting.

[Sbane]

Yup, all eyes on Iowa and Wisconsin.

[backtored]

No. Colorado is a blue state. Iowa is a purple state.

Nope. Colorado has performed better than Iowa for the GOP in the last two presidential elections. Colorado is absolutely not a blue state

[backtored]

Yes, mainly because of the tracking of early voting showing the electorate much more R than in 2010 and the polls showing Gardner up so much, and conversely, because of polls showing early voters voting Braley by improbably big margins.

How did the electorate land in Colorado at the end of election day? We went into election day much more R than in 2010, I think.

Something like R+5 I think. Democrats' Election Day turnout was amazing. So 2014 was better for Democrats than in 2010, and still the GOP had a great night except for the tight gubernatorial race.

[Torie]

In other news, NY may have the most swing voters of all (particularly upstate). It just isn't that ideological a state. It is just all masked by its overall heavy Dem leaning. The Dems were just trashed in upstate NY, losing everything that was not totally nailed down, up and down the ballot, and almost losing NY-25, which was supposed to be nailed down tight. Big swings on Long Island as well.

[IceSpear]

In other news, NY may have the most swing voters of all (particularly upstate). It just isn't that ideological a state. It is just all masked by its overall heavy Dem leaning. The Dems were just trashed in upstate NY, losing everything that was not totally nailed down, up and down the ballot, and almost losing NY-25, which was supposed to be nailed down tight. Big swings on Long Island as well.

Huh? Dems only lost two seats in upstate NY, one of which was practically handed to the GOP (NY-21). The other one was Maffei, who is a horrendous candidate and has been since 2006. Maloney who you were insisting would lose also won.

[backtored]

Yup, all eyes on Iowa and Wisconsin.

I am all for making a play for Wisconsin and certainly Iowa. But Iowa has only gone Republican once in a presidential race in THIRTY years. Wisconsin hasn't gone Republican even once in 30 years. The GOP keeps telling itself that it can lose Virginia and Colorado because they'll somehow finally get it done in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Baloney. If Republicans can't figure out Virginia and Colorado then they will start losing Georgia, NC, and Arizona, too. And that's really game over.

I am reasonably confident that VA, CO, and VA will be the top target in 2016 for Republicans behind the obvious Florida and Ohio. Unless Scott Walker is the nominee and then the Midwest probably comes into greater focus.

[Torie]

In other news, NY may have the most swing voters of all (particularly upstate). It just isn't that ideological a state. It is just all masked by its overall heavy Dem leaning. The Dems were just trashed in upstate NY, losing everything that was not totally nailed down, up and down the ballot, and almost losing NY-25, which was supposed to be nailed down tight. Big swings on Long Island as well.

Huh? Dems only lost two seats in upstate NY, one of which was practically handed to the GOP (NY-21). The other one was Maffei, who is a horrendous candidate and has been since 2006. Maloney who you were insisting would lose also won.

Mahoney's win was very impressive (I suspect he is a very talented politician), and the GOP swing was more muted in the northern NYC burbs. I think the Dems lost 5 state senate seats upstate, and nearly lost my local assembly district, which is quite heavily Dem in a Dem gerrymander. The only upstate Congress Dems left are the Buffalo and Albany seats, and, barely, the Rochester seat.

[Maxwell]

No. Colorado is a blue state. Iowa is a purple state.

Colorado is a blue state hahahahaha

Senate: 1 D 1 R
US House: 4 R 3 D
Governor: D
State Senate: R (18 R 16 D 1 Undecided)
State House: D (33 D 32 R)
SoS: R
AG: R

Not exactly a blue state...

the laughter indicated i didn't think that colorado is a blue state.

[Mister Mets]

Both states are pretty close (Obama's margin of victory was a fraction of a percent higher in Colorado than Iowa in 2012) and Colorado had an incumbent Democrat.